Podcast notes: Balaji’s $1M bet on Bitcoin and the BitSignal (Bankless podcast) – “America is new Argentina”

Put up the BitSignal – pay $1M to 1000 contributors for memes and stories
Made public bet that BTC will be worth $1M USD in 90 days times

“This is the crisis Bitcoin was built for”

Sounding covid alarm in January 2020, covid hit (the US) in March

On covid
Mental chessboard in his head, if X happens, then Y, Z, etc will happen
Viruses are exponential
Background in genomics

Same frame of mind now – “we’re in the fiat crisis”
All the centralization and opacity of fiat – it’s all blowing up
Will have wrenching transition to crypto economy

RSA: “fiat fire alarm that you’re pulling”, “the all at once moment”

Exact state of world in 90 days will be very different
Not bet on Bitcoin price but on falling value of US dollar

Today USD is no longer too big to fail – there’s RMB, there’s bitcoin

Financial engineering led to house of cards, “the money is gone”
If today, all depositors withdrew money, banks can’t liquidate assets to give them enough dollars

Time bomb was growing, regulators were aware of it

“Uncle Sam Bankman Fried”

Reality: Fed Reserve gave guidance to banks to buy certain assets that then dropped in value (due to rate hikes)
Fed gets lagging data, changes single parameter, highly political process
“Fed bankrupted the banks”

“There are 333 banks where the money is gone”
Also foreign banks who bought US treasuries – global Central Banks using emergency USD swap lines
These banks’ insolvency intentionally hidden in a footnote

Now the can can’t be kicked
Holding a flaming bag of dog poop
Every crisis powers them up – failures mean they get bigger – “more failure more funding”

Do you have an alternative regulator? Don’t you want one that will tell you if your money is still there?

New era, final era – can’t hike rates anymore – printing tons of money to give to banks through BTFP, swap lines
Initially said $25B injection, now it’s up to $2T, it will effectively be infinite

All the small banks, tech banks, will get wrecked
Big banks w/ Fed help positioned as saviors – “both arsonists and firefighter”
At end, will only have 4 giant banks in US, govt rolls out CBDC – now “too big to fail banks” become “too big to escape banks” – government now has control

On other side of this – bitcoin is gold, ethereum is the financial system
Lot of people will be converted overnight into bitcoin maximalism, will be bitcoin jurisdictions

Bitcoin is ONLY thing that Fed does not directly or indirectly administer
Tradfi – Fed has root access – can stop or delist any financial product (except bitcoin / crypto)
One honest signal that they can’t fully fake is Bitcoin – which is an expression of peoples’ desire to exit the (existing financial) system
Thus Operation Chokepoint / fog of war – kill the crypto connected banks like Signature, Silvergate

Lot of fiat banks will go to zero, or become like fiat flytraps

2008 Financial crisis
Rest of world paid for it through inflation, food price spikes
Democrats effectively taxed Republicans, and foreign dollar holders, to pay for the bailout
“Cost was shunted to the invisible”

Foundational macro view is a little inflation is good, deflation is very bad
Bitcoin’s view is deflation is good if caused by Moore’s Law (technology making things cheaper), even a little inflation is bad
American Keynesianism is bad, just like Soviet economics, but it’s just less bad

David: “Bitcoin during times of war, Ethereum during times of peace”

Bitcoin will be protected by enough governments, bitcoin is well understood

“Final digital devaluation of the dollar is coming”

This is not the make money time – everyone will be a lot poorer soon
“America is new Argentina” is not a bad mental model
Dollar holder is bag holder

Many countries (like India) will become gold backed after this

David: Ray Dalio’s macro cycles, 4th turning, all lining up
There are only two banks – Fed Reserve, and Bitcoin

Bitcoin is Schelling point

Hyperbitcoinization is collapse of all fiat currencies against bitcoin
Speed of transition will be shocking, even to Bitcoin maximalists
Most empire transitions happen gradually – eg, Britain > America
Internet is next America

Powell has turned America into Argentina
People will learn you can’t trust the state

Important to understand severity of situation, take calm conscious steps to insure yourself against it
Americans are running old scripts – Powell is doing 80s formula of Volcker hiking rates

Lot of countries that trusted Fed – holding a lot of Treasuries, US dollars – the money is gone

(US citizens) paid for all the regulation but got none of the protection

Hiding bank insolvency in a footnote – it’s a corrupt regime, it’s a betrayal

Russia and China will be unleashed
Taiwan could be captured without a shot

Bitcoin is a “simple” asset – David Andolfatto

Oldie but goodie — Andolfatto is SVP of the Fed Reserve Bank of Louis:

I think that Bitcoin could be the world’s next great safe asset. At least, it certainly seems to have all the properties that are desired in a safe asset. Importantly, it is a “simple” asset. It’s simple in the sense that it’s a pure fiat object–the monetary objects (called /bitcoin/) constitute no legal claim against anything of intrinsic value. Bitcoin is simply a record-keeping technology (and economists have known for a long time that money is memory). It pays no interest. Possession corresponds to ownership (unless counterparties are involved).

Source: https://andolfatto.blogspot.com/2016/03/is-bitcoin-safe-asset.html

And below is “bitcoin as a simple asset” according to Stable Diffusion:

Highlights from Layered Money by Nik Bhatia

An easy to read tour through the history and evolution of money types (from gold coins to today’s fiat paper notes), presented through a useful framework of money layers (that together form a pyramid). Amazon Kindle.

