I agree:
I’m placing my bets that another hard money renaissance will occur in our lifetimes, as many have before, and that Bitcoin will be a key beneficiary. I don’t believe it will be the /only/ money, but that its role for the generations ahead will be an important one.
Source: https://alphabetasoup.ghost.io/a-penny-spent-a-penny-lent/
And Stable Diffusion’s take on “hard money renaissance, art by leonardo da vinci”:
Guest: David Senra, host of Founders podcast
Host: Patrick O’Shaughnessy
Lifelong love of reading, visiting bookstores
Family has a hard history – parents didn’t graduate high school, first male in family not to go to prison in many generations
Married for 15 years
“Great biography is like a movie for your mind”
Warren Buffett – “pick the right heroes”
Charlie Munger also read hundreds of biographies
Most of the heroes he studies are imperfect human beings
But if he had one as a blueprint, it would be Ed Thorp (math prof, blackjack)
James Dyson – 14 year struggle to build the Dyson vacuum, went through 5K prototypes to finally succeed
Sam Zemurray, Fish that ate the whale – banana company founder – poor teenage Russian immigrant in the US, succeeded through his incremental obsession; funded a coup to protect his business
Vanderbilt – at death controlled 1 in 20 dollars in the economy; tried to kill someone who wanted to seize a part of his business
Francis Coppola – dad was a failed musician; fanatical obsession to learn and make films
Sam Walton – long before he started Walmart, landowner screwed him over and copied his first retail business; but he didn’t quit, he went to more towns and replicated the success
Largest predictor of business success is the market you’re in, more than the idea – yet the great Founders all have to relentlessly execute for decades
All Founders had deep historical knowledge of their industry, influences
Steve Jobs – recruiting talent is most important job as a founder
-Steve said “I wanna make insanely great products” not “I wanna build a billion dollar company” – focused on the right things
-“Made and re-made Apple in his own image”
-At NEXT (after he left Apple), it’s like he was Bizarro Steve Jobs and did all the wrong things
Michael Jordan – “I believe in practice”, realized that he practices on different level than others
Richard Branson – business is a product or service that makes someone’s life better
Ed Thorp – every hour in fitness is one less in hospital
Larry Miller – owned Utah Jazz, wrote book on his death bed, regretted his overwork and how unhappy he was through it all
Masters of Doom – John Carmack: “Romero wants an empire, I just wanna make great games”
In N Out founder – only 17 stores when he died, but was obsessed with quality the whole time
“Who are your entrepreneurial heroes? Everyone copies someone”
Tony Xu – Doordash founder – “culture is 80-90% personality of the founder”
Walt Disney – both he and Ferrari’s first companies went bankrupt; most proud of Disneyland; worked til day he died
“Their mediocrity is my opportunity”
Warren Buffett said David Ogilvy is a genius – no business is boring, only boring advertising
David ends up reading each book 5 times through research, recording, editing, and promoting it – also uses Readwise to refresh highlights
“Find your obsession, and make your exit strategy death”
Most highlighted book of his is Ed Catmull’s biography (Pixar)
“Excellence is the capacity to take pain” – Four Seasons founder
“Podcasting is printing press for spoken word”
-Completely permissionless
-His fave podcaster is Dan Carlin (Hardcore History)
-Also likes Bill Burr’s Monday Morning podcast
-Podcast is like choosing a friend
—
Below is “podcaster reading famous biography books, pixar style, photorealistic” from Simple Diffusion:
Oldie but goodie — Andolfatto is SVP of the Fed Reserve Bank of Louis:
I think that Bitcoin could be the world’s next great safe asset. At least, it certainly seems to have all the properties that are desired in a safe asset. Importantly, it is a “simple” asset. It’s simple in the sense that it’s a pure fiat object–the monetary objects (called /bitcoin/) constitute no legal claim against anything of intrinsic value. Bitcoin is simply a record-keeping technology (and economists have known for a long time that money is memory). It pays no interest. Possession corresponds to ownership (unless counterparties are involved).
