“AI has a far greater likelihood of being dangerous in a government’s control”

Complex adaptive systems have like 20 different inputs (that you know of) and 4 different Chesterton’s Fences in them that will produce about 14 different 2nd-order effects, 21 different 3rd-order effects, and 11 different 4th-order effects you didn’t even know could happen.

Models for CAS that I disrespect: the economy, the climate, and any ecosystem with a massive amount of independent and dependent inputs and outputs. Before 2020 I wouldn’t have bucketed epidemiology in here, but it’s a worthy new addition to the “you really don’t know what you’re talking about, do you?” team.

And:

AI has a far greater likelihood of being dangerous in a government’s control than it does in the hands of genuinely brilliant engineers trying to create a transcendent technology for humanity. e/acc.

Thought provoking.

The easiest way(s) to make money…

Screenshot 2023-09-12 at 9.17.44 AM

Thought this was brilliant when a friend shared it. It’s all in Chinese so I’ll share my translation and then the original below:

Essentially the video asks, “what’s the easiest way to make money (from different kinds of people)?”

For guys, it’s anything related to sex and lust

For girls, it’s anything related to beauty and looks

For kids, it’s anything related to education

For the elderly, it’s anything related to health

For the poor, it’s anything related to getting rich (quick)

For the rich, it’s anything related to living longer / avoiding death

For the lazy, it’s anything related to sloth and idleness

For pet owners, it’s anything related to spoiling their pets

The original:

什么钱最好赚
男人-好色的钱
女人-爱美的钱
小孩-教育的钱
老人-健康的钱
穷人-暴富的钱
富人-怕死的钱
懒人-惰性的钱
主人-护宠的钱

Is money always remade by powerful new technologies?

roblox-robux

In Lyn Alden’s fantastic new book Broken Money, she talks about the natural arc of money towards increasing “hardness”. Any time there’s a new form of money — say, like rare pearls — the ingenuity and incentive of humanity is to find a way to “break” that money by, for instance, developing new ways to harvest and grow the oysters, or manufacture fake replicas, or travel far distances to collect more for less effort. In her (and others’) estimation, this is perhaps the primary reason gold has remained the hardest money for thousands of years. It still hasn’t been broken — but that could change in the future if, for example, we developed asteroid mining or found massive new gold mines.

Anyway, it got me thinking that perhaps new technology is what really drives the development of new money. Gold is an outlier, and we just haven’t yet developed the technology to enable cost-effective gold production or scalable asteroid mining.

The question I’m asking myself is something like — do powerful new technologies almost inevitably lead to the creation of new monies? I use the word “technology” in the broad sense, to quote one of my favorite simple definitions, “technology is anything that breaks a constraint”.

A brief and incomplete history of money follows:

Nature’s commodities eg, shells, teeth, shiny rocks – these required the (then novel) technologies of finding, harvesting, cleaning, storing

Metal coinage – the technologies of mining, smelting, minting, verification

Paper money – the technologies of paper making, writing, printing press (printing @ scale), counterfeit methods

Fiat money – the technologies of nation states (that could organize, distribute, and track it at great scale), distribution networks, telecommunications networks

Bitcoin / Ethereum – the technologies of the internet, cryptography, encryption, digital mining, distributed systems

All of these new monies were the products of new technologies, which both enabled their creation, while also rendering older forms of money either “broken” or inferior.

**On a somewhat related note, think about in-game currencies like Robux in Roblox. The game of Roblox is not a new general purpose technology, but rather an application of many technologies, yet it is cutting edge, and though Roblox the game doesn’t *require* Robux the money to function, it feels like a natural moving forward, in much the same way that humans evolved to prefer burgers and bagels though we could technically eat nuts and plants

Alright I’ve rambled enough. Just wanted to get some thoughts down on blog.

I ask the question because for me, the above conclusion implies that as powerful new technologies are developed, they may inevitably lead to the development of new kinds of money. On the horizon I see technologies like AI, VR / metaverse, bioengineering, and many others (known and unknown). And aliens, of course. Hopefully wise and peaceful ones.

🤔🤔🤔

“I probably shouldn’t care what other people think either, because their brain is probably just as fucked up as mine…”

From Bryan Johnson:

When I was depressed, I learned this lesson — to observe my thoughts — not BE my thoughts. And when I could observe my mind in action, and it’d be like “Hey Bryan, life is not worth living, everything’s worthless, everything sucks, you should probably kill yourself.”Like ohh, I’m not those things, that’s just my brain throwing trash, being a troll. That was like the most liberating experience of my entire life and then I was like, oh you know what, my brain is probably very similar to other peoples’ brains, I probably shouldn’t care what other people think either, because their brain is probably just as fucked up as mine…

Podcast:

Why 21 million bitcoins? “I ended up picking something in the middle”

Another fascinating glimpse into Satoshi’s thought process:

My choice for the number of coins and distribution schedule was an educated guess. It was a difficult choice, because once the network is going it’s locked in and we’re stuck with it. I wanted to pick something that would make prices similar to existing currencies, but without knowing the future, that’s very hard. I ended up picking something in the middle. If Bitcoin remains a small niche, it’ll be worth less per unit than existing currencies. If you imagine it being used for some fraction of world commerce, then there’s only going to be 21 million coins for the whole world, so it would be worth much more per unit.