The crypto bull is back: What are the unexpected catalysts waiting for us?

Most people who follow crypto would probably agree that we are either entering or already in the early innings of the next crypto bull cycle. Just as prior cycles took prices to all time highs over the span of 1-2 years — though with plenty of volatility — I expect much the same behavior this cycle, too.

Like prior cycles, this one seems to sync with Bitcoin’s 4-year halving. Like prior cycles, it also comes after a prolonged and painful bear market full of implosions, bankruptcies, scammers, government regs, and plenty of Twitter fights.

If you’re on Twitter, the dominant explanation for why the worm has turned is the anticipated approval of America’s first Bitcoin spot ETF, specifically Blackrock’s application.

There are other catalysts too such as:

-the anticipated Bitcoin halving cutting new bitcoin issuance from 6.25 per block to 3.125 per block in April next year

-A pause and potential reversal of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle (and stealth QE or as Michael Howell puts it, “quantitative support” 🙄)

-The conclusion of SBF’s (first) criminal trial and the steady forgetting of the FTX debacle (and the Luna debacle and the Celsius debacle and on)

-High and sustained global inflation causing fiat currency holders around the world to look for alternative stores of value

-The crash of US Treasury prices and the prospect of “higher for longer” interest rates causing fixed income investors to seek alternatives

I consider the above as “immediate” catalysts in the sense that if any of them were to occur in a sustained and significant way, it would probably lead to a significant and broad pump in crypto prices. Some of the above are already “priced in” to varying degrees. But not completely, and not to the degree that I anticipate they will materialize in 2024 and 2025.

In addition to the imminent catalysts, I find it interesting to speculate about potential knock on effects, the “unexpected catalysts” per the title, the second order effects that follow on from the first wave.

Just as the rise of Uber (initial catalyst) led to the downstream effects of (a) the decline of the regulated yellow cab industry, (b) the crash in NYC taxi medallion prices, and (c) the rise of on-demand apps for everything from scooters to house cleaners.

These unexpected catalyst and downstream effects are far less likely to happen, but when they do, they can generate enormous volatility in outcomes because they are almost by definition SURPRISES and thus NOT PRICED IN.

I believe the immediate catalysts — and more that I missed — will by themselves propel Bitcoin past its former all time high ($69K USD). You can expect the rest of crypto to catch up as well (just not your shitcoin).

But it’s those unexpected catalysts / un-priced-in effects that could push cryptocurrencies to significant new highs in 2024 and 2025. Though I don’t put much stock in price predictions, my starting assumption for price peak in this fast approaching cycle is $150K Bitcoin and $10K Ethereum, with Ethereum flippening Bitcoin (as I wrote about before) briefly, and that itself also being a second order effect.

So below are some very speculative potentially surprising ideas that could catalyze the late and crazy parts of the bull market:

Microstrategy causes corporations and corporate titans to fomo in
As Microstrategy’s Bitcoin bags explode in value (even at $36K Bitcoin, MSTR is already $1B in profit), leading to record corporate profits, a soaring stock price, and new levels of media notoriety for Michael Saylor, other small and medium tier companies — particularly those in adjacent industries from energy to tech to finance — will adopt a crypto reserve strategy. You could see billionaire tech titans like Masayoshi Son fomo in. Bitcoin will benefit most. Ethereum may surprise too

El Salvador causes nation states to fomo in
The same effect could happen to El Salvador, which becomes celebrated as a new beacon of financial sovereignty and emerging market wealth. President Bukele is feted by innovative politicians (I hope this is not an oxymoron) and small sovereign states, particularly in the Global South, and a race begins for nation states and central banks to buy Bitcoin and other blue chip cryptos. Investing heavily in bitcoin mining is also an indirect approach (eg, Oman, UAE, Bhutan). It’s possible G7 / developed states could also FOMO in, but I think this more likely in the next cycle (circa 2027-2028)

Bitcoin ETF’s success leads to a laundry list of other token ETFs
The Bitcoin spot ETF, after a slow launch, will steadily become Wall Street’s new darling, causing financial advisors and institutions to fomo in, leading to a slew of applications for other crypto ETFs starting with Ethereum. Though most applications could be rejected or at least delayed, this solidifies crypto’s position within tradfi, and tradfi is coming with their big accounts and clever financialization.

