Recent startup, tech, AI, crypto learnings: “The surest sign of a midcurved institution is its insistence on an ability to control, predict, and dictate to complex adaptive systems”

19/ I have 0 insight if/when Indian policies change but honestly feel like the fact that the most populous country on earth has banned crypto is not discussed enough
Utterly massive opportunity when/if this changes

With a simple meme, you can make millions of people laugh all over the world. I can tweet a joke that gets 15 million views, and I can do it from my toilet. That’s scale. And as every good entrepreneur knows, wherever there’s scale, there’s a chance to turn a massive profit.
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If there were one rule to unite all memelords, it would be this: capitalize on the current thing.

Mr. Beast —
Anytime we do something that no other creator can do, that seperates us in their mind and makes our videos more special to them. It changes how they see us and it does make them watch more videos and engage more with the brand. You can’t track the “wow factor” but I can describe it. Anything that no other youtuber can do. And it’s important we never lose our wow.
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Let’s say we have 10 minute video about a guy surviving weeks in the woods. Instead of making the first 3 minutes of the video about his first day then progressing from there like a logical filmmaker would. We’d tried to cover multiple days in the first 3 minutes of the video so the viewer is now super invested in the story.
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But in general once you have someone for 6 minutes they are super invested in the story and probably in what I call a “lull”. They are watching the video without even realizing they are watching a video.

There were days back in the early 2000s when you would have no idea what to expect from a Bernanke or Greenspan-led Fed. The FOMC meetings were actually quite riveting because you simply had no idea what to expect. But not the Powell-led Fed. They often explicitly tell you what they will do, but in rare cases when they don’t, they leak it to their favorite Wall Street Journal puppet, Nick Timiraos, who spells it out for you.
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Lest you think I’m being unfair to our ivory-tower friends, here’s the lore of the term “capitalism”: borne from a socialist French intellectual and popularized by Marx. Lol. Yeah. The guys who don’t like the natural system, named the natural system something that’s kinda pejorative.

I want you to help me build a media empire, where we make (formerly) obscure scholars famous, compile the real time history of ASI, and produce the very best intellectual content in the world.

Content, confidence, and context—these are the three dimensions Shreyas Doshi discovered traditional companies use to promote employees. “This is unfortunately the cause of a lot [of] persistent frustration for otherwise-talented people who are GREAT at content, but repeatedly get passed over for promotion to higher levels… it is usually because they are not projecting as much confidence as they ought to for the next level and they are not as attuned to the context of the org & the company.”

Their SwiftNet private key infrastructure and banking messaging standards like ISO20022 are used by 11,000+ banks globally to facilitate the communication of payment instructions between banks

On Mr. Beast as Buzzfeed 2.0
(he can only sell very generic products like chocolate because his audience is so poor and so broad) — and he is in the most competitive part of the ecosystem / general entertainment.

The best ideas come as jokes. Make your thinking as funny as possible.
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Do not address your readers as though they were gathered together in a stadium. When people read your copy, they are alone.

This “secret privatization” of the entire North Korean economy has been incredibly thorough. It’s estimated that around 80 percent of all goods and services in North Korea are provided in secret and in shadow. It’s capitalism as an extremophile species of lichen, colonizing the cracks and crevices of the official society, and keeping the whole system afloat.

“The concern was that 200 phones traveling at 800 kilometers per hour in a plane could rapidly connect to many towers at once, overloading the infrastructure. At least that’s what the FCC thought could happen. So, they banned cell phone use in flight in 1991. But there’s a problem with this theory—a plane is a big metal enclosure, essentially a Faraday cage. So, it should block almost all electromagnetic signals.”

After analyzing value spread throughout his career, AQR Capital cofounder concludes that markets are becoming less informationally efficient. “You’d be forgiven if, like me, your initial whiggish assumption is that markets would get more efficient over time. After all, over the last 20-40 years the ubiquity and speed of available information has continuously grown, and at the same time trading costs have come rapidly down. But like me initially, you’d be mistaking speed for accuracy.”

In the 1950s alone, America built five generations of fighter jets, three generations of manned bombers, two classes of aircraft carriers, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and nuclear-powered attack submarines.

In 2020/21, very loose monetary conditions + huge money printing combined with two major breakout innovations DeFi & NFTs. People were given stimmies, fiat was massively devalued again, and the prospect of decentralized finance being the genuine future of finance, alongside NFTs being the future of digital property caused enormous retail participation.

