Tuur Demeester’s great report on bitcoin: “In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable”

Tuur’s last 2 (or 3?) reports have also come during bear markets, and he’s called his shots almost to perfection.

Original report: https://unchained.com/how-to-position-bitcoin-boom

I did a 7-minute-ish podcast deep dive: https://twodegens.buzzsprout.com/2073784/12901355-5-minute-crypto-deep-dive-on-tuur-demeester-s-bitcoin-report-adamant-unchained

And here were some of my favorite excerpts (all copied verbatim):

During this accumulation phase, we expect for bitcoin to trade in a range of $22,000 to $42,000, until a new multi-year bull market pushes it well north of $120,000.

Today is no different—we see extraordinarily strong fundamentals, robust and sustained technological progress, and an unparalleled level of conviction among long-time bitcoin investors, all ready to fuel a global buying spree and sustained new adoption.

Investing in bitcoin, we believe, is like having the ability to buy shares of a general “Internet ETF” back in the early 1990s, or like being able to buy undeveloped land on Manhattan Island at the start of the Industrial Revolution—it’s the opportunity of a lifetime.

On a multi-year timeframe, bitcoin correlates with very few global macro phenomena. A consistent exception seems to be changes in the fiat money supply: stimulus campaigns are positively correlated with bitcoin bull markets.

For Europe, Latin America, Africa, Asia and Oceania, we believe the legal reality will vary greatly and we’ll see a growing polarization emerge: some countries will embrace bitcoin (see our section about nation state adoption), whereas others will actively try to discourage citizens from using or holding it.

And finally, a new favorite quote:

“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” – Robert Arnott

US taxpayers keep paying for US banks’ (and the Fed’s) incompetence

From Jesse Myers’ Substack about this week’s JP Morgan takeover of failing First Republic Bank.

All I can say is le sigh:

80% of losses on the assumed loans will be “shared” by the government, meaning they are funded ultimately by the taxpayer. Similarly, the $50B FDIC loan at an undisclosed fixed rate is risk borne ultimately by the taxpayer, in order to fatten the deal enough for JPMorgan to expect a 20% IRR on what would have been massively unattractive without taxpayer-funded incentives

Privatized gains, socialized losses. 2008, but bigger, and fewer people care. Homo domesticus.

The Fed prints $3T, oops we have 10% inflation.

Let’s fix this by rapidly jacking rates; oops, we have bank failures.

Let’s blame it on crypto and supply shocks and anything but our own self-serving incompetence.

Come on, people, just buy BTC and ETH and at least partially opt the f out!

Source: https://jessemyers.substack.com/p/651-may-2023-market-update-on-bitcoin

Two Degens – George’s interview with Daniel Hwang, and more 5 Minute Crypto

Howdy, how is everyone?

Just some Two Degens updates to share. George had a great chat with his friend and crypto OG Daniel Hwang (who’s been in crypto since early bitcoin mining days, worked at Terra among others, and just knows a TON). Pardon the bit of background noise there.

I’ve also been doing the daily 5 minute crypto update. With a few breaks here or there lol

Check ’em out, and please let us know how we can do better. I have to admit it’s been a joy to get back to making content. We’ll probably add video soon so you can see our filtered faces ;)

5 Minute Crypto – 🤖 GPT-4 rewriting my show notes 🤖

DALL·E 2023-04-25 19.52.23 - cute robot taking notes while listening to a podcast, cartoon anime style
I’ve been recording a daily 5 minute crypto news update for the last few weeks. Today I asked GPT-4 to rewrite the show notes (which you can see here) into a “simple concise article”. Here’s what it gave me – color me impressed!

Title: Crypto Daily Update: Onchain Billionaires, Ethereum’s Next Upgrade, Dune Dashboards, Market Structure, and Arthur Hayes

On Tuesday, April 25th, Bitcoin is trading at around $27,300, and Ethereum is at $1,800, both experiencing a 1% drop in the last 24 hours.