Ethereum becomes known as the deflationary currency and the Internet bond
As crypto usage rises (always correlated with bull markets), Ethereum becomes significantly deflationary (it already is, just more so), and along with its anticipated spot ETF approval, this is the cycle where Ethereum will birth its new reputation as (1) the “Internet bond” (first bearer digital asset with meaningful yield) and (2) the first deflationary asset to go alongside Bitcoin’s positioning as the first fixed-supply asset

Bitcoin beating gold becomes the next Schelling point
As Bitcoin easily passes $100K, everyone will turn their attention to what’s next, and what’s next is beating gold. Depending on the estimate you use, that easily puts Bitcoin around $400-500K, which I don’t expect to happen in this cycle… but it could. And it’s what people will talk about in the late bull. People need rallying points and gold has always been a big bullseye

Ethereum will flippen Bitcoin — just briefly
Just as Bitcoin’s main competitor is gold, Ethereum’s main competitor is Bitcoin. I support both and believe a rising tide lifts all boats. In the last bull, Ethereum peaked around 50% of Bitcoin’s value (market cap), and I expect that 50% will be far surpassed this cycle. As this happens, everyone will begin talking about Ethereum “flippening” Bitcoin, and the possibility is not priced in. Though I expect any market cap flippening to be short lived this cycle, but possibly a permanent fixture by the next. I wrote more about that prospect here.

Memecoin mania will return with a vengeance, and MSM will go crazy
I expect memecoin mania to return, despite less global liquidity and a high rates environment. And it will be larger and more degenerate, and no one will expect it. The first $100B memecoin. Maybe even a memecoin billionaire. The mainstream media’s shock and disgust will ironically pour fuel on flame. Elon’s never one to miss a press party, and he will finally launch his own token, somehow justifying the move by claiming synergy with Twitter/X and Grok AI.

That’s it for now. It’s a very incomplete list, but if even a couple of the above surprises were to happen, we could be in for a wild(er) ride. I’ll add more as I think of them or you can yell at me on Twitter.

You could argue there will be plenty of negative surprises and unforeseen headwinds, too, but that’s the thing about bull markets — no one really cares, and everyone just wants to greed while greeding is good. The bad news and the corruption and the new wave of scams will accumulate and build and then push us into the next bear in 2025-2026 :)

Michael Saylor is a bull bull bull – a bunch of notes from his podcast appearances

Here are some news stories if you’re not familiar with Saylor’s background and recent actions:

He’s even re-directed one of his domains, hope.com, to Microstrategy’s list of curated resources to learn more about bitcoin.

NOTES below.

Michael Saylor on the Bitcoin Audible podcast

  • Bitcoin is first closed energy system, monetary energy network
  • Try to send power from LA to Tokyo, you lose 20-40% in shipping costs or 2% per month if stored in a battery
  • Shipping 3K pounds of gold from NY to Tokyo would cost $250K and take a week; to send $100M in bitcoin costs $5 and one hour
  • Electricity was a tech platform
  • Penicillin probably greatest technology for mankind, extended lifespans 20 years, but gets little credit and attention
  • Money supply inflating 7% a year
  • Gold losing guaranteed 2% per year or more due to supply expansion
  • “There’s gonna be fracking equivalent for gold”
  • Inflation is a vector but CPI is an arbitrary scalar that doesn’t reflect the assets you really want (eg, a nice house, a university education)
  • Negative real yield on cash is 20% range this year
  • Long bond right now is saying, give us all your money and we’ll give you 2% back per year and at the end, return just 30-40% of your principle
  • Choices came down to, is it gold silver or bitcoin?
  • Commercial real estate, equities are too expensive
  • Focused on Bitcoin’s market dominance in PoW coins that are doing decentralized SoV
  • Believes a dominant network that dematerializes something, when it gets valued at $100B has “won”, and will go to $1T, $2T, like Apple, Amazon. In this sense Bitcoin already won
  • “There isn’t any winning investment strategy other than technology!”
  • When a company stops growing, that means their tech isn’t cutting edge anymore
  • Rockefeller did everything Bezos did, 100 years earlier, Bezos basically copied Rockefeller’s playbook
  • Stock-2-flow for bitcoin is actually infinite if you look out 100 years
  • Other bitcoin benefits: Liquidate anytime, audit anytime, ship anywhere anytime, now tell me how gold is gonna do that?
  • Looks for “paradigm shifts driven by elemental inventions”
  • When we used wood, we could build 2 stories; with masonry, that became 5 stories; but steel let us build 100 story buildings
  • “Steel is elemental to civil engineering. Take it away, all of modern architecture collapses”
  • “Without aluminum, there’s no aviation industry”
  • Rockefeller drove down energy prices by 1000x
  • Crypto gold is bedrock of modern digital economy
  • If you build your (corporate) treasury with gold, it’s like taking a voyage in a wood ship, bitcoin is a steel haul freighter

Michael Saylor on the Saifedean podcast

  • “A bank is a fiat miner” – Saifedean
  • Saylor says main reason to position bitcoin as SoV / asset like an Apple or Google stock or gold is because it won’t threaten governments, but if you market as privacy and better currency then you’re inviting regulation or banning
  • “Destiny of money is to be encrypted” – Saylor, fiat is easier to print and steal

