Tag: arthur hayes

5 Minute Crypto – 🤖 GPT-4 rewriting my show notes 🤖

DALL·E 2023-04-25 19.52.23 - cute robot taking notes while listening to a podcast, cartoon anime style
I’ve been recording a daily 5 minute crypto news update for the last few weeks. Today I asked GPT-4 to rewrite the show notes (which you can see here) into a “simple concise article”. Here’s what it gave me – color me impressed!

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Title: Crypto Daily Update: Onchain Billionaires, Ethereum’s Next Upgrade, Dune Dashboards, Market Structure, and Arthur Hayes

On Tuesday, April 25th, Bitcoin is trading at around $27,300, and Ethereum is at $1,800, both experiencing a 1% drop in the last 24 hours.

Blockworks recently published an article discussing “onchain billionaires” who own identifiable crypto wallets with assets worth more than $1 billion. Among them are Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin, Ripple’s Jed McCaleb, TRON’s Justin Sun, and the mysterious Bitcoin inventor Satoshi Nakamoto.

Ethereum’s next upgrade, called Cancun-Deneb, was announced by the core developers. The upgrade will consist of two parts: Cancun as the execution layer and Deneb as the consensus layer. The most significant part of the upgrade is EIP 4844, dubbed proto danksharding, which will lower transaction costs for layer 2 solutions like Optimism and Arbitrum.

Dune dashboard data provided by 0xkofi reveals insights into rollup economics. Arbitrum has more than double Optimism’s total transaction fee revenues, with ZKSync coming in third. Arbitrum also posts twice the amount of transaction data and has had nearly seven times more builders deploying smart contracts this month compared to Optimism.

A tweet thread by Zero IKA covers basic market structures, including bullish, bearish, and neutral/ranging. Moving averages can be utilized to understand market shifts, such as 9-day or 200-day moving averages.

Q1 insights from Electric Capital highlight the growth of crypto developers. Notable takeaways include the presence of 7,000 full-time developers, a dip in the number of new developers and repositories, and high growth ecosystems such as Aztec Network, Metamask, and Hyperledger.

GOP Majority Whip Tom Emmer criticizes SEC Chair Gary Gensler in a tweet thread, accusing him of incompetence, abuse of power, and contradictory statements that create chaos in the market.

Ethereum is a unique triple-point asset, combining properties of capital assets, transformable assets, and store-of-value assets. This unprecedented combination creates a new investment and ownership paradigm.

Arthur Hayes shares his latest essay, “Exit Liquidity,” discussing the future of trade, the use of multiple currencies, and potential roles of gold and Bitcoin in the global economy.

(written by GPT-4; art by DALL-E)

Arthur’s latest essay on Central Banks, yield curve control, and geopolitics

Very much worth a read if you’re interested in global macro.

Source: https://blog.bitmex.com/contagion/

Some snippets:

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Of all the types of money printing, the most disastrous for the value of fiat currency – and by extension, society – is YCC. […] Central banks that engage in YCC are essentially pledging to infinitely expand their balance sheets such that a particular interest rate metric does not rise above an unnatural ceiling set by the central bank. The market ALWAYS wins, and the market wins by inflicting crushing inflation on the entirety of human civilisation.

The entire goal of modern European history has been preventing Germany and Russia from joining forces. The manufacturing prowess of the Germans combined with cheap Russian commodities could be a game-changing force from a geopolitical point of view

The EU is an artifice – a political ploy of France to keep Germany down, which the Germans only went along with due to their guilt over WWII. The US shares France’s interests, and it too lurks in the shadows, standing ready to prevent any real alliance between Germany and Russia. A weak EU serves the political interests of America quite well

France, to its credit – and I find very few geopolitical things to give France credit for – actually did the intelligent thing and went all in on nuclear energy. Roughly 70% of electricity generation is nuclear powered. Therefore, their manufacturing base can withstand the cessation of Russian gas flows. Germany, on the other hand, cannot

America is self-sufficient in food, fuel, and people. China, Europe, Japan, and the UK are not so blessed. America can be an autarky if it pleases. As a result, the Fed has the luxury of being able to prioritise domestic political concerns regarding inflation over and above supplying the world (and most of its allies) with a constant flow of dollars. A constant flow of dollars allows the rest of the world to print their currencies and still afford to buy energy in USD terms. It’s a relative game, and if the strongest player goes their own way, everyone else is left to suffer.

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