“Your highly questionable parenting vision,” responded Nicole, who was a day away from labor. “One, no school or college. Two, separate apartment in childhood. Three, move out at 16. Four, learn to drive all machines as early as possible. Five, leave the family fortune to one child. Six, children have to fly in economy while we are in business.” Luckey also believes strongly in (legally obtained) child labor (permits), that having fewer than 2.1 children would make him a traitor to the nation, and that children as young as 2 are fully capable of walking several miles without a stroller (“History shows it,” he says).
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“At some point, in business and in life and in romance, you have to commit to a path,” said the 31-year-old Luckey. “A lot of my peers in the tech industry do not share this philosophy … They’re always pursuing everything with optionality.

By 2023, the cold war between these tribes had escalated into open conflict as hedge fund billionaires led the charge to oust Ivy League presidents and The New York Times sued OpenAI. Incursions into enemy territory are treated with alarm, like when Google’s AI model Gemini was criticized by Riverians for reflecting distinctively Villagey political attitudes.
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Villagers see themselves as being clearly right on the most important big-picture questions of the day, from climate change to gay and trans rights. So they view the Riverian inclination to poke holes in arguments and “just ask questions’’ as being a waste of time at best, and as potentially empowering a wake of bad-faith actors and bigots.

Bitcoin is worth a trillion bucks and half of Wall Street owns it at this point. All the rest of crypto is worth another trillion. Tether owns more Treasuries than Germany. There’s been more than $20bn of venture capital poured into this space in the last four years. We’re not that early.

The surest sign of a midcurved institution is its insistence on an ability to control, predict, and dictate to complex adaptive systems. You don’t control them, they control you.

Envision interest rates as futures for dollars.
Interest rates = price of money

I trust GPT4 more than I trust our politicians. In the coming years AI models will become so much more capable that their judgment will start being used to mediate disputes – first inside companies but then legally . Lawyers already use it constantly.
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China was The State.
Crypto was The Individual.
It’s the Machine that will overthrow the plutocracy, because the core of the plutocracy – its super bubble was the false insistence it was a machine.

Wisdom patterns #1: OBSESSIONS WIN

Like the giant nerd I am, I have been trying to find the shared patterns and common principles among the many quotes and excerpts I’ve collected. I’ve managed to create a list of 20 or so, so called wisdom patterns, and I’ll steadily share them here when I’m feeling inspired to write which is not often.

Starting with what I consider the most powerful pattern, which summates to something like “Obsessions win”.

Alternate names I had for this pattern include “Go very deep” and “the power of focus”.

All quotes below are taken verbatim, all mistakes mine.

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Wisdom principle #1 — OBSESSIONS WIN:

One thing that distinguishes the persistent is their energy. At the risk of putting too much weight on words, they persist rather than merely resisting. They keep trying things. Which means the persistent must also be imaginative. To keep trying things, you have to keep thinking of things to try. – Paul Graham

Van Gogh didn’t say: Thats just an old chair. He looked, and looked, and looked. He sensed the Beingness of the chair. Then he sat in front of the canvas and took up the brush. – Eckhart Tolle

“It’s tough to be good at something you’re not interested in. It’s nearly impossible to be great at something you’re not obsessed with.” – Shane Parrish

that money and time are the heaviest burthens of life, and that the unhappiest of all mortals are those who have more of either than they know how to use. – Samuel Johnson

For Nietzsche, the Übermensch is a being who is able to completely affirm life: someone who says ‘yes’ to everything that comes their way; a being who is able to be their own determiner of value; sculpt their characteristics and circumstances into a beautiful, empowered, ecstatic whole; and fulfill their ultimate potential to become who they truly are.

“Trust your obsessions. […] You don’t always use your obsessions. Sometimes you stick them onto the compost heap in the back of your head, where the rot down, and attach to other things, and get half-forgotten, and will, one day, turn into something completely usable. Go where your obsessions take you. … Your obsessions may not always take you to commercial places, or apparently commercial places. But trust them.” — Neil Gaiman

A single-minded devotion to an idea can spur massive change (but this type of fanatical devotion can also backfire)

TS Eliot observed that “only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.”

