Crony beliefs: “Beliefs that have been hired…for social and political kickbacks”

Loved this Kevin Simler essay on the concept of crony beliefs. And if you like this kind of writing, I also recommend his book Elephant in the Brain (I shared some favorite highlights here).

A few key paragraphs (shared verbatim):

I contend that the best way to understand all the crazy beliefs out there — aliens, conspiracies, and all the rest — is to analyze them as crony beliefs. Beliefs that have been “hired” not for the legitimate purpose of accurately modeling the world, but rather for social and political kickbacks.

And so we can roughly (with caveats we’ll discuss in a moment) divide our beliefs into merit beliefs and crony beliefs. Both contribute to our bottom line — survival and reproduction — but they do so in different ways: merit beliefs by helping us navigate the world, crony beliefs by helping us look good.

At work, we’re rewarded for believing good things about the company. At church, we earn trust in exchange for faith, while facing severe sanctions for heresy. In politics, our allies support us when we toe the party line, and withdraw support when we refuse.

Going further, crony beliefs actually need to be protected from criticism. It’s not that they’re necessarily false, just that they’re more likely to be false — but either way, they’re unlikely to withstand serious criticism. Thus we should expect our brains to take an overall protective or defensive stance toward our crony beliefs.

If you like anime, would highly recommend Summertime Rendering

I’m 90% through — no meaningful spoilers below — just highly highly recommended, it’s made me feel some strong emotional things

Stream of thoughts…

The main story is a murder mystery with plenty of action, comedy, fantasy thrown in, and a unique structural device that is the best application I’ve seen since Edge of Tomorrow

Though it was somewhere between episode 5-10 when the story finally “hooked” me, the payoff is really worth it, primarily emotional investment in the characters, all because of how patiently the story is told

The characters are very very well developed — full back stories, interesting and unpredictable arcs, complex relationships

There is a fair amount of fanservice which I can only assume is a “Japanese” thing and perhaps a wish of the author / creator — and now I’m wondering what is the female version of fanservice but as I type this, I already kinda know, it’s the extremely beautiful man who is also an impossible gentleman

I’m convinced childhood flashbacks are a way to “hack” the audience’s emotional involvement — we can’t help but feel both nostalgic of our own memories, and people just care MORE about kids

The art is just GORGE — diverse, detailed, hyper realistic with touches of fantasy, really world building — sometimes the art will suddenly switch to a “horror” or “comedic” style and it’s like a sneak attack you don’t see coming

Data aging or how technology amplifies our lived experience

Fascinating concept from VGR: https://studio.ribbonfarm.com/p/superhistory-not-superintelligence

To quote:

Those of us who have been using Google search for 22 years are /already/ like 100 years older than our biological age. Every year lived with Google at your fingertips is like 5 lived within the limits of paper books. In many ways, I feel older than my father, who is 83. I know the world in much richer, machine-augmented ways than he does, even though I don’t yet have a prosthetic device attached to my skull. I am not smarter than him. I’ve just data-aged more than him.

And:

But when Magnus Carlsen defeated Vishwanathan Anand in 2013, something weird and new was on display. I’m not a chess player, but from the commentary I read, it seems like not only was Carlsen more of a raw talent than Anand (same as Kasparov vs. Karpov) but he was also “older” in a weird way, despite being nominally 21 years younger. Carlsen is young enough to have been effectively “raised by AIs” — the most sophisticated chess AIs available on personal computers when he was growing up in the aughts. His playing style was described as kinda machine-inspired, pushing hard all the way through the end, exploring unlikely and unconventional lines of play where human tradition would suggest conceding.

