Theme: ASEAN adjusting to geopolitical tides
Talk given April 2022
**ASEAN is consequential because we’re weak, don’t threaten anybody – neighbors much bigger
Succeed by being neutral, soft, friendly to everybody
Most diverse region in world – ethnicity, religion, political systems, languages
Diversity result of geography
SEA is mishmash – find bit of China and India in every country
**Singapore is most ASEAN-ized – because it has more people from all of these countries
Singapore reflects ASEAN
**World going thru interesting period – sense that something big is happening, feeling uneasy, like background easy, like distant thunder
China threatening US dominance
When America talks rules-based order, it’s an American-dominated one
As Asia grows, do not want to be talked down to by Americans or Europeans
Increasing they’re hitting back – you’re not perfect either
When US criticizes China in Xinjiang, China shows what American settlers did to Native Americans
**China prepared for long period of struggle with US
China plays along, but don’t show weakness – dual circulation economy (internal economy robust against foreign interference)
Preparing internationally for de-coupling
Preparing solutions for each potential attack vector – financial system, technology, military
US discomfort that China is rising – non-whites are pushing back
A bit hypocritical – allowed to criticize China but won’t take criticism
India has unique reaction because of its own conflicts with China
1962 – India-China war
India will play its own game – even though US wants it as an ally
India is too big to wanna be dependent on anyone
**There’s no settled India-China border – British drew it with Tibet
Like to put pressure on each other
**Putin wrote thoughtful essay about Ukraine+Russian history – about how Russia begin in Kiev
Putin in KGB watched Soviet Union collapse, became taxi driver, saw how Yeltsin was manipulated by west and oligarchs
He wanted put stop to this
He knew America preferred Russia be broken up further
NATO keeps expanding eastward – Poland, Romania – for long time they’ve suffered under Soviet Union
Kissinger wrote long time ago, Ukraine must always be a buffer state
NATO can’t say they’re against Ukraine joining
Russians asking for formal agreement that Ukraine won’t join – but US / Europe reluctant to give
Both Russia and China expect some storm to come – so they’re making it clear where they can and can’t cooperate
You have situation – US-China which includes South China Sea, Taiwan; on other side Ukraine, future of Europe
ASEAN tries not to get involved
These are big player games
Don’t get involved – there’s no profit to get involved
**ASEAN has overtaken Europe as China’s #1 trading partner – much greater than even US-China trade
China per-capita is low, huge market – China GDP will be size of Europe + America combined
Sense of uneasiness when China is buying up properties, assets
**Suspicion of China is result of rapid change
China not very good at PR – new to them; don’t have facility with English (unlike India which was colonized by Britain)
Philippines has love-hate relationship with America
Many Filipinos have wish to go to America
**Vietnam has love-hate relationship with America and China – 1000 year history with China, have been tributary state
Vietnam language is romanized, but its history is Chinese
Chinese and Vietnamese communist parties have historically had good relationship – settled land border, but quarrel over South China Sea
Thailand – has been successful at balancing external parties
Indonesia – great sense of self, independence