Tag: organized religion

I plan to write more about organized religions and what we can learn from studying all of them, no matter how we describe our own faith.

Today, let’s briefly talk about the Lindy Effect. I first learned about it in Nassim Taleb’s book Antifragile.

The Lindy Effect, in Taleb’s words:

If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not “aging” like persons, but “aging” in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life!

I’m always amazed at just how long organized religions have survived in some form.

Hinduism is 3500 years old.

Islam is 1500 years old.

Catholicism is 2000 years old.

By comparison, the oldest company – according to Slate Magazine – is Sudo Honke, a Japanese sake brewer started in 1141, or almost 2000 years old.

How many of you have heard of Sudo Honke? Or drank its sake?

The oldest company on the NYSE is Consolidated Edison, which was first listed in 1824 and was then called New York Gas Light. 194 years old.

The oldest university still in operation is The University of Karueein, founded in 859 CE in Morocco. 1159 years old.

And for a contemporary spin, let’s look at the most recognized business brands in the world and their current age in 2018 [source]:

1. Apple ($184 billion) – founded 1976, or 42 years old
2. Google ($141.7 billion) – founded 1998, or 19 years old (this surprised me)
3. Microsoft ($80 billion) – founded 1975, or 43 years old
4. Coca-Cola ($69.7 billion) – founded 1892, or 126 years old
5. Amazon ($64.8 billion) – founded 1994, or 23 years old

I challenge you to identify an institution today that is as old – and pervasive – as our most established religions. (seriously, I’m curious if they’re out there)

And it’s not like Hinduism and Judaism are struggling to survive, barely hanging onto relevance and meaning. Despite what media headlines and vocal critics would have you believe, religion is not dying. Far from it. We can park that discussion for a later essay, but the numbers clearly show that organized religions are still massive, and still growing [source].

Hinduism has 1B followers.

Christianity, 2.2B

Islam, 1.6B.

Judaism, 14M.

Those user numbers might not *seem* that impressive when compared to Whatsapp, which attracted 1.5B monthly users in less than 10 years. Facebook has 2.2B monthly users. Coca Cola serves almost 2B drinks every day.

But if forced to choose, would most Christians abandon their faith or Facebook? Would most Muslims delete Whatsapp or stop praying? How important is Coke, really, to society or the individual? I’m not sure. Just posing some questions.

Back to the Lindy Effect: the only tangible things I can think of that have survived for longer than religion are foundational technologies: like the written word (5000 years old) or metal coinage (4000 years old).

Otherwise you’d have to fall back on the non-tangible, like philosophy (Stoicism is 2300 years old) or stories (The Epic of Gilgamesh is 4800 years old).

So is religion a technology? What exactly is religion? What counts as an “organized religion”? All great questions, saved for later.

Let me end with:

If we believe there is at least *some* value in things because they are older and have survived longer – whether a book, a song, a person, or an institution – then we need to study organized religions more and more deeply.

If we read The Odyssey because it’s a Greek classic, then we should read the Rig Veda because it’s a Hindu classic.

If we listen to Beethoven because he was one of the composing greats, then we should listen to Christian hymns for similar reasons.

And if we believe some diets are better because people have practiced them for millennia (for example, the caveman diet, or the Mediterranean diet), then we should pay close attention to Ramadan and monastery culinary practices.

And finally, just reflect on how much time and energy and headline space we devote to the institutions of the moment, whether the American Presidency or Microsoft or cryptocurrency. If we are to believe the Lindy Effect, then it’s likely that all of these things will be gone long before Orthodox churches, and the Hindu festival of Diwali, and the Islamic practice of zakat (charity). Shouldn’t we start paying attention to those as well?

Thanks for reading. More ramblings to come!