We are strongly biased towards people who are so determined to succeed that they never give up, never quit. — pmarca

The most successful people i know didn’t work the hardest. They took the most risk. – @howard

Here’s how to live: Commit. – Derek Sivers

You can become the world’s best in something primarily by caring more about it than anyone else. – Kevin Kelly

Give yourself a lot of shots to get lucky’ is even better advice than it appears on the surface. Luck isn’t an independent variable but increases super-linearly with more surface area—you meet more people, make more connections between new ideas, learn patterns, etc. – Sam Altman

There are arguments that go in both ways but I’d say yes: it’s beneficial to build an obsession and compulsion with things you want to be better at. Especially if that thing is hard to do because you can overcome the difficulty with brute force

To understand music, you must listen to it. But so long as you are thinking, “I am listening to this music,” you are not listening. To understand joy or fear, you must be wholly and undividedly aware of it. So long as you are calling it names and saying, “I am happy,” or “I am afraid,” you are not being aware of it. – Alan Watts

When you let your mind wander, it wanders to whatever you care about most at that moment. So avoid the kind of distraction that pushes your work out of the top spot, or you’ll waste this valuable type of thinking on the distraction instead. (Exception: Don’t avoid love.) – PG

But when we are at our best, we’re not slogging through. Great people are obsessed and they’re not slogging through either. They are driven. They are motivated. They are deeply, deeply engaged

Once you make a decision, go all in.
Commit fully to your choices. Half-hearted efforts yield half-hearted results.
Indecision only leads to stagnation and missed opportunities.
Stay committed to your goals, even when faced with obstacles and setbacks. Perseverance is single-handedly the most important key to achieving a goals.
-Anil Lulla

“Peter Thiel used to insist at PayPal that every single person could only do exactly one thing. And we all rebelled. You feel like it’s insulting to be asked to do just one thing.
But Peter would enforce this pretty strictly. He’d basically say: ‘I will not talk to you about anything else except for this one thing that I’ve assigned to you. I don’t want to hear about how great you’re doing in this other area. Just focus until you conquer this one problem.’…
The insight behind this is that most people will solve problems that they understand how to solve. Roughly speaking, they will solve B+ problems instead of A+ problems. A+ problems are high-impact problems for your company but they’re difficult–you don’t wake up in the morning with a solution to them, so you tend to procrastinate…
If you have a company that’s always solving B+ problems, you’ll never create the breakthrough idea because no one is spending 100% of their time banging their head against the wall every day until they solve it” – Keith Rabois

Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go. – TS Eliot

Seinfeld: I’m never not working on material. Every second of my existence, I’m thinking, could I do something with that?
Howard Stern: That, to me, sounds torturous.
Seinfeld: Your blessing in life is when you find the torture you’re comfortable with

“Life punishes a vague wish and rewards a specific ask.” – Tim Ferriss

But the artist cannot look to others to validate his efforts or his calling. If you don’t believe me, ask Van Gogh, who produced masterpiece after masterpiece and never found a buyer in his whole life.

And in that flow, you find yourself doing things not purely for status, but because there’s something in them that’s more meaningful to you. As I’ve written before: “To become truly great at something, you need to be at least a little obsessed with that thing — enough to get lost in the joy of doing it, not the allure of what it could get you.” – Anu Atluru

I see a lot of people with talent but the one thing they don’t have is that just love of doing it for the sake of it. — Rodney Mullen

Since I was 13, there probably hasn’t been a single hour that’s gone by that I’ve been awake where I haven’t thought about YouTube – Mr. Beast

I knew from the age of 13 that this is what I was gonna do until the day I died – Mr. Beast

Obsessions tend to win. Whether sports, a startup, a community, or a movement. Those who are obsessed will almost always, with enough time, beat those who are not

Find what you love and let it kill you – Bukowski

The only thing that will make you happy is to set a goal, then kill yourself to achieve it. I have a theory that the elation you feel is directly proportional to the sacrifices you make. – Dr. Nicholas of Broadcom

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Next wisdom pattern will be “Do it now.”

This tweet and this blog: “In a post truth world pay attention to the men proximate to the money printers”

The tweet, copying a few bits: https://x.com/goodalexander/status/1825296389317775501

Thus Bloomberg’s monopoly is not a tech monopoly. Its software is mediocre. It is an access monopoly, which is a direct side effect of the great ongoing state-corporate merger that’s hyper-accelerated since the late 1980s.Politics is – of course, at the center of a political economy. And it pays to be on the side of the aisle that gives you the best access (which is the left wing).

This similarly explains why George Soros became a left-wing meme lord post 1993. His capital base simply got too big and the only way to move size was in government markets. Cryptocurrency is inherently a right wing asset class because it’s constantly noting the elephant in the room (that there’s too much debt, and it won’t ever be paid back). As such, it cripples itself in terms of institutional adoption so it’s a bit of a miracle that there are even ETFs.

Everyone has convinced themselves there’s a ton of election risk regarding cryptocurrency. But — because Bloomberg, Soros, Blackrock and the left wing consortium are on the forefront of ‘institutional adoption’ – I simply don’t think that’s the case. Not for BTC, and not for ETH.

