For the last few years, the anon crypto twitter account @redphonecrypto has published a year end deck that is part reflection, part forecast, part call to arms.
Here are some of my favorites (and notably, all the amazing art was generated by AI):
For the last few years, the anon crypto twitter account @redphonecrypto has published a year end deck that is part reflection, part forecast, part call to arms.
Here are some of my favorites (and notably, all the amazing art was generated by AI):
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https://tcg.mirror.xyz/CCtokn_XR9yqGhL3OIKM4u8IxaVO0V0fmRxH-G5yWs8
We hear a lot of conversation around “hooks” for crypto-native messaging, like permissionless social graphs, verification, and token-gating, but these are features of web3 messaging, not the core use of it. None of these features have made on-chain messaging competitive with Telegram or Signal, because convenience (almost) always wins over quality. The reason these messaging protocols will be more convenient is they will unlock a whole new recipient of the message: the protocol itself. We haven’t gotten there yet because currently, messaging is regarded as an end, but web3-native messaging is a means, not an end. It’s a byproduct of completing actions.
Interacting with the protocol is a fascinating idea, although I suppose that’s what we do when we search google, or call an uber…and now there’s “interacting with an algorithm” too when we use ChatGPT or Stable Diffusion…
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“Women are associated with sexual content, whereas men are associated with professional, career-related content in any important domain such as medicine, science, business, and so on,” Caliskan says.
I dunno, I kinda liked my new six pack
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His journey from hero of the save-the-planet wing of the Democratic Party to right-wing flag-bearer has been years in the making. It was seemingly provoked by a series of real or perceived attacks from his left flank—from unions such as the United Auto Workers, which hopes to organize Tesla workers; Covid-wary lawmakers in California who shut down Tesla’s factories during the early days of the pandemic; and labor-friendly leaders like President Joe Biden, who declines to mention Tesla in speeches about electric cars and talked about extending EV credits for only unionized automakers. When Musk feels ambushed, he lashes out.
Shakespearean psychodrama? Does the msm have a hard on for Mr. Musk or what
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https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/most-amazing-discoveries-2022
For the first time, biologists have observed a native species, a bobcat, raiding a python nest and eating its eggs. Later, when the bobcat returned to find the snake guarding its nest, the cat took a swipe at the reptile. “When you get interactions like this and see the native wildlife fighting back, it’s like a ray of sunshine for us,” says Ian Bartoszek, an ecologist with the Conservancy of Southwest Florida. “In 10 years of tracking snakes, I can count on one hand the number of observations” of native animals standing up to the reptiles.
Demonstrating per usual that the “real” world is an incredible place full of potential wonder and we haven’t yet understood 1% of 1% of it
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https://theupheaval.substack.com/p/a-prophecy-of-evil-tolkien-lewis
The process which, if not checked, will abolish Man goes on apace among Communists and Democrats no less than among Fascists. The methods may (at first) differ in brutality. But many a mild-eyed scientists in pince-nez, many a popular dramatist, many an amateur philosopher in our midst, means in the long run just the same as the Nazi rulers of Germany. Traditional values are to be ‘debunked’ and mankind to be cut into some fresh shape at will (which must, by hypothesis, be an arbitrary will) of some few lucky people…
I had to read this twice to understand its gist, which is something like, when we stopped worshipping something greater than ourselves (be it values or a deity), that left a power vacuum, and a small set of “experts” stepped in to tell us what to worship instead. And in writing that preceding sentence, I realize I still don’t really get it, and probably need to read it again
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Yifan went down the rabbit hole on the Kashin mine and the Tver-Moscow War, learning about battles, the personalities of aristocrats and engineers, and more history surrounding the forgotten mine. There were hundreds of related articles describing this obscure period of Slavic history in the dull, sometimes suggestive, tone of the online encyclopedia. It was only when he tried to go deeper that something started to seem off. […] Eventually, he realized that there was no such thing as the great silver mine of Kashin (which is an entirely real town in Tver Oblast, Russia). Yifan had uncovered one of the largest hoaxes in Wikipedia’s history.