Source: https://andolfatto.blogspot.com/2016/03/is-bitcoin-safe-asset.html
And below is “bitcoin as a simple asset” according to Stable Diffusion:
These notes are a bit old (from April 2022). I thought I’d already published them, but couldn’t find it on my blog or twitter so…
Guest: Sam Kazemian
Host: Bankless
Sam got into crypto via GPU mining
Worked on wikipedia competitor
Started Frax Finance
Got in crypto 2013, UCLA student, mining dogecoin
One of first to signup for ETH newsletter in 2014 (Vitalik talking about counterparty and colored coins)
First “stablecoin whitepaper” was Robert Sam’s seignorage whitepaper
Two token system – stablecoin + share token / volatile token to represent seignorage / cashflow
Click to access A-Note-on-Cryptocurrency-Stabilisation-Seigniorage-Shares.pdf
There’s a WordPress of stablecoins now – cookie cutter playbook, infra is there
Will be Cambrian explosion for next 12 months
Stablecoins are one of 3 multi trillion dollar crypto narratives
1. Bitcoin
2. ETH
3. Stablecoins
Each are unique assets
Tells short story about central banking – from JP Koenig blog
https://jpkoning.blogspot.com/2018/03/more-fiatsplainin-lets-play-fiat-or-not.html
USDT
Start with each piece of paper has $1 USD behind them
Then limit or reduce redemption
Then say don’t have 1:1 redemption, but have these other assets
Frax created concept of fractional algorithmic stablecoin
Never broken peg (1cent plus or minus from $1)
Billions of dollars of onchain liquidity
Frax is partial claims on hard money
RSA: Type 1 Hard money > Type 2 Claims on hard money > Type 3 Fiat money
Frax launched with Frax and FXS
Last week launched price index stablecoin
Frax is $1 stablecoin
FXS is governance token (named after Robert Sams whitepaper)
Algorithmic = expand or contract based on minting or burning FXS
Some people would say 100% collateralized, just part of collateral is FXS (but kinda circular bc it’s kinda like being backed by itself)
Hard assets / reserve = DAI, USDC, CRV emissions, protocol liquidity
Frax is mintable on 12 chains, lots of L2s
versus UST (all algorithmic, aside from Luna tokens and recent BTC purchases)
UST moving more toward fractionalized with recent BTC and AVAX purchases
Only difference is collateral ratio
Maker DAO started with fundamentally sound reserves = $1 stablecoin backed by $2 worth of other assets
Over time, everyone’s learned it’s extremely difficult to issue a USD stablecoin without having lots of actual USD / hard assets
Even Terra works closely with Jump and other market makers
If you want to autonomously be a Central Bank (Terra, Maker, Frax are the big 3) – you need hard assets to do it
When redemption window is open (1/3 of one cent off) – can redeem, get a mixture of assets – get USDC and FXS minted at current collateral ratio
So even last redeemers will still get equal pro-rata shares of the different assets as everyone else – so no benefit to redeeming first
And as the peg is off by 1/3 of one cent+, the collateral ratio increases
Entirely onchain, extremely decentralized approach
No legal entity – there’s no off chain assets
Frax takes some of algo stablecoin scalability (Terra), but reduce risk of bank run / crash (Maker)
Lots of stablecoins will move toward Frax model – question is what collateral ratio?
Maker is 150% (?)
Frax is 85%
Terra is 10-20% BTC
People focus too much on collateral ratio and not enough on ability to keep the intended $1 peg
Terra really good at strategy, adoption, also a lot of market making activity from people with interest in Terra / Luna succeeding – eg, Jump Capital – other people with billions of dollars to ensure the $1 peg
No market maker is willing to do this without incentives
Thus all onchain stablecoins like Maker and Frax need USDC
Frax has 40s% USDC / Tether exposure, less than Maker at ~50-60%
Trying to wean off USDC / Tether
Mim – overcollateralized model – tried to work with them but had Sifu episode
Used for a lot of degen leverage
Great ex of overcollateralized – but still risky!
Risk is summation of all market activity
“Frax is as safe as DAI”
“UST is way more safe than people think” – lot of people have very strong interest in UST peg – difficult to quantify, but MUCH safer than the idea that “there’s nothing here” – if actually true they would’ve collapsed in those crazy downturns / dips
Big 3 – UST, Frax, Dai
What drives FXS price?
Can be staked as veFXS – Curve model – 1 week to 4 years – can’t be transferred – then have veFXS balance – get cash flow from profit of Frax market operations
APR is 4.7%, can vary from 3-20% depending on profitability and yield opportunities – entirely cashflow
Entirely self sufficient actual profit, not token emissions
Frax has $2.7B supply – ~$200M of annual revenue
What is FPI?