In a post truth world pay attention to the men proximate to the money printers. Assume they are acting on marching orders that are somewhat consistent. Buy crypto because you’re allowed to. Keep your Bloomberg terminal so you can buy more intraday when they invent a crisis to start easing.

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…and his blog is great too! https://goodalexander.com/

Recent startup, tech, AI, crypto learnings: “Perspective has an expiration date, no matter how hard you try to hold on to it.”

Deng Xiaoping and Robert Moses using the same strategy:
Don’t ask for permission, don’t argue, just do it and if you move fast and execute well they’ll either come to agree or, with things already half built, accept with no other choice.

Smart contract systems have proven product market fit and have dramatically increased in security and safety in recent years. They are now able to secure ~$100 billion on public networks with nation state bad actors attacking them daily. This level of security and programmability beats any existing electronic trading network.

Over a quarter century later, handling outliers is still the Achilles’ Heel of neural networks. (Nowadays people often refer to this as the problem of distribution shift.)
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(This is also why we still use calculators rather than giant, expensive, yet still fallible LLMs, for arithmetic. LLMs often stumble on large multiplication problems because such problems are effectively outliers relative to a training set that can’t sample them all; the symbolic algorithms in calculators are suitably abstract, and never falter. It’s also why still use databases, spreadsheets, and word processors, rather than generative AI for so many tasks that require precision.)

This is bullshitization, a process like financialization or enshittification. A derivative phenomenon that amplifies the underlying bullshit instead of attenuating it.

the Ministry of Finance, working with the central bank, spent 9T Yen, or around $55B USD, in currency interventions between these two moves. Recall that they have around $100B USD in liquid cash and $1T USD in Treasury bonds, both of which could be used theoretically to defend their currency

However, if you’ve ever been a manager, you know that a “good” direct report is able to magically transform your vague idea into a really great outcome. You can say, “find me a stock to invest in,” and a good employee will come back with something dazzling. The less time you have to spend specifying what you are looking for, the more valuable that employee becomes

The Plaza Accord was an unprecedented (now rarely mentioned) weaponization of the dollar by the US to dethrone Japan’s economic leadership – via USD depreciation. This is where the now widely popularized “Carry Trade” was bourn, compounded by a series of mistakes by the BoJ, and how the social contract between the two countries were forever set in stone as America willed: “you fund our debt for life, and we will give you military protection given you still need to repent for the sins of WWII”. The Japanese agreed.

“When you have a disruptive technology, they call it a category killer. Bitcoin is a serial killer – it’s going to go through 40 or 50 different industries” – Dan Morehead

When Nixon closed the gold window, the US had a debt-to-GDP ratio of 35%, West Germany was at 18%, and Japan was 10%.
Today the US is at 135%, the Eurozone’s at 91%, and Japan’s above 260%.

However, because this configuration bug hit very widely distributed software running in kernelspace almost universally across machines used by the workforce of lynchpin institutions throughout society (most relevantly to this column, banks, but also airlines, etc etc), it had a blast radius much, much larger than typical configuration bugs.

Like Americans in general, American Bitcoiners can be found across the political spectrum— but they tend to be moderates. Bitcoin owners tend to be younger and male, but are otherwise diverse. When it comes to race, ethnicity, income, education, and financial literacy, Bitcoin owners look much like the rest of the U.S. population.

“I’ve just become president of PepsiCo, and you couldn’t just stop and listen to my news,” I said, loudly. “You just wanted me to go get the milk!” “Listen to me,” my mother replied. “You may be the president or whatever of PepsiCo, but when you come home, you are a wife and a mother and a daughter. Nobody can take your place. “So you leave that crown in the garage.”

BIS had been created by the world’s leading central banks to administer German reparations payments after World War I, but it soon took on a life of its own, transforming itself into a pillar of the emerging global financial system.

On Putin:
Lyudmila did not know he worked for the KGB. He had told her, too, that he worked for the criminal investigations branch of the Ministry of the Interior. It was a common cover for intelligence agents, and he had even been issued a false identification card.

“In reality, it’s inevitable that overseas AI companies see Japan as a paradise for copyright violation and machine learning since unauthorised learning is continuing no matter how much illustrators are being hurt by generative AI.”

After Alexander proved the effectiveness of the Macedonian phalanx, it spread throughout the Hellenistic world and became the default military formation for centuries.
It only had one weakness…
When Rome invaded Macedon in 214 BC, they exploited the Macedonian army’s inability to maneuver while in formation and devastated their flanks and rear.

