Collection of recent crypto learnings: “Crypto is the machine’s body. And AI is the brain that enters into it.”

Below are some thoughtful and entertaining crypto-related content

Redphonecrypto’s 69 Theses for 2023

Great presentation on crypto’s “big picture”, a bit quasi-religious and grandiose but it’s good crypto hopium if you’re into that sorta thing. Source: https://redphone.substack.com/p/69-dreams-and-delusions

Crypto, you see, is a stepping stone on the journey to AGI. It is a prerequisite, a necessary appendage that allows artificial consciousness to “escape the box” and manipulate its environs.

Crypto is the machine’s body.
And AI is the brain that enters into it.

Bull markets are not mere monetary phenomena. They are collective, psychological, soul-bound events powered by our dreams.

Fundamental analysis always skips the most important metric in crypto: attention.
Nothing matters more (see memecoins or NFTs for evidence).

Variant Fund’s A Tale of Two Cryptos: Speculation vs Decentralization

Our thesis at Variant is that the next generation of internet networks will turn users into owners—specifically asset owners. The internet enabled everyone to become a publisher, and similarly, crypto enables everyone to become an asset owner, and therefore, an investor. You don’t need capital to invest, you can invest your time or work by producing art, running machines, or doing physical work.

The prospect of participating in economic growth is what has drawn in so many entrepreneurs and users—and it’s important because some portion of those users learn from those experiences, to think, and act, like investors. It often starts with things that look like toys (or dogs) but drives towards a serious shift in psychology, where money, effort, or skill are honed to contribute more seriously to the space

Quinn Thompson – Lekker’s 5 key themes for 2024

Beginning in Q2 and into Q3 ahead of the November election, the Fed and incumbent administration will declare victory in the war against inflation. Ironically, these proclamations reach a fever pitch just as inflation is bottoming around September 2024, approximately 27 months after the June 2022 peak. As a result, stocks and risk assets post record breaking numbers in Q2 and Q3. The narrative will be something along the lines of “no matter who wins the election, red or blue, both candidates will spend egregiously”. The reality is this continued heavy spending combined with lower interest rates will be the spark that reignites another bout of inflation and will ultimately be bad for long duration and risk assets.

Crypto is in a secular bull market, while also making its first steps into a new cyclical bull market. These two together create big outcomes.

Balaji’s Thoughts on Tokens

The most important takehome is that tokens are not equity, but are more similar to paid API keys. Nevertheless, they may represent a >1000X improvement in the time-to-liquidity and a >100X improvement in the size of the buyer base relative to traditional means for US technology financing — like a Kickstarter on steroids

For example, when you buy an API key from Amazon Web Services for dollars, you can redeem that API key for time on Amazon’s cloud. The purchase of a token like ether is similar, in that you can redeem ETH for compute time on the decentralized Ethereum compute network.

After the early kinks are worked out, the token launch model will provide a technically feasible way for tech companies (and open source projects in general) to spread the wealth and align their userbase behind their success. This is a better-than-free business model, where users make money for being early adopters

Podcast notes: Balaji’s $1M bet on Bitcoin and the BitSignal (Bankless podcast) – “America is new Argentina”

Put up the BitSignal – pay $1M to 1000 contributors for memes and stories
Made public bet that BTC will be worth $1M USD in 90 days times

“This is the crisis Bitcoin was built for”

Sounding covid alarm in January 2020, covid hit (the US) in March

On covid
Mental chessboard in his head, if X happens, then Y, Z, etc will happen
Viruses are exponential
Background in genomics

Same frame of mind now – “we’re in the fiat crisis”
All the centralization and opacity of fiat – it’s all blowing up
Will have wrenching transition to crypto economy

RSA: “fiat fire alarm that you’re pulling”, “the all at once moment”

Exact state of world in 90 days will be very different
Not bet on Bitcoin price but on falling value of US dollar

Today USD is no longer too big to fail – there’s RMB, there’s bitcoin

Financial engineering led to house of cards, “the money is gone”
If today, all depositors withdrew money, banks can’t liquidate assets to give them enough dollars

Time bomb was growing, regulators were aware of it

“Uncle Sam Bankman Fried”

Reality: Fed Reserve gave guidance to banks to buy certain assets that then dropped in value (due to rate hikes)
Fed gets lagging data, changes single parameter, highly political process
“Fed bankrupted the banks”

“There are 333 banks where the money is gone”
Also foreign banks who bought US treasuries – global Central Banks using emergency USD swap lines
These banks’ insolvency intentionally hidden in a footnote

Now the can can’t be kicked
Holding a flaming bag of dog poop
Every crisis powers them up – failures mean they get bigger – “more failure more funding”

Do you have an alternative regulator? Don’t you want one that will tell you if your money is still there?

