I think this cycle (2024 and 20205) could be the last great crypto bull run. A bull run that surprises everyone, with price action more like 2017 than 2020, and a prolonged and absolutely silly banana zone (to borrow Raoul’s term).
I really like this thread from Yano: https://x.com/jasonyanowitz/status/1762878540280946737?s=46
Using his framework, we’re now between stage 2 (excitement) and 3 (euphoria). We’re seeing many signs of euphoria already: break ATHs; $500M VC funds; athletes & artists. Stage 3 will accelerate as soon as bitcoin re-captures its ATH (~$73K) and I believe we’ll fly — almost teleport — directly to stage 4, which in Yano’s words:
This stage could also be described as Insanity. Nothing makes sense anymore…A crypto person buys a sports team…Justin Bieber joins a decentralized social platform.
Another good framing from Qiao:
top signs of the last cycle, eg celebrities endorsing crypto, r too obvious to work again this cycle
think 10x bigger
this cycle itll be something like mega pension funds or sovereign states yolo into btc
Source: https://x.com/QwQiao/status/1795545263727120778
Hard agree. El Salvador is showing impressive returns (financial and reputational) to their BTC adoption strategy. Nation states are investing in BTC mining. Sovereign funds are rumored to be quietly accumulating (Saudi Arabia, Norway, Kuwait).
The game theory is unfurling, and increasingly unavoidable as government debt continues to rise and fiat currencies continue to subsequently weaken.
Look at gold’s current run. Look at G7 long term bond yields.
And finally from Gwarty:
I am horrified to think about what the top signals are going to be this cycle
Source: https://x.com/GwartyGwart/status/1795896460602409076
Some more signs the highway to the banana zone is coming, and is gonna be quite a ride:
- The US presidential race hasn’t begun in earnest, yet crypto is already a meaningful wedge issue (SAB121, Trump’s endorsement, FIT21, ETH ETF)
- Fed rate cuts have yet to start (expectations for the first cut in late Q3/Q4)
- Mainstream has started buying and announcing bags in earnest (Bitcoin ETF 13F filings, Fink and Blackrock heavily leaning in, Chamath on All-In)
- We haven’t even seen this cycle’s SBF, Do Kwon, Alex Mashinsky… (or have we)
And how will we know we’re in the zone? Some wild signals:
Last cycle darlings get a rescue pump (Doge passes ATH at $0.68 / $100B market cap, on rumors of potential Dogecoin ETF; NFT pumps including yes, even those poor Apes)
Crypto influencers become nominal billionaires (this cycle’s main characters like Ansem… puncher’s chance to Andrew Tate…). Probably a non-crypto influencer launches a billion dollar coin… Iggy may get lucky if she keeps grinding and memeing (just watch the fomo that will result)
Bitcoin briefly top ticks gold’s market cap (a hand wavy $10T which implies a per bitcoin price of ~$500K USD)
Ethereum briefly top ticks Bitcoin’s market cap (if this happens, it would happen AFTER bitcoin top ticks gold, then crashes, then ETH has an epic run)
Punks surpass $1M (~10x today’s prices)
Raoul Pal is anointed Wall Street’s crypto pied piper, briefly obtaining Bill Ackman and Stanley Druckenmiller levels of influence (think Novogratz but 10x bigger, on magazine covers, TV mainstay, all of that)
A nation-state on the level of UAE or Brazil or Switzerland publicly announces multi-B crypto holdings (could be Bitcoin, could be Ethereum, could be a surprise like Ripple hah) and a set of policies to attract crypto natives and encourage local crypto adoption
The AI hype becomes completely subsumed by crypto; “AI-crypto” projects and narratives dominate non-crypto AI; OpenAI / Sama join the party with some superficially promising but substantively meaningless announcement
Massive M&A in crypto space from miners to exchanges to protocols (Robinhood’s $200M purchase of Bitstamp is an appetizer)
One of the FAANG/MAMAA tech giants becomes first to stake brand and reputation into crypto (my bet is on Meta because of 1, their recent support for open source AI, 2 their failed attempt with Libra, and 3 Zuck’s ambition and continued ability to reinvent)
A meaningful number of provincial / local governments start to buy regulated crypto products; US states are heavily indebted so I’d expect players like Texas, or Hawaii, or maybe at municipal / county level to participate
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Where do you think I’m wrong? What am I missing? I plan to add more stuff here as we get deeper into the cycle.