Tuur Demeester’s great report on bitcoin: “In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable”

Tuur’s last 2 (or 3?) reports have also come during bear markets, and he’s called his shots almost to perfection.

Original report: https://unchained.com/how-to-position-bitcoin-boom

I did a 7-minute-ish podcast deep dive: https://twodegens.buzzsprout.com/2073784/12901355-5-minute-crypto-deep-dive-on-tuur-demeester-s-bitcoin-report-adamant-unchained

And here were some of my favorite excerpts (all copied verbatim):

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During this accumulation phase, we expect for bitcoin to trade in a range of $22,000 to $42,000, until a new multi-year bull market pushes it well north of $120,000.

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Today is no different—we see extraordinarily strong fundamentals, robust and sustained technological progress, and an unparalleled level of conviction among long-time bitcoin investors, all ready to fuel a global buying spree and sustained new adoption.

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Investing in bitcoin, we believe, is like having the ability to buy shares of a general “Internet ETF” back in the early 1990s, or like being able to buy undeveloped land on Manhattan Island at the start of the Industrial Revolution—it’s the opportunity of a lifetime.

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On a multi-year timeframe, bitcoin correlates with very few global macro phenomena. A consistent exception seems to be changes in the fiat money supply: stimulus campaigns are positively correlated with bitcoin bull markets.

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For Europe, Latin America, Africa, Asia and Oceania, we believe the legal reality will vary greatly and we’ll see a growing polarization emerge: some countries will embrace bitcoin (see our section about nation state adoption), whereas others will actively try to discourage citizens from using or holding it.

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And finally, a new favorite quote:

“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” – Robert Arnott

Michael Saylor’s 10 pieces of advice for young people

Thought this list was useful and helpful regardless of age; it reminds me also of Kevin Kelly, who says advice should really be called reminders :)

1. Focus your energy
2. Guard your time
3. Train your mind
4. Train your body
5. Think for yourself
6. Curate your friends
7. Curate your environment
8. Keep your promises
9. Stay cheerful and constructive
10. Upgrade the world

In tweet form:

Screenshot 2023-05-20 at 7.21.01 PM

He also did an in-depth podcast on this (I’ve only listened to part of it):

It takes just 10 generations to turn a wild animal into a pet

silver-fox

One of the many many 🤯 bits from James Scott’s Against the Grain which I’ve mentioned before:

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By selecting the least aggressive (most tame) from among 130 silver foxes and breeding them to one another repeatedly, the experimenters produced, in only ten generations, 18 percent of progeny that exhibited extremely tame behavior—whining, wagging their tails, and responding favorably to petting and handling as a domestic dog might. After twenty generations of such breeding, the percentage of extremely tame foxes nearly doubled to 35 percent.

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So in 10 generations – which is just 10 years in fox time because incredibly, it takes a fox just 10 months to reach breeding age – almost 1/5 of offspring become pet-like.

And then I think about human reproduction, and the power of culture and institutions to selectively breed us (I’m not saying such behavior is fully conscious or purposeful, but it certainly is interesting!)

Pixar’s 22 rules of storytelling

pixar-movies-collage

Thanks to my friend Jason’s tweet, I re-discovered this resource. Just wanted to highlight some of my favorites — and it’s always interesting how your favorites will change with each review or re-reading. Hope you find some favorites too!

Rule #3: Trying for theme is important. However you won’t see what the story is about until you’re at the end of the story. Got it? Now rewrite.

Rule #11: Putting it on paper lets you start fixing it. If it stays in your head, a perfect idea, you’ll never share it with anyone.

Rule #12: Discount the first idea that comes to mind. And the 2nd, and the 3rd and 4th and 5th. Get the obvious ones out of the way. Surprise yourself.

Rule #17: No work is ever wasted. If it doesn’t work, let go and move on. It’ll come back around and be useful later.

Rule #20: Exercise: Take the building blocks out of a movie you dislike. How’d you arrange them into what you do like?

Which type are you?

Found this interesting short story (almost a parable but not quite) in Haruki Murakami’s new essay collection.

I remember reading a book when I was a boy about two men who travel to learn what there is to know about Mount Fuji. Neither of them has ever seen Fuji before. The smarter of the two men sizes up the mountain from several vantage points at the foot of its slopes. Then he says, “So this is the famous Fuji-san. Now I see what makes it so special,” and heads back home, satisfied. His way is efficient. And fast. The less intelligent man can’t figure it out like that, so he stays behind to climb the mountain all the way to its summit. This takes a lot of time and effort. By the end he has used up all his strength and is completely pooped. “So that’s Mount Fuji, huh?” he thinks. Finally, he has understood it, or perhaps grasped its essence at a less conscious level.

It got me thinking — in most areas of my life I’m definitely the first guy — whatever is easiest, fastest, most efficient, most superficial. But there are some crucial and specific areas where I’m closer to the second guy. Areas like writing, and perhaps crypto, and maybe podcasts. And I think that’s worth paying attention to.

Perhaps for some people, it’s the reverse. Where they are inclined to do-to-understand, instead of think-to-understand. Something like this.