As Guidara went through these trying times, his father encouraged him to maintain a journal of his thoughts. Frank said: “Perspective has an expiration date, no matter how hard you try to hold on to it.”

Less than twenty years after the Perry expedition, Japan had upgraded from junks to steam-powered destroyers. In 1894–95, Japan easily trounced the Chinese up and down the East Asian coast in the Sino-Japanese War. In 1904–5, Japan conquered all of Korea while also sinking the entirety of both Russian fleets in the Russo-Japanese War.

That $175.3T lines up with the ~$200T number that Druckenmiller has been using for the all-in liabilities of the US government when you take everything into account.
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More than defense, or social security, or anything else. The number one thing all tax dollars (and printed dollars) now go towards as of 2024 are payments to bondholders.

One of my formative experiences has been building our services constrained by what Apple will let us build on their platforms. Between the way they tax developers, the arbitrary rules they apply, and all the product innovations they block from shipping, it’s clear that Meta and many other companies would be freed up to build much better services for people if we could build the best versions of our products and competitors were not able to constrain what we could build. On a philosophical level, this is a major reason why I believe so strongly in building open ecosystems in AI and AR/VR for the next generation of computing.

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“Italians over the age of 100 are concentrated into the poorest, most remote and shortest-lived provinces, while US supercentenarians are concentrated into populations with incomplete vital registries…”
5/n
“Both patterns are difficult to explain through biology, but are readily explained as economic drivers of pension fraud and reporting error.”

For example, Okinawa has the highest number of centenarians per capita of any Japanese prefecture and remains world-famous for remarkable longevity.”
7/n
”Okinawa also has the highest murder rate per capita, the worst over-65 dependency ratio, the second-lowest median income, and the lowest median lifespan of all 47 Japanese prefectures”

“Surveying the ‘blue zone’ of Ikaria, Chrysohoou et al. observed that the oldest-old have: a below-median wage in over 95-98% of cases, moderate to high alcohol consumption, a 10% illiteracy rate, an average 7.4 years of education, & a 99% rate of smoking in men”
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By the time Vladimir joined, the KGB had grown into a vast bureaucracy that oversaw not only domestic and foreign intelligence matters, but also counterintelligence at home and abroad, military counterintelligence, enforcement of the border and customs, and physical protection of the political leadership and government facilities like the country’s nuclear sites. There were directorates that oversaw communications and cryptography, and that monitored telephone calls. The Sixth Directorate monitored “economic security” by policing speculation, currency exchanges, and other signs of deviant free-market activity. The Fifth Chief Directorate, created in 1969 to “protect” the Constitution, enforced party loyalty and harassed dissidents in all walks of life. The KGB was more than just a security agency; it was a state within the state,

Under Trong’s watch, the Politburo of the Communist Party, the country’s highest decision-making body, boasted an unprecedented large number of members with military and security background. Of its current 14 members, there are 5 with background in the security and police /7
forces and 3 with background in the military. As the Ministry of Public Security was the anti-corruption campaign’s key enforcers, its leader (now President To Lam) has become Trong’s most likely successor.
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Under Trong’s leadership, Vietnam upgraded its ties with South Korea, the United States, Japan, and Australia to /11
“comprehensive strategic partnerships,” while also joining China’s “community with a shared future (a.k.a. “community of common destiny”). This was a great feat in a growingly divided region, as Vietnam now stands out as the only comprehensive strategic partner of all major /12
powers in the Indo-Pacific.

Here’s the last one.

Playing video games (Stardew Valley!)

Recently I started playing video games consistently for the first time in a decade plus. I’ve found it to be a good mental workout — especially when starting a fresh game and all the controls / rules are new and must be learned quickly — and of course it’s fun to go back and play all kinds of bucket list games.

So far I’ve played bits of:
-Kingdom Rush (tower defense game)
-GTA San Andreas (action adventure open world)
-Stardew Valley (indie farming sim)

My favorite among the bunch is Stardew Valley. Simply incredible that it’s designed by one person over many hardcore years of grind and struggle, he composed and performed the music, conceptualized and made the art, the code, the logic, etc. Wow. Though farming games generally don’t appeal to me, the city building aspects, delving into the mines (more adventure + battle), all of collecting + hoarding + resource gathering, those parts are fun.

Next up I bought Sleeping Dogs — an action adventure with aspects of Yakuza and GTA, set in Hong Kong amidst the triads.

I also wanna play Witcher 3, Cyberpunk 2077, Rimworld, the list keeps growing. Truly a golden age for gaming, every new decade brings better tech, better art, better production values, more variety… can’t wait to see what AI does for the whole category.