Yes I am chaotic neutral, and yes I mostly find this entertaining and have more than a modicum of admiration for this high-school educated lady to weave such a George RR Martin-esque alternative history. What we humans are able to create when we truly enjoy the creating…
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https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/stranger-things-season-4-captions
Jeff T.: People really focused on “eldritch thrumming.” Eldritch is that sort of arcane, unknowable, vaguely threatening, otherworldly presence. I am going to reveal the depths of how nerdy I am — I apologize in advance — but it’s also the signature spell for a warlock in Dungeons & Dragons. It’s called eldritch blast. The lore of a warlock in Dungeons & Dragons is that they make the deal with an otherworldly power, whether it’s a demon or a powerful fairy lord. So I was like, “Oh, this is the perfect term for that sense of otherworldly power intruding into our world.”
Below are some podcasts that I’m really enjoying at the moment…
Here’s a page with my older podcast recommendations
And here’s a running list of podcast notes I’ve taken. The most recent is an Ezra Klein interview of Leah Garces about factory farming and meat production
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The Bitcoin Layer – a new-ish addition, I’m a regular reader of Nik’s newsletter, and the podcast offers a low-frills analysis of macro and specifically the US bond market, interest rates, and the Fed; he also tends to invite guests who are slightly less featured than the usual podcast-guest-circuit (eg, the Rogan-Friedman-Huberman axis, or the Ferriss-Rose-Vaynerchuk axis)
Scriptnotes – a long-time sub; swings back and forth between industry insider gossip and screenwriting 101; invites great guests (eg, recent episode with The Daniels)
Iced Coffee Hour – surprised by how much I enjoyed their chat with Tai Lopez, helped to humanize the guy behind his omnipresent Lambo and books; the show provides (me with) valuable insight into how a certain kind of Gen Z influencer / ambitious individual thinks
TWIML – been dipping more than a toe into the waters of AI and ML recently, and this podcast has frequent topical interviews that are the right mix of accessible and technical for me
My First Million – a guilty pleasure, but having been a steady subscriber since it’s early days, I now find that it relies a bit too much on Shaan and Sam’s personal stories (so after listening to eg, 10 episodes, it’ll start to feel like a family reunion where gregarious grandpa tells you about that one time he did X)
Bankless – comfort food for Ethereum fans, with occasional entrees of delicious deep dives, gotta appreciate Ryan + David’s chemistry
What Bitcoin Did – comfort food for Bitcoin fans; more philosophical as of late; always enjoy his Lyn Alden interviews; for me, it scratches a similar itch to Preston’s weekly Bitcoin interviews
Lex Fridman – in a class by itself; he’s the only interviewer who can bring world class guests (like this one w/ game designer Todd Howard) to spend 3 hours chatting about anything and everything; enhanced by Lex’s mix of patience and skeptical kindness
Guest: Leah Garces, president of Mercy for Animals
50 years ago, meat costs $7/lb, today chicken is $1.80/lb
“These prices are fake”
Chickens today grow much bigger, much faster, much cheaper
-Reach slaughter weight in 6 weeks time, 3x faster than before
-50K birds in one warehouse – lose any sense of individuality
-Used to be 2-5sf of space per bird, now 3/4sf per bird – wall to wall
Battery cages
-for laying hens to produce eggs
-6 to 10 birds in a barren wired cage, crowded, causes aggressive behaviors, peck each other
-solution: industry shears off beak tips to reduce damage
Fish numbers are hard to quantify because they’re reported in tons
Land animals – 80 BILLION in the world, 70 billion are chickens (90%)
America is highest meat consumer – per capita eats 27 animals per year
America produces / have access to – 225 pounds of meat per person per year
Numbers are growing – last year was highest number ever produced and consumed
Chickens today grow so big so fast that they collapse under their own weight – especially their breast muscle – can’t survive past 6 weeks old, have heart attacks, too metabolically taxed
Product of selective breeding just for breast muscle
