Diversify into what?

David wrote this essay in early 2021, at the height of Bitcoin’s last bull market, and I think the insights are even more valuable now as we enter the early innings of Bitcoin’s current bull market:

The second unfortunate realization I have come to is that Bitcoin is (or soon will be) just about the only investable asset on the planet for the foreseeable future. This may sound like a preposterous statement, but it isn’t. Believe me, I have looked high and low for viable alternatives in order to diversify my portfolio and there simply aren’t any at the moment

And he shares this chart:

Screenshot 2023 12 04 At 09.22.24

Fiat currencies — pretty clear that global inflation will continue to be a problem for the next 5-10 years (and I can’t help you if you believe the mind-virus that is “2% inflation is good for the economy”)

Of the above, other than Bitcoin, I tend to think stocks will do ok, and probably real estate because civilization would collapse if peoples’ home values fell in half. People start marching and burning things when that happens. So that, and bank collapses, are what governments will do anything to prevent (witness China now, and US after 2008).

My favorite (reasonable) Bitcoin price analysts: @BobLoukas and @DavidPBitcoin

There are two analysts that I closely follow for levelheaded analysis of Bitcoin price and potential.

The first is Bob Loukas who tweets occasionally and publishes regular YouTube videos: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0zGwzu0zzCImC1BwPuWyXQ

The second is David P Bitcoin who tweets regularly and publishes a monthly Substack: https://twitter.com/davidpbitcoin

I want to share a few excerpts from David’s most recent October newsletter, which is especially relevant given Bitcoin’s recent price gains.

Counter to the narrative that retail is driving the increase:

October exhibited a clear demarcation between institutional and retail investors. Both whale tiers and the Great Whites experienced address expansion while the Tiger Sharks, Fish and Minnows all experienced contractions. The same is true for coin accumulation, although the Orcas experienced a net coin loss due to the very strong accumulation by the Blue Whales (BWs). While I philosophically prefer more decentralization in terms of coin distribution, there is no denying that the price of BTC benefits when institutions are in accumulation mode as they are now.

On the anticipated US Bitcoin ETF approval:

I think total inflows might even exceed many expectations due to Capitalism 101. i.e., As many as a dozen ETFs could be approved simultaneously, and given how important “first-mover” advantage is, each of the approved issuers will be marketing their ETFs like mad, all trying to grab as much of the pie as they can in an effort to become market leader

I strongly recommend both guys. I’m always looking to learn from new sources, so please share!

*dalle-3 once again wow-ing me…