22 random learnings from 2022

1
As you become an adult, you realize that things around you weren’t just always there; people made them happen. But only recently have I started to internalize how much tenacity *everything* requires. That hotel, that park, that railway. The world is a museum of passion projects.
https://twitter.com/collision/status/1529452415346302976

2
…even up against powerful prescription medications like Adderall and Modafinil: sleep and all sport categories are in the top-10 for every metric, weightlifting and low-intensity exercise are ranked 1st and 2nd for “probability of having a positive effect”, and weightlifting is ranked 3rd for “probability of changing your life
https://troof.blog/posts/nootropics/

3
And so we began. At the time it felt like a fun project, but not any sort of life-changing decision. The big moments rarely do, I think, and the danger of retroactive mythologizing is that it makes people want to hold out for something dramatic, rather than throwing themselves into every opportunity.
from Sid Meier’s memoir

4
Today the CO2 exhalation of all machines greatly exceeds the exhalation of all animals and even approaches the volume generated by geological forces.
from Kevin Kelly’s What Technology Wants (I think)

5
When people look at Quentin Tarantino, they see a mad creative with a singular talent for making original movies. But Tarantino’s originality begins with imitation. He’s famous for replicating and building upon scenes from other movies, and he once said: “I steal from every single movie ever made.”
https://perell.com/essay/imitate-then-innovate/

6
This realignment would not be traditional right vs left, but rather land vs cloud, state vs network, centralized vs decentralized, new money vs old money, internationalist/capitalist vs nationalist/socialist, MMT vs BTC, and (perhaps most symbolically) Hamilton vs Satoshi
https://nakamoto.com/bitcoin-becomes-the-flag-of-technology/

7
Lessin’s five steps:
1. The Pre-Internet ‘People Magazine’ Era
2. Content from ‘your friends’ kills People Magazine
3. Kardashians/Professional ‘friends’ kill real friends
4. Algorithmic everyone kills Kardashians
5. Next is pure-AI content which beats ‘algorithmic everyone’
https://stratechery.com/2022/instagram-tiktok-and-the-three-trends/

8
The UN estimates that 5 African countries will be amongst the 10 most populated in the world by 2100:
-Nigeria
-the Democratic Republic of Congo
-Ethiopia
-Tanzania
-Egypt
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/10/for-world-population-day-a-look-at-the-countries-with-the-biggest-projected-gains-and-losses-by-2100/

9
Yes, prices would fall and keep falling as technology and a free market did away with a false construct of needing more growth to pay for prices that were only manipulated higher through money printing in the first place. With prices falling to their natural level, and on a path to free, the entire infrastructure required to support price inflation, which was only caused by ignoring the free market, will fall away.
View at Medium.com

10
AIs can be used to generate “deep fakes” while cryptographic techniques can be used to reliably authenticate things against such fakery. Flipping it around, crypto is a target-rich environment for scammers and hackers, and machine learning can be used to audit crypto code for vulnerabilities. I am convinced there is something deeper going on here. This reeks of real yin-yangery that extends to the roots of computing somehow
https://studio.ribbonfarm.com/p/the-dawn-of-mediocre-computing

11
Bitcoin is here to stay because it is cheap and easy to bring into existence. It is a networked phenomenon that emerges out of equal peers, not unlike electricity and the internet before it. The fear of Bitcoin ceasing to exist arises out of a deep misunderstanding of the nature of these phenomena. It is akin to asking: “What if electricity goes away?”
https://dergigi.com/2022/10/02/bitcoin-is-digital-scarcity/

12
most are just technical ways to reframe the problem: play it faster, play it slower, change the order, change the instruments, add repetition, remove repetition.…They never seem to discuss or argue over these changes, they just play it to see if it works.
https://medium.com/fluxx-studio-notes/10-lessons-in-productivity-and-brainstorming-from-the-beatles-ea14385e27a4

13
In 2020, EVs made up 5.6% of all new car sales in China. Last year, the proportion was over 13%. For 2022, the data shows that EVs will comprise roughly a quarter of all cars sold. This is a case study on how quickly a market can turn

14
In practice, the freakishly specific nature of the stuff ambitious kids have to do in high school is directly proportionate to the hackability of college admissions. The classes you don’t care about that are mostly memorization, the random “extracurricular activities” you have to participate in to show you’re “well-rounded,” the standardized tests as artificial as chess, the “essay” you have to write that’s presumably meant to hit some very specific target, but you’re not told what
http://www.paulgraham.com/lesson.html

