Tag: tuur demeester

Tuur Demeester’s great report on bitcoin: “In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable”

Tuur’s last 2 (or 3?) reports have also come during bear markets, and he’s called his shots almost to perfection.

Original report: https://unchained.com/how-to-position-bitcoin-boom

I did a 7-minute-ish podcast deep dive: https://twodegens.buzzsprout.com/2073784/12901355-5-minute-crypto-deep-dive-on-tuur-demeester-s-bitcoin-report-adamant-unchained

And here were some of my favorite excerpts (all copied verbatim):

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During this accumulation phase, we expect for bitcoin to trade in a range of $22,000 to $42,000, until a new multi-year bull market pushes it well north of $120,000.

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Today is no different—we see extraordinarily strong fundamentals, robust and sustained technological progress, and an unparalleled level of conviction among long-time bitcoin investors, all ready to fuel a global buying spree and sustained new adoption.

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Investing in bitcoin, we believe, is like having the ability to buy shares of a general “Internet ETF” back in the early 1990s, or like being able to buy undeveloped land on Manhattan Island at the start of the Industrial Revolution—it’s the opportunity of a lifetime.

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On a multi-year timeframe, bitcoin correlates with very few global macro phenomena. A consistent exception seems to be changes in the fiat money supply: stimulus campaigns are positively correlated with bitcoin bull markets.

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For Europe, Latin America, Africa, Asia and Oceania, we believe the legal reality will vary greatly and we’ll see a growing polarization emerge: some countries will embrace bitcoin (see our section about nation state adoption), whereas others will actively try to discourage citizens from using or holding it.

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And finally, a new favorite quote:

“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” – Robert Arnott

“It poisoned the German people by spreading among all classes the spirit of speculation”

Thanks to @tuurdemeester, a quote from an analysis of the Weimar inflationary depression:

The inflation retarded the crisis for some time, but this broke out later, throwing millions out of employment. At first inflation stimulated production because of the divergence between the internal and external values of the mark, but later it exercised an increasingly disadvantageous influence, disorganizing and limiting production. It annihilated thrift; it made reform of the national budget impossible for years; it obstructed the solution of the Reparations question; it destroyed incalculable moral and intellectual values. It provoked a serious revolution in social classes, a few people accumulating wealth and forming a class of usurpers of national poverty, whilst millions of individuals were thrown into poverty. It was a distressing preoccupation and constant torment of innumerable families; it poisoned the German people by spreading among all classes the spirit of speculation and by diverting them from proper and regular work, and it was the cause of incessant political and moral disturbance. It is indeed easy enough to understand why the record of the sad years 1919-23 always weighs like a nightmare on the German people.