Podcast notes – Hasu and Mike on MEV (Bell Curve) – “If a single regulatory regime can make rules in crypto, then crypto has just failed”

Hosts: Hasu and Mike
Hasu – advisor to Flashbots, Lido

MEV value chain
-money from reordering / censoring transactions
any value a privileged actor can extract – eg, Central Bank printing money, can be considered MEV

People use crypto to escape MEV in real world

Should build crypto systems resilient to MEV

Principles in reducing MEV
-more competition = lower fees, less MEV
-more private = harder to extract MEV
-more user control

MEV is invisible – even looking at transaction data in Etherscan, won’t see sandwich attack

Parties:
Users
Wallets
Searchers
Builders
Relayers
Validators

MEV schools
1. Democratizing MEV – hard to minimize MEV, isolate builders role, make it competitive
2. Minimize MEV –

User/wallet layer – order flow auctions – users don’t send to public mempool or block builder, auctions off right to execute your transaction, if there are competing bidders, the price rises, and value goes to user (instead of to MEV capturer)

Mike: “Payment for order flow” – Robinhood offering zero fees, selling order flow to Citadel / hedge funds
Mike: In past, equity brokerages would charge you for trades – now people have opted for free trades / invisible fees (eg, Robinhood)
We can do better in Defi – especially the transparency

World of Cosmos and Ethereum are converging – ETH community has been better at executing
Hard to say in future if X project is ETH or Cosmos project – there’s increasing convergence

MEV accrues to whomever gets to order the transactions
Mike: MEV will accrue to execution layer

L2 sequencers today are centralized – with plans to decentralize – will eventually face same MEV problems as ETH L1
L2s all need PBS (proposer builder separation)

Sequencers today in L2 does 4 things
-receive transactions
-decide on ordering of transactions
-give user a receipt
-send order batch to data availability layer — that’s what creates finality

MEV should not be counted towards security budget — that’s how core devs think about it, want to minimize and not enshrine it
Minimum security should be paid from inflation + base fee

“MEV is very hard to track”

Different forms of MEV
-arbitrage – different prices on different exchanges, or underpriced asset
-sandwich attacks – buy before a user, then sell it to the user at higher price
-liquidations – searchers typically do this

Uniswap V3 – concentrated liquidity – reduced sandwich attacks

Statistical arbitrage – take balance sheet risk, small period of time where you have to hold asset before selling it

Many top Defi traders are also block builders – want to maximize inclusion guarantee, greater control over trading strategy – can make trade at last moment, can see all other transactions and order / cancel them

In systems we build, must make sure they’re not sensitive to latency — otherwise there’s incentive to colocate near each other, more centralization
Phil Daian post on this: https://collective.flashbots.net/t/decentralized-crypto-needs-you-to-be-a-geographical-decentralization-maxi/1385

Turn latency into price / auction, auctions are generally more fair, and price (ability to pay) is easier to decentralize than geographic proximity

Users love Robinhood because good feature is very visible (free trades) and bad feature is very invisible (selling user order flow)

Mike: Optimism and Arbitrum have very different approaches to MEV

“Solana is case study for why to not build low latency blockchains”
1 of 2 Solana block builders is operating liquid staking protocol
If you don’t have robust mempool and fee market design, get a lot of spam
58% of Solana transactions are failed arbitrage transactions

What’s novel in Cosmos —
-Osmosis doing something very interesting – onchain block building and searching
-Noma (sp?) & Penumbra – intent based transaction framework

Mike: Cosmos has very different opinions, diversity of ideas
Hasu: Big drawback is everyone has different validator sets, but as shared security grows, what compromises will be made?

How does regulation bump into MEV?
Crypto is about fair and equitable markets for users with less manipulation and exploitation
Execution on public blockchains is continually improving
Regulators are largely pragmatic

“If a single regulatory regime can make rules in crypto, then crypto has just failed”

Two new Degens episodes with Imran from Kyber, and George and I shootin’ the crypto breeze

Lucky to have Imran Mohamad, Kyber’s marketing lead, to discuss in his words:

And in a separate episode, Jorge and I catch up on all the latest crypto shenanies and macro hankies and bank bailout pankies. Yup.

Podcast notes: Balaji’s $1M bet on Bitcoin and the BitSignal (Bankless podcast) – “America is new Argentina”

Put up the BitSignal – pay $1M to 1000 contributors for memes and stories
Made public bet that BTC will be worth $1M USD in 90 days times

“This is the crisis Bitcoin was built for”

Sounding covid alarm in January 2020, covid hit (the US) in March

On covid
Mental chessboard in his head, if X happens, then Y, Z, etc will happen
Viruses are exponential
Background in genomics

Same frame of mind now – “we’re in the fiat crisis”
All the centralization and opacity of fiat – it’s all blowing up
Will have wrenching transition to crypto economy

RSA: “fiat fire alarm that you’re pulling”, “the all at once moment”

Exact state of world in 90 days will be very different
Not bet on Bitcoin price but on falling value of US dollar

Today USD is no longer too big to fail – there’s RMB, there’s bitcoin

Financial engineering led to house of cards, “the money is gone”
If today, all depositors withdrew money, banks can’t liquidate assets to give them enough dollars

Time bomb was growing, regulators were aware of it

“Uncle Sam Bankman Fried”

Reality: Fed Reserve gave guidance to banks to buy certain assets that then dropped in value (due to rate hikes)
Fed gets lagging data, changes single parameter, highly political process
“Fed bankrupted the banks”

“There are 333 banks where the money is gone”
Also foreign banks who bought US treasuries – global Central Banks using emergency USD swap lines
These banks’ insolvency intentionally hidden in a footnote

Now the can can’t be kicked
Holding a flaming bag of dog poop
Every crisis powers them up – failures mean they get bigger – “more failure more funding”

Do you have an alternative regulator? Don’t you want one that will tell you if your money is still there?

New era, final era – can’t hike rates anymore – printing tons of money to give to banks through BTFP, swap lines
Initially said $25B injection, now it’s up to $2T, it will effectively be infinite

All the small banks, tech banks, will get wrecked
Big banks w/ Fed help positioned as saviors – “both arsonists and firefighter”
At end, will only have 4 giant banks in US, govt rolls out CBDC – now “too big to fail banks” become “too big to escape banks” – government now has control

On other side of this – bitcoin is gold, ethereum is the financial system
Lot of people will be converted overnight into bitcoin maximalism, will be bitcoin jurisdictions

Bitcoin is ONLY thing that Fed does not directly or indirectly administer
Tradfi – Fed has root access – can stop or delist any financial product (except bitcoin / crypto)
One honest signal that they can’t fully fake is Bitcoin – which is an expression of peoples’ desire to exit the (existing financial) system
Thus Operation Chokepoint / fog of war – kill the crypto connected banks like Signature, Silvergate

Lot of fiat banks will go to zero, or become like fiat flytraps

2008 Financial crisis
Rest of world paid for it through inflation, food price spikes
Democrats effectively taxed Republicans, and foreign dollar holders, to pay for the bailout
“Cost was shunted to the invisible”

Foundational macro view is a little inflation is good, deflation is very bad
Bitcoin’s view is deflation is good if caused by Moore’s Law (technology making things cheaper), even a little inflation is bad
American Keynesianism is bad, just like Soviet economics, but it’s just less bad

David: “Bitcoin during times of war, Ethereum during times of peace”

Bitcoin will be protected by enough governments, bitcoin is well understood

“Final digital devaluation of the dollar is coming”

This is not the make money time – everyone will be a lot poorer soon
“America is new Argentina” is not a bad mental model
Dollar holder is bag holder

Many countries (like India) will become gold backed after this

David: Ray Dalio’s macro cycles, 4th turning, all lining up
There are only two banks – Fed Reserve, and Bitcoin

Bitcoin is Schelling point

Hyperbitcoinization is collapse of all fiat currencies against bitcoin
Speed of transition will be shocking, even to Bitcoin maximalists
Most empire transitions happen gradually – eg, Britain > America
Internet is next America

Powell has turned America into Argentina
People will learn you can’t trust the state

Important to understand severity of situation, take calm conscious steps to insure yourself against it
Americans are running old scripts – Powell is doing 80s formula of Volcker hiking rates

Lot of countries that trusted Fed – holding a lot of Treasuries, US dollars – the money is gone

(US citizens) paid for all the regulation but got none of the protection

Hiding bank insolvency in a footnote – it’s a corrupt regime, it’s a betrayal

Russia and China will be unleashed
Taiwan could be captured without a shot

Two Degens crypto podcast – latest episode with Steven from PressStart Capital

Hi, I’ve been recording podcast episodes 1-2x a week with my cohost George (crypto OG, started WeTrust and CitaDAO), and in the latest episode we invited our friend Steven to discuss web3 gaming, state of the market, AI, and a grab bag of miscellany.