15
…opportunity and optionality are often inversely correlated. The challenge is that the greatest rewards generally go to people who are tied down in certain ways. People can only become world-class at things they commit to. Ultimately, the more hesitant people are about making commitments, the higher the rewards are for people who do.
https://perell.com/essay/hugging-the-x-axis/

16
Tezuka himself was a strong admirer of Disney animation, as were many of Japan’s pioneer animators. Even today Japanese animators are strongly aware of American animation. But, virtually from the start, postwar Japanese animation has tended to go in a very different direction, not only in terms of its adult orientation and more complex story lines but also in its overall structure. It is important to emphasize the link between television and Japanese animation in terms of anime’s narrative structure and overall style…This serial quality was also reinforced by animation’s connection with the ubiquitous manga, which emphasized long-running episodic plots as well.

17
One of the best ways of accumulating emotion is to go as rapidly as possible from one take to the next. The actor begins the second take on the emotional level he reached at the end of the first take. Sometimes I don’t even cut the camera. I’ll say quietly, “Don’t cut the camera—everybody back to their opening positions and we’re going again. OK from the top: Action!”
http://www.sheilaomalley.com/?p=36326

18
I spent a morning on a Naha beach working out with Fumiyasu Yamakawa, a one-time banker. Every day at 4:30 a.m., he cycled to the beach, swam a half hour, ran a half hour, did yoga, and then met with a group of other Okinawan seniors who stood in a circle and laughed. “Why is that?” I asked. “It’s vitamin S,” he said. “You smile in the morning and it fortifies you all day long.”
From the book Blue Zones

19
The conservative who resists change is as valuable as the radical who proposes it — perhaps as much more valuable as roots are more vital than grafts. It is good that new ideas should be heard, for the sake of the few that can be used; but it is also good that new ideas should be compelled to go through the mill of objection and opposition; this is the trial heat which innovation must survive before being allowed to enter the human race
From the book Lessons of History

20
Lorecraft is clearly a strikingly millennial school of management thinking. All the thinkers who belong in this tradition are, as far as I can tell, between about 28-35 or so. They are firmly middle-of-the-pack millennials. Founders of startups who seem to practice a sort of management by lorecraft, such as Conor White-Sullivan of Roam Research, are also in this cohort.
https://studio.ribbonfarm.com/p/lands-of-lorecraft

21
That carbon dioxide in every exhale has weight, and we exhale more weight than we inhale. And the way the body loses weight isn’t through profusely sweating or “burning it off.” We lose weight through exhaled breath. For every ten pounds of fat lost in our bodies, eight and a half pounds of it comes out through the lungs; most of it is carbon dioxide mixed with a bit of water vapor. The rest is sweated or urinated out. This is a fact that most doctors, nutritionists, and other medical professionals have historically gotten wrong. The lungs are the weight-regulating system of the body.
From the book Breath (more highlights here)

22
Van Gogh was a prolific painter. For a while, he painted a painting every single day. He still only produced 900.
Gauguin: 516. Cezanne: 1300. Picasso: 1885
https://twitter.com/swombat/status/1488306608908259331

Recent good reads – web3, Elon, Stranger Things, fake Russian history, and CS Lewis

https://tcg.mirror.xyz/CCtokn_XR9yqGhL3OIKM4u8IxaVO0V0fmRxH-G5yWs8

We hear a lot of conversation around “hooks” for crypto-native messaging, like permissionless social graphs, verification, and token-gating, but these are features of web3 messaging, not the core use of it. None of these features have made on-chain messaging competitive with Telegram or Signal, because convenience (almost) always wins over quality. The reason these messaging protocols will be more convenient is they will unlock a whole new recipient of the message: the protocol itself. We haven’t gotten there yet because currently, messaging is regarded as an end, but web3-native messaging is a means, not an end. It’s a byproduct of completing actions.

