Discussion based on this article: https://vitalik.ca/general/2022/12/05/excited.html
2022 accomplishments:
PoW>PoS reduced energy consumption by 99%
faster, more consistent block confirmation times – every 12secs
ZkEvms – multiple implementations with mainnet launch in 2023
Sign-in with Ethereum adoption (Farcaster, Lens)
Russia invasion of Ukraine – crypto proven to be useful
Continuing adoption in LatAm (eg, Argentina)
Crypto as international payment system for philanthropy
Post-peak price is often when major innovations launch (eg, Ethereum itself, Uniswap, PoS transition)
MtGox was, in a way, FTX of first cycle – but Mark Karpeles has proven himself a responsible actor in aftermath unlike Su Zhu and Kyle
But back then, MtGox implosion felt like existential crisis for bitcoin, for legitimacy
2023 will be year of rollups, Ethereum in its “scalable era”
Crypto no longer in 0.1—>10% stage
Now it’s about 10%—>70%, requires new strategies – eg, can’t keep losing $5B in hacks
Esperanto is failure case
A constructed language in 19th c – easier to learn because simpler spelling, more regular grammar
Hope for path to world peace, everyone can speak same language
Didn’t succeed – just enthusiasts, niche community
Beautiful technical properties – but adoption went nowhere
Linux is middle case – kind of succeeded, kind of hasn’t
Linux desktop is mostly a failure – very usable but low adoption
But lots of backend adoption – eg, Android and many servers run on Linux
Internet is big success case
Will Ethereum / crypto end up as Esperanto, Linux, or the Internet?
Probably not Esperanto but possible that it’s between Linux<->Internet
Possible that adoption bifurcates between developing and developed countries
If good people are passive, the things that win will be drama queens of the world – we need to drown out the drama queens
Vitalik intentionally using the word “crypto” less and “Ethereum” more
Crypto is ungovernable commons with no barriers to entry – but just because you’re “crypto” doesn’t mean Ethereum is your partner or ally
IOTA, XRP – still completely centralized, but they’re still on Coinmarketcap
XRP wrote documents to US government accusing BTC and ETH of being China controlled
Cosmos ecosystem – deeply respect it
One of few genuinely trying something different, modularity, different design space, have a technical vision, have not been pump-and-dumpy
DH: even though Terra / Luna was built on Cosmos, no one blames Cosmos for its failure
Others Vitalik respects: Zcash, Bitcoin (decentralization ethos)
2022 lessons learned:
-crypto at its most honorable when it takes core principles seriously (decentralization, self custody, transparency)
-some apps that grew quickly tried too hard to integrate w/ mainstream, and compromised their values
-what’s succeeded: Uniswap (DEX); Rai (stablecoin); ENS
-privacy tech hit a speed bump
5 use cases that excite Vitalik:
1 – Money – charitable donations; investing in startups; crypto as frictionless international money
Even if CBDC is adopted, likely hard to use / transmit across borders
In developing world, crypto is easiest way to send money home to families, to store value
Developed world activism or industries at risk of de-platforming (eg, adult content)
Make a wallet that 1B people use
2 – Defi – most important are the most simple use cases eg, stablecoins, DEX, prediction markets (stuff that’s been around for longer)
Newer stuff is very complicated, yield farming, high APR/APY, short-term focused
4 years ago even the ponzis were more honorable; now there’s a lot more obfuscation going on
Make a stablecoin that can survive USD hyperinflation
3 – Identity – authentication; attestations; domain names; ENS; proof of personhood
Don’t think identity focused blockchains will work
RSA: Identity is emergent, a byproduct of what you’re building (eg, Facebook is useful and ID emerged, same with Google / Gmail)
ETH wallets vs PGP keys – PGP used to be strongest cypherpunk meme, now ETH wallet just works and is being adopted and is public/private key pair – possible bc big username
Standards emerge over time – eg, POAP as attestation protocol
Crypto is not just product, but also a community
4 – DAOs – set to replace things other than corporations (which are big and need the infrastructure);
Where DAO makes sense
-Quickly spin up multi-sig of 7 people
-Setup a truly decentralized org that is resistant to attacks
Less bullish on DAO as VC fund
How to setup non financial governance? How to resist 51% attack from token holders?
eg, Maker has 7B in capital (TVL), but governance token is only worth 500M mcap – could buy up token and get access to capital
5 – Hybrid apps – partially onchain; more centralized services
eg, Centralized exchanges with proof of reserve attestations, or games / social media that post occasionally to chain
DH: similar to L2s post data to L1 that forces them to play by set of rules
DH: Blockchain is a check on human folly
How do we achieve this?
-continue interacting with regulators
-give grants to enable builders working on important problems (eg, self custody wallets)
What is Vitalik’s role in 2023
Helping projects, explore app space, ETH protocol stuff, push EVM in good trajectory, connect with various ETH communities around world, helping ETH ecosystem be stable and self-supporting
Rumor that he wants to turn “gas” into “mana” – he even proposed splitting gas into several types of gas, and naming one of them mana