Here are some of my favorite highlights (copied verbatim):

In the second century under the rule of Marcus Aurelius, the denarius coin weighed about 3.4 grams and contained about 80% silver, which was already a reduction from its 98% purity when Augustus Caesar declared himself the first Emperor of Rome three centuries prior. […] By the end of the third century, the denarius had been devalued so frequently that its purity was down to only 5% silver

Historically, precious metal coins were durable, divisible, and portable, but with governments constantly reducing the purity of their coins, no coin existed with multigenerational credibility. The Florentine mint changed that. The florin maintained an unchanged weight and purity, about 3.5 grams of pure gold, spanning an astounding four centuries. By the time the florin denomination was one hundred years old, it had evolved into the international monetary standard for pan-European finance. High salaries, jewelry, real estate, and capital investment were all priced in florin.

Contractions can result in redemption requests, called bank runs, and eventually financial crises. These crises can be more easily thought of as attempts to climb the pyramid of money, as holders of lower-layer money scramble to secure a superior, higher-layer form of money.

The creation of the Antwerp Bourse in 1531 revolutionized money because it birthed the money market. At the time, the money market described the market for second-layer monetary instruments such as bills of exchange, gold deposits, and other promises to pay precious metal.

Governments and currencies are inextricably linked today because governments established a monopoly on second-layer money and used it to their own benefit, starting with the Bank of Amsterdam in 1609.

Up to a thousand different types of coinage circulated in the new international trade hub of Amsterdam, a monetary situation too cumbersome for a city with the world’s first stock market.

By suspending convertibility to first-layer money, the Bank of Amsterdam proved that precious metal wasn’t necessarily required to operate a monetary and financial system. It depended on its own disciplinary constraint to stay sufficiently reserved, and more importantly it depended on the peoples’ trust in that discipline.

Gold is money. Everything else is credit. —J.P. Morgan to United States Congress in 1912

In Virginia, tobacco became a first-layer monetary asset and the basis of its own money pyramid due to the global popularity of the crop. The pound-of-tobacco unit became an accounting standard, and notes promising the delivery of pounds of tobacco were issued by Virginia as second-layer money that circulated among the public as cash.

the second Congress of the United States of America finally passed the Coinage Act in 1792 to establish the United States dollar as the country’s official unit of account, defining one dollar as both 1.6 grams of gold and 24 grams of silver.

Finally, the Act decreed that the Fed maintain a gold-coverage ratio of at least 35% against the liabilities it issued on the second layer, meaning at least 35% of the Fed’s assets must be held in gold. In actuality, gold represented 84% of the Federal Reserve’s assets upon its founding, a number that would dramatically fall over time. Today, for reference, gold represents less than 1% of the Fed’s assets.

Gold’s disciplinary constraint received an outcry of blame for the economy’s inability to recover and led to dramatic and sweeping changes to the dollar pyramid during the 1930s.

FDIC insurance is a federally guaranteed insurance policy on all third-layer bank deposits.

In 1944, world leaders gathered at a hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire and formalized that all currencies besides the dollar were forms of third-layer money within the dollar pyramid. The Bretton Woods agreement would come to be known as the dollar’s world reserve currency coronation.

Nobody could have ever conceived of a more absurd waste of human resources than to dig gold in distant corners of the Earth for the sole purpose of transporting it and reburying it immediately afterward in other deep holes, especially excavated to receive it and heavily guarded to protect it. The history of human intuitions, however, has a logic of its own.

The dollar had become deeply entrenched as the world economy’s denomination: barrels of oil were priced in dollars, trade agreements were struck in dollars, and international bank balances settled in dollars.

In 1971, the United States suspended gold convertibility for the dollar; the suspension initially was supposed to be temporary, but the dollar never returned to any linkage with the commodity. Two years later, the modern era of free-floating currencies began, officially ending the Bretton Woods agreement.

From a layered-money perspective, there aren’t a lot of places in the dollar pyramid that don’t have an explicit or implicit guarantee of liquidity backstop from the Federal Reserve today.

In gold’s absence, the Fed’s balance sheet used U.S. Treasuries as its dominant asset, and the private sector used them as the omnipotent form of monetary collateral. For banks, ownership of these government bonds wielded the power to create yet another type of dollar called Treasury Repo dollars.

By 1979, the Federal Reserve concluded in a study that the explosion in Treasury Repo transactions was in fact causing an overall increase in the measurable supply of dollars and admitted not being able to make that measurement with exact precision. By 1982, the Federal Reserve fully gave up on managing the supply of dollars because they had veritably lost the ability to keep track of it;

When the prestigious investment bank Lehman Brothers failed on September 15, 2008, a money market fund called Reserve Primary Fund famously “broke the buck” when it posted a share price of $0.97 because it owned a fair amount of newly defaulted Lehman Brothers commercial paper. This drop of a mere three cents from par triggered an all-out financial panic that elicited unprecedented emergency actions from central banks and governments around the world. The reason for the panic wasn’t necessarily the three-cent drop, but the fear that if Lehman Brothers commercial paper could fail, and Reserve Primary Fund’s shares weren’t worth a whole dollar, nothing could be trusted. All forms of bank liabilities lost liquidity, and the financial system froze.

A return to peaceful money markets was unattainable, as the Fed had removed price discovery from the system by disallowing so many third-layer money-types from realizing their ultimate fate.

The most fascinating component of Satoshi’s design of Bitcoin was his intention for it to mimic gold as a first-layer, counterparty-free money. And that meant a supply that does not originate from a balance sheet.

Gold is considered an insurance on monetary disorder and disarray, one that tends to work best during earthquakes in the dollar pyramid. But gold’s physicality falls short in a digital world where Bitcoin thrives. Eventually, Bitcoin will likely replace gold as the most desired neutral money and exceed it in total market value.

All of the above highlights are copied verbatim from the book.