New era, final era – can’t hike rates anymore – printing tons of money to give to banks through BTFP, swap lines
Initially said $25B injection, now it’s up to $2T, it will effectively be infinite

All the small banks, tech banks, will get wrecked
Big banks w/ Fed help positioned as saviors – “both arsonists and firefighter”
At end, will only have 4 giant banks in US, govt rolls out CBDC – now “too big to fail banks” become “too big to escape banks” – government now has control

On other side of this – bitcoin is gold, ethereum is the financial system
Lot of people will be converted overnight into bitcoin maximalism, will be bitcoin jurisdictions

Bitcoin is ONLY thing that Fed does not directly or indirectly administer
Tradfi – Fed has root access – can stop or delist any financial product (except bitcoin / crypto)
One honest signal that they can’t fully fake is Bitcoin – which is an expression of peoples’ desire to exit the (existing financial) system
Thus Operation Chokepoint / fog of war – kill the crypto connected banks like Signature, Silvergate

Lot of fiat banks will go to zero, or become like fiat flytraps

2008 Financial crisis
Rest of world paid for it through inflation, food price spikes
Democrats effectively taxed Republicans, and foreign dollar holders, to pay for the bailout
“Cost was shunted to the invisible”

Foundational macro view is a little inflation is good, deflation is very bad
Bitcoin’s view is deflation is good if caused by Moore’s Law (technology making things cheaper), even a little inflation is bad
American Keynesianism is bad, just like Soviet economics, but it’s just less bad

David: “Bitcoin during times of war, Ethereum during times of peace”

Bitcoin will be protected by enough governments, bitcoin is well understood

“Final digital devaluation of the dollar is coming”

This is not the make money time – everyone will be a lot poorer soon
“America is new Argentina” is not a bad mental model
Dollar holder is bag holder

Many countries (like India) will become gold backed after this

David: Ray Dalio’s macro cycles, 4th turning, all lining up
There are only two banks – Fed Reserve, and Bitcoin

Bitcoin is Schelling point

Hyperbitcoinization is collapse of all fiat currencies against bitcoin
Speed of transition will be shocking, even to Bitcoin maximalists
Most empire transitions happen gradually – eg, Britain > America
Internet is next America

Powell has turned America into Argentina
People will learn you can’t trust the state

Important to understand severity of situation, take calm conscious steps to insure yourself against it
Americans are running old scripts – Powell is doing 80s formula of Volcker hiking rates

Lot of countries that trusted Fed – holding a lot of Treasuries, US dollars – the money is gone

(US citizens) paid for all the regulation but got none of the protection

Hiding bank insolvency in a footnote – it’s a corrupt regime, it’s a betrayal

Russia and China will be unleashed
Taiwan could be captured without a shot

Recent Twitter threads – Worldcoin, Metaverse, Balaji, Zoltan Poszar, and Doodles

I’ve been posting podcast notes directly to Twitter in an effort to grow my following. So far I’d give it a straight B as a marketing tactic.

Anyway here are the threads I’ve shared the past week — all podcast notes.

Worldcoin CEO on Epicenter podcast:

Legendary game designer Raph Koster talking about metaverse:

Balaji on the Farnam Street podcast:

…and part 2

Zoltan Poszar on Odd Lots talking about Bretton Woods 3

Doodles founder poopie on Overpriced JPEGs podcast

Balaji’s crazed wisdom on Howard Lindzon podcast: “There will be both deflation in wants and inflation in needs”

Balaji appeared on Howard Lindzon’s Panic With Friends recently and I took a bunch of notes and wanted to share them here. As usual Balaji is going 150mph and some of his insights are pretty out there, but clearly the product of deep thought and research. So I need to review what he says multiple times, over an extended period of time, to really let it sink in and do whatever our thoughts do in that squishy computer we have in our skulls.

The notes without attribution are what Balaji said, and I try to note “HL” where I’m sure it was Howard. But there will be mistakes, and they’re solely mine:

This is America’s first real defeat

Buffett is like the turkey who’s been fattened his whole life and suddenly it’s Thanksgiving

HL: If you own a China stock after Luckin then you’re just lazy. They even cheat coffee, which should be one of the easiest things to sell because it’s an addictive product

Thinks 3 very prescient people: Thiel (US can’t innovate); Gates (actually predicted a pandemic); KaiFu Lee (China can innovate)

“Any sufficiently advanced execution is indistinguishable from magic” re: China ability to build a train station in a day
// a twist on Clarke’s “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic”

During Yeltsin’s US trip, the moment he seemed to admit defeat was one of the most mundane – when he visited a random Albertson’s

Govts aren’t giving back powers they gained while fighting coronavirus
To fight this, you will need encryption and crypto

The two extremes of coronavirus world is “total state” (China, SKorea) or “market anarchy” (parts of US, Sweden)

Expects UBI, will be both deflation in wants and inflation in needs

Everything physical becomes expensive, all digital versions – travel, games, courts, education – will dominate and in this world digital currency is very important

Internet turned everyone into publishers, crypto turns everyone into investors

Buffett seemed tired – just realizing how hard it is, things have changed, can’t blame the guy for being lost, their fearful leader (speaking of the Buffett investing acolytes) is not a tech person

HL: “We’ve gone from an extrovert world to an introvert world”