Saylor on Pomp’s podcast

  • Microstrategy stock went from $330 to 42c after dotcom bubble
  • Forgot he even tweeted about bitcoin dying until the recent purchase
  • Would never buy 30yr bond at 2%
  • Maybe the longest tenured public tech co CEO
  • risk free rate used to be 5%!
  • asset inflation ~7% but now 25-30%
  • Microstrategy biz model got better thru covid, reduced cost structure (no travel, no conferences) and customers stuck around (govts, big biz)
  • Limit to how much stock buyback you can do without moving price, would take Microstrategy 4 years
  • Hated remote work, but adjusted now
  • Went thru all asset options for the $500M cash on their balance sheet:
  • Commercial RE isn’t fairly priced right now, impaired asset
  • FANG tech stocks overpriced now
  • Considered precious metals but bitcoin better
  • Wants something that can be cut in half but also go up 10x
  • All winning cos were tech cos in their time from Nestle to Boeing
  • Looked at defi and other coins but thinks bitcoin’s focus on PoW and SoV and all this energy invested means it’s got best chance
  • “It’s already won”; Believes $100B is this threshold after which you win
  • Vetted bitcoin institutional exchanges, custodians, got to know teams well, then did 1000s or more transactions every day over period of time
  • Confident he didn’t materially move the market, “let the market come to you”
  • “Every CEO had a lot of assumptions shaken this year” from TikTok to remote work to macroeconomy
  • Putting bitcoin in corporate treasury “It’s like the 4 minute mile”. Didn’t think it could be done, now someone has done it and next year dozens will do it
  • To copy his move, a nimble public co takes 6 mos to do this, a rational big public co takes 9-12 mos, expects more to follow late this year and into next
  • It’s not 10x better than gold, 100-1000x better
  • 3500 publicly traded cos, $5T in their treasuries
  • Asset inflation went from 6-7% to 25-30% (that’s where he gets the 2-3% loss each month for holding cash), love his metaphor of melting ice cube
  • “There’s a negative real yield on anything else I can buy”
  • $200T or more of negative real yield on treasuries, precious metals, etc, bitcoin’s upside is not just gold mcap
  • Wonders why Dorsey with $10B between Square and Twitter doesn’t buy $500M?
  • Pomp believes Dorsey has more pressing problems eg, dealing with activist investors
  • Amazed at the community ethos of bitcoin

Some excerpts from his book, The Mobile Wave [Amazon]

  • Whenever teenage girls and corporate CEOs covet the same new technology, something extraordinary is happening.
    -And the adult population will be impacted just as much, and perhaps more, as many physical objects we find in our pockets and purses today—like keys, wallets, credit cards, calendars, cameras, recorders, maps, and mirrors—become software, too,
  • “You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.” This quote is loosely attributed to Trotsky and its idea applies to our situation today. Your business might not be interested in software, but software is interested in your business.
  • The Agricultural Revolution took thousands of years to run its course. The Industrial Revolution required a few centuries. The Information Revolution, propelled by mobile technology will likely reshape our world on the order of decades.

Saylor’s 3 hour podcast with Peter McCormack is also great, but I didn’t take notes for it.

Oh…he also did a good long podcast on domain names with DomainSherpa:

  • Majored in aeronautics/astronautics, history of science
  • Domains: Shorter is better, easier to spell, English
  • Parallels to vanity phone numbers and license plates which are still an active market
  • By 1995 it was clear to him how valuable domains would be, bot a bunch like Angel.com and Alarm.com etc
  • Spent $100-200K for voice.com (me: later sold to BlockOne for $30M)
  • Started businesses with Alarm.com (home automation) and Strategy.com (personalized intelligence)
  • Missing piece is creative thing, fantastical thinking, references fantasy fiction a lot
  • English has most words in world (is this true?)
  • Enormous value to learning English, 2-3x multiplier or more in earnings
  • Lives in Miami Beach
  • In domain industry an English domain is worth 100x more than comparable in Spanish
  • Domain names = Commercial real estate
  • The commercial RE value will move to domains as world dematerializes
  • Virtual wave comes after mobile wave
  • People have rediscovered criticality of owning own domain
  • Thinks voice.com is actually worth $1B
  • Compares to art, rather own and lease or license it instead of selling the asset outright (similar to real estate, bitcoin)
  • “Domains are new digital asset class”
  • Podcast host: believes there are ~50K domain names with truly premium value (host owns pristine.com)

Dropping this here…because, well…*shrugs*. Never a dull moment in 2020: