Category: Cryptoes

Recommended crypto reads – and a soon-to-be-published podcast

A friend and I are starting a crypto podcast because we’re middle aged crypto nerds who want to hear ourselves talk.

I’ll be posting the links here, and often. We’ve already recorded 4 episodes and will publish them soon, and will also invite guests in the future

There’ll be brief takes on the state of the market and recent crypto news, but the podcast focus will be crypto-related media (like blogs, tweets, and podcasts) that we recommend and why. There’s just an endless torrent of good content, and we want to get wet and then share the water drops (great metaphor right)

Here are some examples that I’ll probably mention in future episodes:

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Reality check on state of crypto today and what causes the bubbles / cycles:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1592177325906726912.html

Imagine a world where the most active investors in traditional finance are Nasdaq Ventures and the NYSE, and the financial information on those listed securities is opaque. That is our reality in the crypto sector. This is what we have created

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Approximately 9 minutes into this episode of All-In, Chamath gives the best explanation of what’s happening with the SBF / FTX fraud circus and mainstream media’s role in it:

https://pca.st/episode/5486ca04-b7c7-4ec8-a57e-65128ed0da7f?t=587.0

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Perhaps my favorite bitcoin analyst, David has rare perspective from decades in tradfi and a unique lens to look at bitcoin price action (namely, focusing on whales):

https://david06280728.substack.com/p/month-end-analysis-b95

That said, and as I intimated above, it is always darkest before dawn and investor sentiment is as dark now as at any point over my thirty years of investing. I suspect a lot of readers did not experience firsthand how frightening the dot-com bubble and GFC were, but I did, so I can assure you that the FUD then was no less compelling than the FUD right now

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Philosophical reflection on crypto market cycles and why we’re here

https://www.visary.io/next/

Free will perhaps exists on micro levels – individual and local – but on a broader scale, the human condition seems to be solidified in its ways and patterns. Markets are a great example where this constantly plays out – especially in the relatively nascent, less-regulated, more free-market crypto space where multiple cycles have occurred, all culminating and correcting in eerily similar ways.

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Thorough explanation of the short and long-term debt cycles as popularized by Ray Dalio (through a bitcoiner’s lens)

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/the-conclusion-of-the-long-term-debt-cycle-and-the-rise-of-bitcoin

In a free-market capitalist economic system, the most important pricing mechanism is that of money. When there is a monopolist institution setting the price of money, the market is inherently not “free.” There is nothing free about reducing the price of money whenever there is an economic downturn, including the most recent injections of hundreds of billions and now trillions of dollars into financial markets whenever a major liquidation of malinvestment occurs.

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One of the more thorough newsletters covering crypto news with brief but thoughtful takes:

https://page1.substack.com/p/round-tripping-677

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Ending with the tooting of my own crypto horn:

https://kevinhabits.com/when-things-become-free/

https://kevinhabits.com/bitcoin-is-a-simple-asset-david-andolfatto/

Random thoughts on the FTX scam implosion fraud

I’ve been following the FTX bankruptcy like a mouse in a cheese cupboard. Aside from bankruptcy lawyers, the clear beneficiary of this whole saga is Elon Musk because crypto Twitter usage must be through the roof if my own recent addiction is remotely indicative.

Some half baked thoughts as this saga continues to unfold, thoughts that I wrote in 30 minutes and are worth exactly what you paid for them:

I’m surprised that BTC and ETH – the ONLY two blue chips in crypto (and don’t let anyone mislead you into thinking there’s any other token that qualifies) – have held up fairly well, price-wise. Of course that may change before I even hit publish

SBF’s level of psychopathy is off the charts. Apparently the term “psychopath” is more accurate than “sociopath” because psychopaths have better emotional regulation and can appear more charming, whereas sociopaths are prone to rage and more erratic behavior. Perhaps SBF is transitioning now from psychopath > sociopath. I’m just a blogger what do I know

Prescription drugs are powerful. There’s a reason they’re “prescription”. And even with all that research and regulation, we still barely understand what they do to our bodies and minds. But it’s clear they’re doing something, perhaps quite powerful, perhaps quite permanent.

Crypto will survive and thrive in the long-term. Nothing fundamental has changed. This was a centralized failure, a massive bank fraud and trading scam. There’s a reason the two most mentioned comparables are Enron (a public corporation) and Madoff (a Wall Street investment fund).

Bear cycles are ALWAYS more painful than you expect. History never repeats, but it rhymes. In 2014-16, it was exchange failure and bitcoin clones. In 2018-2020, it was ICOs and China ban and regulatory fud. In this cycle, it’s comprehensive institutional failure – lenders, exchanges, and funds. Crypto has problems, many of them, and the criticisms are deserved. But the tradfi water we’re floating in is secured by a very fragile opaque aquarium. Swimmers beware.

The end game is approaching with accelerating speed, both in the broader global financial system, and for crypto’s own place inside it. This debacle will prompt hard questions and even harder regulations, but crypto continues its march towards global adoption and growing usage. The crypto tail increasingly wags the tradfi dog. Meanwhile the tradfi dog appears more and more sickly, limping behind its Central Bank owner.

Prices could dip another 50% from here, or we could see a massive wick up through some combination of a short squeeze, flight to quality (altcoins>BTC & ETH), Fed slowdown, and survivors’ euphoria. I don’t know. And if you have patience, it doesn’t really matter.

“Another hard money renaissance will occur in our lifetimes”

I agree:

I’m placing my bets that another hard money renaissance will occur in our lifetimes, as many have before, and that Bitcoin will be a key beneficiary. I don’t believe it will be the /only/ money, but that its role for the generations ahead will be an important one.

Source: https://alphabetasoup.ghost.io/a-penny-spent-a-penny-lent/

And Stable Diffusion’s take on “hard money renaissance, art by leonardo da vinci”:

Bitcoin is a “simple” asset – David Andolfatto

Oldie but goodie — Andolfatto is SVP of the Fed Reserve Bank of Louis:

I think that Bitcoin could be the world’s next great safe asset. At least, it certainly seems to have all the properties that are desired in a safe asset. Importantly, it is a “simple” asset. It’s simple in the sense that it’s a pure fiat object–the monetary objects (called /bitcoin/) constitute no legal claim against anything of intrinsic value. Bitcoin is simply a record-keeping technology (and economists have known for a long time that money is memory). It pays no interest. Possession corresponds to ownership (unless counterparties are involved).

Source: https://andolfatto.blogspot.com/2016/03/is-bitcoin-safe-asset.html

And below is “bitcoin as a simple asset” according to Stable Diffusion: