Category: Short-Term Goals

I start a lot of books these days but quit somewhere in the first act. But I finished Jeff’s new book The Price of Tomorrow in a relatively frenzied week, because he makes a compelling argument and writes in an easy manner. The book has provided me a framework to analyze and understand a critical topic (the global economy) — the ideal outcome of a great nonfiction book. Other books which have yielded similar outcomes include The Power of Habit and Alain de Botton’s writings, specifically Religion for Atheists.

I’m also reading Albert Wenger’s book in progress, World After Capital, which diagnoses the same problem (an excess of capital driving inequality and decreasing productivity growth and perverting economic incentives), but proposes a different set of solutions.

Good stuff.

Here are my highlights from Jeff’s book:

• With digital technologies we have universal machines at zero marginal cost. All of a sudden the idea that we might be like horses, and have fewer and fewer uses, doesn’t seem quite so impossible.
• Yes we humans can be incredibly creative and think of new things to spend our time on. But the operative question for people selling their labor is not if they can think of something to do, but if they can get paid for it. Not just get paid something, but enough to cover all of one’s basic needs.
• As my friend Thuan Pham, the chief technology officer of Uber, recently said to me over breakfast, “I am a firm believer that talent is distributed evenly around the world, but opportunities are not.”>
• The only thing driving growth in the world today is easy credit, which is being created at a pace that is hard to comprehend.
• in the United States, the top 5 percent of the population now holds more than two-thirds of the wealth, while the remaining 95 percent of the population fights for their share of the other third. Just three people—Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Warren Buffett—account for more wealth than 50 percent of the population.
• Deflation, put simply, is when you get more for your money—just as inflation is when you get less for your money.
• In 2000, the total debt in the world was approximately US$62 trillion. At the same time, the world economy in 2000 was about US$33.5 trillion. Since 2000, the world economy has grown from US$33.5 trillion to about US$80 trillion, but to achieve that growth, the total debt has grown to over US$247 trillion as of the third quarter of 2018, according to the Institute of International Finance. In other words, it has taken approximately $185 trillion of global debt to achieve $46 trillion of global growth.
• But when a business continues to spend more than it earns, or invests its debt in things that do not provide an economic return, the debt becomes a weight on future growth as current dollars need to be allocated to pay the servicing cost of the interest or payments.
• Dalio concludes that in the end, “Policy makers always print. That is because austerity causes more pain than benefit, big restructurings wipe out too much wealth too fast, and transfers of wealth from haves to have nots don’t happen in sufficient size without revolution.”
• Owners of assets and those who have access to debt and leverage have been tremendous winners. So have technology companies that are using it to create monopolies
• As the theorist Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes in Antifragile, “we notice what varies and changes more than what plays a larger role but doesn’t change. We rely more on water than on cell phones, but because water does not change and cell phones do, we are prone to thinking that cell phones play a larger role than they do.”
• Flanders notes that the United States actually used to regulate where spitting was allowed on trains, stations, and on platforms. A 1917 conference of boards of health, held in Washington, D.C., mandates that “an adequate supply of cuspidors shall be provided” in train cars. Today, both the word “cuspidor” (meaning spittoon) and the object have virtually vanished (though Supreme Court Justices still get one). Its disappearance is not because some technology went obsolete. It is because our behavior has changed.
• Deflation is being caused by technology and, because of that, it will ride the same exponential wave that technology does. That means that the rate of deflation (without printing more money) will only accelerate from here.
• And when culture does change, the precipitating events can be surprisingly random and small. As the writer Charles Duhigg describes in The Power of Habit, one of the landmark events in the evolution of gay rights in the U.S. was a change, by the Library of Congress, from classifying books about the gay movement as “Abnormal Sexual Relations, Including Sexual Crimes,” to “Homosexuality, Lesbianism—Gay Liberation, Homophile Movement.”
• Consumer spending or personal consumption (C) Investments (I) Net exports (X) Government spending (G) The mathematical formula to calculate the components of GDP (Y) is simple: Y = C + I + X + G.
• We should ask whether those same assets would have gone up over the last twenty years if there hadn’t been $185 trillion of new capital injected into economies over that time. When that stops, which it eventually will, things will change very quickly.
• By nature, though, quantitative easing also causes currency devaluation, even if that’s not what it’s specifically intended to do. The government doesn’t actually have more assets; it’s just representing its assets with more units of currency, which means each unit of currency is worth less—like cutting a pizza into twelve slices instead of eight, or dividing an estate between ten heirs rather than nine.

A reader recently asked for the template that I use to fill-out the checklist. Here it is. A simple Google sheet.

The only difference between the template and the custom checklist I regularly use is that I added an “optional habits” section below (which isn’t shown in the image above), with activities like taking a nap, making my bed, writing a daily journal. I track those activities, but many of them are almost automatic (like making my bed), so I don’t give them the same priority / value.

In week 5, you’ll notice a 3-day gap where I really failed at the habits. I was in Hanoi for work / meetings. Once again, the realization that travel can be hugely disruptive to habits. Just about tradeoffs.

Thanks for following along. Look forward to hearing from you. Good luck with your habits!

Alan Watts’s The Wisdom of Insecurity.

I came upon the book in a Twitter thread – the source eludes me now, or I’d give credit.

His writing style is so crisp and dense that it will take many re-reads to better grasp what he’s saying, but even the first pass was great.

Here are some of my favorite highlights:

• When belief in the eternal becomes impossible, and there is only the poor substitute of belief in believing, men seek their happiness in the joys of time. However much they may try to bury it in the depths of their minds, they are well aware that these joys are both uncertain and brief.
• Consequently our age is one of frustration, anxiety, agitation, and addiction to “dope.” Somehow we must grab what we can while we can, and drown out the realization that the whole thing is futile and meaningless. This “dope” we call our high standard of living, a violent and complex stimulation of the senses, which makes them progressively less sensitive and thus in need of yet more violent stimulation.
• The common error of ordinary religious practice is to mistake the symbol for the reality, to look at the finger pointing the way and then to suck it for comfort rather than follow it.
• As far as we can judge, every animal is so busy with what he is doing at the moment that it never enters his head to ask whether life has a meaning or a future.
• If, then, we are to be fully human and fully alive and aware, it seems that we must be willing to suffer for our pleasures.
• For the animal to be happy it is enough that this moment be enjoyable. But man is hardly satisfied with this at all. He is much more concerned to have enjoyable memories and expectations — especially the latter. With these assured, he can put up with an extremely miserable present. Without this assurance, he can be extremely miserable in the midst of immediate physical pleasure.
• The power of memories and expectations is such that for most human beings the past and the future are not as real, but more real than the present. The present cannot be lived happily unless the past has been “cleared up” and the future is bright with promise.
• For the machine can submit to strains far beyond the capacity of the body, and to monotonous rhythms which the human being could never stand. Useful as it would be as a tool and a servant, we worship its rationality, its efficiency, and its power to abolish limitations of time and space, and thus permit it to regulate our lives.
• If I want to be secure, that is, protected from the flux of life, I am wanting to be separate from life. Yet it is this very sense of separateness which makes me feel insecure. To be secure means to isolate and fortify the “I,” but it is just the feeling of being an isolated “I” which makes me feel lonely and afraid. In other words, the more security I can get, the more I shall want.
• Herein lies the crux of the matter. To stand face to face with insecurity is still not to understand it. To understand it, you must not face it but be it.
• To understand music, you must listen to it. But so long as you are thinking, “I am listening to this music,” you are not listening. To understand joy or fear, you must be wholly and undividedly aware of it. So long as you are calling it names and saying, “I am happy,” or “I am afraid,” you are not being aware of it.
• In moments of great joy we do not, as a rule, stop to think, “I am happy,” or, “This is joy.” Ordinarily, we do not pause to think thoughts of this kind until the joy is past its peak, or unless there is some anxiety that it will go away.
• Every experience is in this sense new, and at every moment of our lives we are in the midst of the new and the unknown.
• Wanting to get out of pain is the pain; it is not the “reaction” of an “I” distinct from the pain. When you discover this, the desire to escape “merges” into the pain itself and vanishes.
• In the widest sense of the word, to name is to interpret experience by the past, to translate it into terms of memory, to bind the unknown into the system of the known. Civilized man knows of hardly any other way of understanding things. Everybody, everything, has to have its label, its number, certificate, registration, classification.
• For all the qualities which we admire or loathe in the world around us are reflections from within—though from a within that is also a beyond, unconscious, vast, unknown.
• Philosophers, for example, often fail to recognize that their remarks about the universe apply also to themselves and their remarks. If the universe is meaningless, so is the statement that it is so. If this world is a vicious trap, so is its accuser, and the pot is calling the kettle black.
• Obviously, it all exists for this moment. It is a dance, and when you are dancing you are not intent on getting somewhere.
• Death is the epitome of the truth that in each moment we are thrust into the unknown.
• Morals are for avoiding an unfair distribution of pleasure and pain.
• The “natural” man lives for one motive: to protect his body from pain and to associate it with pleasure.
• One of the highest pleasures is to be more or less unconscious of one’s own existence, to be absorbed in interesting sights, sounds, places, and people. Conversely, one of the greatest pains is to be self-conscious, to feel unabsorbed and cut off from the community and the surrounding world.
• But the best pleasures are those for which we do not plan, and the worst part of pain is expecting it and trying to get away from it when it has come. You cannot plan to be happy.
• For the more my actions are directed towards future pleasures, the more I am incapable of enjoying any pleasures at all. For all pleasures are present, and nothing save complete awareness of the present can even begin to guarantee future happiness.
• I am depressed, and want to get “I” out of this depression. The opposite of depression is elation, but because depression is not elation, I cannot force myself to be elated. I can, however, get drunk. This makes me wonderfully elated, and so when the next depression arrives, I have a quick cure. The subsequent depressions have a way of getting deeper and blacker, because I am not digesting the depressed state and eliminating its poisons. So I need to get even drunker to drown them. Very soon I begin to hate myself for getting so drunk, which makes me still more depressed—and so it goes.
• The Christian mind has always been haunted by the feeling that the sins of the saints are worse than the sins of the sinners
• The “saint” who appears to have conquered his self-love by spiritual violence has only concealed it. His apparent success convinces others that he has found the “true way,” and they follow his example long enough for the course to swing to its opposite pole, when license becomes the inevitable reaction to puritanism.
• There is no problem of how to love. We love. We are love, and the only problem is the direction of love, whether it is to go straight out like sunlight, or to try to turn back on itself like a “candle under a bushel.”
• Everyone has love, but it can only come out when he is convinced of the impossibility and the frustration of trying to love himself. […] It comes only in the awareness that one has no self to love.
• It is obvious that the only interesting people are interested people, and to be completely interested is to have forgotten about “I.”
• The highest to which man can attain is wonder; and if the prime phenomenon makes him wonder, let him be content; nothing higher can it give him, and nothing further should he seek for behind it; here is the limit.

You can find the book on Kindle here.