Blockworks recently published an article discussing “onchain billionaires” who own identifiable crypto wallets with assets worth more than $1 billion. Among them are Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin, Ripple’s Jed McCaleb, TRON’s Justin Sun, and the mysterious Bitcoin inventor Satoshi Nakamoto.

Ethereum’s next upgrade, called Cancun-Deneb, was announced by the core developers. The upgrade will consist of two parts: Cancun as the execution layer and Deneb as the consensus layer. The most significant part of the upgrade is EIP 4844, dubbed proto danksharding, which will lower transaction costs for layer 2 solutions like Optimism and Arbitrum.

Dune dashboard data provided by 0xkofi reveals insights into rollup economics. Arbitrum has more than double Optimism’s total transaction fee revenues, with ZKSync coming in third. Arbitrum also posts twice the amount of transaction data and has had nearly seven times more builders deploying smart contracts this month compared to Optimism.

A tweet thread by Zero IKA covers basic market structures, including bullish, bearish, and neutral/ranging. Moving averages can be utilized to understand market shifts, such as 9-day or 200-day moving averages.

Q1 insights from Electric Capital highlight the growth of crypto developers. Notable takeaways include the presence of 7,000 full-time developers, a dip in the number of new developers and repositories, and high growth ecosystems such as Aztec Network, Metamask, and Hyperledger.

GOP Majority Whip Tom Emmer criticizes SEC Chair Gary Gensler in a tweet thread, accusing him of incompetence, abuse of power, and contradictory statements that create chaos in the market.

Ethereum is a unique triple-point asset, combining properties of capital assets, transformable assets, and store-of-value assets. This unprecedented combination creates a new investment and ownership paradigm.

Arthur Hayes shares his latest essay, “Exit Liquidity,” discussing the future of trade, the use of multiple currencies, and potential roles of gold and Bitcoin in the global economy.

(written by GPT-4; art by DALL-E)

a16z 2023 State of Crypto – a shallow dive + podcast episode

Went through the a16z 2023 State of Crypto and pulled out some interesting slides + my own notes. I also recorded a podcast episode about it (as part of the 5 minute daily update):

Here we gooo:

Screenshot 2023-04-17 at 3.12.18 PM

Web1 was decentralized (email protocol, web protocol) but limited functionality, and no value accrual

Web2 was centralized into Google, Facebook, etc, advanced functionality, but value accrued to big tech

Web3 is decentralized again, community governed, and value accrues to participants

Screenshot 2023-04-17 at 3.14.28 PM

Web2 take rates are something like 30-100%
30% for services like Spotify and Apple App Store
100% for FB, Twitter

Web3 take rates are much lower – or even pay participants (like ETH’s PoS)
OpenSea is 2.5%, Uniswap is 0.30%

Screenshot 2023-04-17 at 3.15.19 PM

With each cycle, the market gets larger
-higher price
-more usage
-more developers
-more projects

Screenshot 2023-04-17 at 3.15.46 PM

ETH is scaling through rollups
In 2022, L2s paid less than 2% of all ETH fees
Now it’s closer to 7%

Screenshot 2023-04-17 at 3.17.41 PM

The big brands are all here – from mass consumer brands like Starbucks and Adidas and Budweiser to luxury brands like Tiffany and LV and Porsche

Screenshot 2023-04-17 at 3.18.08 PM

DAO governance is growing
From barely 50K monthly proposals in 2021 to more than 200K today
2M unique DAO voters

Screenshot 2023-04-17 at 3.19.50 PM

More than 50K monthly crypto developers on Github

Screenshot 2023-04-17 at 3.20.17 PM

Active addresses steadily growing
From less than 5M in 2018, to more than 15M today, across all blockchains

Screenshot 2023-04-17 at 3.22.40 PM

What A16z expects in the coming years
-Zero knowledge tech will accelerate
-On chain games will grow in popularity
-Light clients will accelerate web3 and mobile
-in the US, bipartisan crypto regulation will pass