Second stablecoin in Frax ecosystem (after Frax itself)
First one pegged to CPI of federal gov’t
Custom Chainlink oracle – designed with Chainlink and Vault (Volt?) projects
Worked on it for one year
Grand vision – evolution of stablecoins will look like evolution of central banking – eventually will peg to our own definition of exchange rate, not some external exchange rate
That’s what FPI is – “final evolution of onchain stablecoins”
Eventually weight of basket of goods for CPI will be entirely onchain – not reliant on government or centralized data source
Today was highest CPI reading in 40 years – 8.5%
Can mint FPI with Frax
Eventually FPI can float against dollar
Curve wars / Curve4 pool
New Curve stablecoin liquidity pool
Removing liquidity from DAI (3 pool) and point towards 4 pool (UST, Frax, USDC, Tether)
Talked to Do for awhile – not a surprising move – one of smartest and most ambitious guys in space
Known Do since 2018, when he started Terra, he’s very good strategist
Currency success = how many people using it, how much economic activity it supports, and a mixture of uses is important
Curve is like WordPress of stablecoins or pegged assets (stables, ETH & stETH)
Nothing wrong with Maker / DAI’s strategy – if they wanted to do DAI 4-pool, Frax would work with them like all the other stables
They take a thorough, slow, methodical approach to governance
Maker isn’t as interested because they don’t see Curve at same importance as Frax or Terra
Frax and Terra are aggressive about growth – want your currency anywhere there’s economic activity
Curve is more than just a DEX, it’s an algorithmic savings account, get yield on it
Some people think it’s just a Ponzi game but they’re mistaken
Frax has largest CVX holdings, Terra also has a lot, but Maker doesn’t
4-pool will be massive when it gets going
Just launched on Arbitrum, Fantom and Polygon are already available
“Will be the savings account for very large part of crypto industry”
Stablecoin pegs are stronger together – focused on positive sum innovation
Frax has been spot on with thesis of fractional algorithmic stablecoin, and now FPI (first CPI-pegged stablecoin)
In 12-24 months, will be consolidation around 3-4 decentralized stablecoins
Are BTC / ETH better as inflation resistance or as “central bank reserves” in crypto
Do Kwan kickstarting BTC as gold narrative, Frax doing same for ETH
So inflation resistance crowd will be captured by stablecoins like FPI, and BTC / ETH will be perfect reserves
And this is a “fractional crypto stablecoin, anime style” according to Stable Diffusion:
Guest: Sam Kazemian (Frax founder, Everipedia founder)
Host: Jason Choi
Defi needs more zero-to-1 moments
Excited for FRAX’S FPI – stablecoin pegged to CPI instead of USD
Defi blue chips trending towards the “Trinity” of stablecoin, lending, and liquidity – clearly the future, strong network effects + consolidated value – it’s the original Defi stack
AAVE adding lending and stablecoin; CRV adding stablecoin; Frax has all 3; Binance does too
Frax is fractionally backed
-Didn’t believe in purely algorithmic stablecoins (like Luna)
-Claimed early that Basis and Terra don’t work
-They’re like banks with no reserves
-Frax is 93% backed by exogenous assets – protocol liquidity, stablecoins – closer to Dai than Luna
-worst case Frax will only de-peg to $0.93
-but 80+% of collateral is USDC (centralization risk)
Stablecoin trilemma – based on Vitalik’s blockchain scaling trilemma (throughput, scalability, decentralization)
1. Tight peg
2. Decentralized collateral
3. Capital efficiency
Fully decentralized ones – eg, RAI, LUSD – collectively don’t add up to much liquidity, hard to scale
“Bear market is bull market for stablecoins”
Expects Frax will approach 100% collateralized if the bear market lasts another year or so
Dai is $7B, Frax $1.5B stablecoin circulating supply
Would love for both to reach $1T supply
To get there, more economic activity needs to occur onchain – but whole industry mcap is only $1T right now
What’s he interested in angel investing?
-Really interested in L2 / scaling roadmap
-Hardware to accelerate ZKPs
-new innovative stability mechanisms for stablecoins
-new lending / liquidity methods
—
Here are older notes from Sam talking about Frax, Terra, Do Kwon, Curve, and more on Bankless