Chickens in wild can live many years
The meat has more fat and protein content than before, white stripes in the meat which are literally disease markers as result of fast growth
Chicken warehouse / factory farms
-chickens are very immobile, plopped down
-lots of sores on body
–“marshmallow on toothpicks”
-often panting, taxed by weight / size
-very fragile
What % are raised industrial – globally it’s 90%; in America it’s 99%
A positive trend: 1/3 production of eggs is cage-free now, as result of pressure campaigns
-still an industrial setting (indoors, over crowded, given antibiotics)
-just not kept in cages anymore
Gestation crates for pigs
-source of bacon, sausage
-pregnant pigs kept in metal crate so small that pregnant pig can’t turn her body, can’t really lay down; bottom of cage is cold and wet with slatted floors for feces; after giving birth, kept in a slightly larger farrowing crate, essentially a breeding machine, piglets are taken away – and the cycle starts again
-the pigs scream when their babies are taken away
70% of medically imported antibiotics in US are used in animals
-necessary for these animals to survive, grow faster
-antibiotic resistance is growing; millions of future deaths will come from antibiotic resistant diseases
-to reduce antibiotics would require changing genetics of the animals
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Meat industry needs to internalize these external costs
-CDC tracks viruses of concern: most are things like avian flu, swine flu – spreading from birds and pigs
-zoonotic diseases (from animals -> humans)
-pigs are more closely related to us than chickens
Impact on climate change
-livestock farming – mostly cows emitting methane – 14.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions (could be underestimate, as high as 25%)
–half of world’s usable land is for agriculture, most for livestock
-1/3 of arable land is used just to raise crops to feed farm animals (eg, soy, maize)
-contributor to deforestation
-contributor to air pollution (chickens produce ammonia and dust particles to local area; pig waste is collected in a cesspool which is sprayed into the air / fields, usually in low-income areas)
eg, Eastern North Carolina – former slaves area, hog industry moved nearby, hog waste ends up on clothes, cars, houses, but don’t have power to fight back, “nobody’s gonna put this in San Francisco”
–Gulf of Mexico dead zone – fertilizer run off into Mississippi, then into Gulf of Mexico – a zone the size of Rhode Island where no sea life can exist, only some species near the surface – the bottom has no oxygen nor life
100x more land used to produce a calorie of meat than a calorie of vegetable
Why isn’t meat more expensive? What are the externalities?
-animal suffering
-climate change
-air pollution
-farmers – owe lots of debt, often in low income areas
for chickens, farmers collectively owe $5B+ in debt, held hostage by it
a chicken farmer is basically a babysitter
keeps chickens alive for 6 weeks, then company collects and pays them
a form of indentured servitude
What about tax payer / government subsidies?
-in 2011, government purchased $40M of extra chicken supply – tax dollars paying for over production
-during covid, gave $270M in pandemic assistance
–spent $40M for “de-population” of chickens and pigs – slaughtered right on farm, “ventilation shutdown”, gets too hot and the animals suffocate
-why does government / taxpayer dollars pay? The industry should pay
2011 – Prop 12 – banned production and sale of extreme close confinement of animals raised for meat – almost 70% of Californians voted in favor
Industry appealed, Supreme Court hearing the case, Biden supports industry / overturning Prop 12
Compassion is an infinite muscle – we can have direct impact on improving farm animals’ lives
What are some modest steps for improvement?
-internalizing industry costs thru regulation – pollution tax, improving factory conditions
-meat prices will rise, consumption will decline
3 recommended books from Leah
-Wastelands by Addison – Smithfield’s case in North Carolina
-Meatonomics
-Animal Machines – Ruth Harrison – catalyst for “Five Freedoms” for animal welfare
I’ve been thinking about the relationship between blockchains and AI lately. Both are emerging foundational technologies and I think it’s no accident they are both coming of age at the same time.