Interacting with the protocol is a fascinating idea, although I suppose that’s what we do when we search google, or call an uber…and now there’s “interacting with an algorithm” too when we use ChatGPT or Stable Diffusion…

https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/12/12/1064751/the-viral-ai-avatar-app-lensa-undressed-me-without-my-consent/

“Women are associated with sexual content, whereas men are associated with professional, career-related content in any important domain such as medicine, science, business, and so on,” Caliskan says.

I dunno, I kinda liked my new six pack

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-14/elon-musk-twitter-ownership-full-of-firings-ad-cuts-chaos

His journey from hero of the save-the-planet wing of the Democratic Party to right-wing flag-bearer has been years in the making. It was seemingly provoked by a series of real or perceived attacks from his left flank—from unions such as the United Auto Workers, which hopes to organize Tesla workers; Covid-wary lawmakers in California who shut down Tesla’s factories during the early days of the pandemic; and labor-friendly leaders like President Joe Biden, who declines to mention Tesla in speeches about electric cars and talked about extending EV credits for only unionized automakers. When Musk feels ambushed, he lashes out.

Shakespearean psychodrama? Does the msm have a hard on for Mr. Musk or what

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/most-amazing-discoveries-2022

For the first time, biologists have observed a native species, a bobcat, raiding a python nest and eating its eggs. Later, when the bobcat returned to find the snake guarding its nest, the cat took a swipe at the reptile. “When you get interactions like this and see the native wildlife fighting back, it’s like a ray of sunshine for us,” says Ian Bartoszek, an ecologist with the Conservancy of Southwest Florida. “In 10 years of tracking snakes, I can count on one hand the number of observations” of native animals standing up to the reptiles.

Demonstrating per usual that the “real” world is an incredible place full of potential wonder and we haven’t yet understood 1% of 1% of it

https://theupheaval.substack.com/p/a-prophecy-of-evil-tolkien-lewis

The process which, if not checked, will abolish Man goes on apace among Communists and Democrats no less than among Fascists. The methods may (at first) differ in brutality. But many a mild-eyed scientists in pince-nez, many a popular dramatist, many an amateur philosopher in our midst, means in the long run just the same as the Nazi rulers of Germany. Traditional values are to be ‘debunked’ and mankind to be cut into some fresh shape at will (which must, by hypothesis, be an arbitrary will) of some few lucky people…

I had to read this twice to understand its gist, which is something like, when we stopped worshipping something greater than ourselves (be it values or a deity), that left a power vacuum, and a small set of “experts” stepped in to tell us what to worship instead. And in writing that preceding sentence, I realize I still don’t really get it, and probably need to read it again

https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1010653/she-spent-a-decade-writing-fake-russian-history.-wikipedia-just-noticed.-

Yifan went down the rabbit hole on the Kashin mine and the Tver-Moscow War, learning about battles, the personalities of aristocrats and engineers, and more history surrounding the forgotten mine. There were hundreds of related articles describing this obscure period of Slavic history in the dull, sometimes suggestive, tone of the online encyclopedia. It was only when he tried to go deeper that something started to seem off. […] Eventually, he realized that there was no such thing as the great silver mine of Kashin (which is an entirely real town in Tver Oblast, Russia). Yifan had uncovered one of the largest hoaxes in Wikipedia’s history.

Yes I am chaotic neutral, and yes I mostly find this entertaining and have more than a modicum of admiration for this high-school educated lady to weave such a George RR Martin-esque alternative history. What we humans are able to create when we truly enjoy the creating…

https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/stranger-things-season-4-captions

Jeff T.: People really focused on “eldritch thrumming.” Eldritch is that sort of arcane, unknowable, vaguely threatening, otherworldly presence. I am going to reveal the depths of how nerdy I am — I apologize in advance — but it’s also the signature spell for a warlock in Dungeons & Dragons. It’s called eldritch blast. The lore of a warlock in Dungeons & Dragons is that they make the deal with an otherworldly power, whether it’s a demon or a powerful fairy lord. So I was like, “Oh, this is the perfect term for that sense of otherworldly power intruding into our world.”