Podcast website is here.

Do have a listen:

Let me know what you think. Still a long way to go to improve our comfort level and my skills as a moderator (which is totally the opposite of my ADD-ness), but we’re enjoying it and we have a lot planned!

Podcast notes – Solana with founder Anatoly Yakovenko – Bankless: $20M valuation for Solana at seed round “was ludicrous”

Guest: Anatoly Yakovenko, Solana founder
Hosts: Ryan Sean Adams and David Hoffman

2017 – was following crypto, wanted to build a faster crypto miner
Family left Soviet Union, saw the devastation of a bad currency and economy

Ethereum demonstrated an application platform

Qualcomm, Perl engineer who helped build platform for all those original mobile games

Mining crypto while building deep learning hardware
Had a eureka moment – encode passage of time as a data structure
At that time, it existed as a “verifiable delay function”
Quit job, met Raj Gokal
Raised $3M in seed, network price at that time was $20M – “thought it was ludicrous” – included Multicoin
5 cofounders, colleagues from Qualcomm
Built single node – was doing 100K+ TPS – prove potential of network
Raised $14M Series A in the “last vapors” of the 2017-2018 market
Competitors during that time were raising $100M+ (eg, Hashgraph)

Censorship resistance is like a communication channel – it guarantees delivery

Wireless protocols create a schedule – from X time to Y time, A gets to talk, then B gets to talk, etc
Very ordered and structured, gets you 100% utilization

Tendermint – 100 validators – each has 1 vote, there’s a known block producer who proposes a block, 2/3 vote on a block

Hired a lot of coworkers from Qualcomm who he worked with for 10 years

Solana thesis – smart contracts are good for finance, and finance depends on info propagating as fast as possible around the world
Solana data can move as fast as a piece of news travels

Currently ETH validators have same bandwidth requirements
With sharding the requirements will be reduced

Trustlessness comes from full nodes that can validate

Bitcoin and Ethereum see themselves as money – what about Solana?
Store of Value is a social construct, a meme, and important not to be tied to a sovereign (a nation)
The function of a token is to prevent spam

In PoS, once all full nodes have finalized, you can’t go back – you can only fork – which is a socially messy process

Store of Value that is awesome can be built on Solana, that can surpass bitcoin

How to bootstrap an ecosystem without piggybacking off Ethereum – was a huge unknown when Solana started

2020 – had 9-10 months of cash left, market crashed, thought they might be done

It was Solana’s second hackathon (Break Point) where he really believed they had something
Quality of builders went up, attendees went up

Solana was worth ~$100M at network launch

Thinks VC branding is dumb – most of the “crypto VCs” in last cycle were simply Ethereum ICO investors

Alameda’s balance sheet leak was first time Anatoly learned about the troubles

Sam had supported Solana a lot – especially saying they’d build Serum on Solana drove a lot of defi and builder interest

Bear market is a purge

Bitcoin supporters said Ethereum was full of mercenaries in early days — same criticism that Ethereum supporters had of Solana

“Getting through this phase sucks for sure”

NFT community is very thriving — second to Ethereum – very proud of it

Exhausted by negative news — want to see wins, see people building cool shit

David: Solana is one of only blockchains after Ethereum that has a second client (Firedancer + Jump)
Anatoly: you’re trading liveness for safety; Ethereum’s goal is 4 clients (can maintain liveness if 1 client goes down)

Still focused on monolithic chain with no sharding

Innovation in next 12-18 mos will probably be more than everything that’s come before in crypto

“Pretty sure” Solana can do more TPS than all ETH L2s combined