Multiple writers have already expressed this view:
AIs can be used to generate “deep fakes” while cryptographic techniques can be used to reliably authenticate things against such fakery. Flipping it around, crypto is a target-rich environment for scammers and hackers, and machine learning can be used to audit crypto code for vulnerabilities. I am convinced there is something deeper going on here. This reeks of real yin-yangery that extends to the roots of computing somehow
From Venkatesh Rao: https://studio.ribbonfarm.com/p/the-dawn-of-mediocre-computing
I think AI and Web3 are two sides of the same coin. As machines increasingly do the work that humans used to do, we will need tools to manage our identity and our humanity. Web3 is producing those tools and some of us are already using them to write, tweet/cast, make and collect art, and do a host of other things that machines can also do. Web3 will be the human place to do these things when machines start corrupting the traditional places we do/did these things.
From Fred Wilson: https://avc.com/2022/12/sign-everything/
In both writers’ examples, blockchain helps solve some of the problems that AI creates, and vice-versa. I’m reminded of Kevin Kelly who said, Each new technology creates more problems than it solves.
Blockchains and AI have a sort of weird and emergent technological symbiosis and I’m here for it.
So the brain flatulence below is just my way to think aloud, using the writing process to work through the question(s).
*Note: when I say “blockchain”, I include what Fred Wilson calls web3 and Venkatesh calls crypto; there are just a few canonical applications that we’re all familiar with (namely, bitcoin and ethereum); and when I say “AI”, I am thinking about the most popular machine learning models like GPT3 and Stable Diffusion
*Note also: I am just a humble user of these new and powerful AI tools, and can barely understand the abstract of a typical machine learning research paper; so part of the reason why I’m writing this is to find out where I’m wrong a la Cunningham’s law
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A blockchain is a tool for individual sovereignty; while an AI is a tool for individual creativity
A blockchain operates at maximum transparency; while an AI operates largely as a black box
A blockchain clearly shows the chain of ownership and history; while an AI… (does something like the opposite in the way it aggregates and melds and mutates as much data as possible?)
A blockchain is “trustless”, in the sense that what you see on-chain is the agreed upon “truth” of all its users; while an AI is (?), in the sense that what it generates is more or less unique to the specific prompt / question / user (and even this can change as the model is updated, or new data is added]
An AI is much easier to use than a blockchain
An AI can create vast quantities of content, very cheaply; while a (truly “decentralized”) blockchain is limited by scalability and cost
An AI is centralized (to a specific company, or model, or data set) in the sense that decision making rests with a team or company; while a blockchain is decentralized and decision making is distributed
A surprising user experience – as in, an unexpected but delightful output – is typically net positive for a user of AI, while seeing something happen on a blockchain that you don’t expect would generally be pretty bad (yes, of course there are airdrops)
Blockchains are a competitive threat to industries with a high degree of centralization (such as fiat currency issuance, and payment networks); AI is a competitive threat to many individual online workers (such as language translators, and freelance writers, and basic QA/QC employees)
Both blockchains and AI have multiple open source products that can be forked by developers
Both blockchains and AI are platforms upon which many other products and services can be built
Both blockchains and AI are technologies that exploded into the popular consciousness in the last 10 years
Both “blockchain” and “AI” are very broad suitcase words, in part because they are both the product of many technologies combined in innovative ways: for blockchain that is everything from cryptography to smart contract programming to PoW mining to distributed consensus mechanisms; for AI that’s, uh…well everything listed here and more, I suppose
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I’ll end here for now, but let me know what I got wrong, what I’m missing, and what questions or ideas this might inspire
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Addendum #1: I asked ChatGPT
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Addendum #2: This NYT article notes that SBF (“Sam Bankscam Fraud”) donated at least $500M to organizations researching AI alignment and AI safety. Not exactly the kind of symbiosis I want to explore, but worth noting.
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Addendum #3:
Blockchains can only give precise answers, while AI can give approximate answers or even fabricate answers
Blockchains are censorship resistant, while AI is centralized (most are created by small doxxed teams) and have implemented restrictions on usage (most have rules against, for example, CSAM or nudity)