22 random learnings from 2022

1
As you become an adult, you realize that things around you weren’t just always there; people made them happen. But only recently have I started to internalize how much tenacity *everything* requires. That hotel, that park, that railway. The world is a museum of passion projects.
https://twitter.com/collision/status/1529452415346302976

2
…even up against powerful prescription medications like Adderall and Modafinil: sleep and all sport categories are in the top-10 for every metric, weightlifting and low-intensity exercise are ranked 1st and 2nd for “probability of having a positive effect”, and weightlifting is ranked 3rd for “probability of changing your life
https://troof.blog/posts/nootropics/

3
And so we began. At the time it felt like a fun project, but not any sort of life-changing decision. The big moments rarely do, I think, and the danger of retroactive mythologizing is that it makes people want to hold out for something dramatic, rather than throwing themselves into every opportunity.
from Sid Meier’s memoir

4
Today the CO2 exhalation of all machines greatly exceeds the exhalation of all animals and even approaches the volume generated by geological forces.
from Kevin Kelly’s What Technology Wants (I think)

5
When people look at Quentin Tarantino, they see a mad creative with a singular talent for making original movies. But Tarantino’s originality begins with imitation. He’s famous for replicating and building upon scenes from other movies, and he once said: “I steal from every single movie ever made.”
https://perell.com/essay/imitate-then-innovate/

6
This realignment would not be traditional right vs left, but rather land vs cloud, state vs network, centralized vs decentralized, new money vs old money, internationalist/capitalist vs nationalist/socialist, MMT vs BTC, and (perhaps most symbolically) Hamilton vs Satoshi
https://nakamoto.com/bitcoin-becomes-the-flag-of-technology/

7
Lessin’s five steps:
1. The Pre-Internet ‘People Magazine’ Era
2. Content from ‘your friends’ kills People Magazine
3. Kardashians/Professional ‘friends’ kill real friends
4. Algorithmic everyone kills Kardashians
5. Next is pure-AI content which beats ‘algorithmic everyone’
https://stratechery.com/2022/instagram-tiktok-and-the-three-trends/

8
The UN estimates that 5 African countries will be amongst the 10 most populated in the world by 2100:
-Nigeria
-the Democratic Republic of Congo
-Ethiopia
-Tanzania
-Egypt
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/10/for-world-population-day-a-look-at-the-countries-with-the-biggest-projected-gains-and-losses-by-2100/

9
Yes, prices would fall and keep falling as technology and a free market did away with a false construct of needing more growth to pay for prices that were only manipulated higher through money printing in the first place. With prices falling to their natural level, and on a path to free, the entire infrastructure required to support price inflation, which was only caused by ignoring the free market, will fall away.
View at Medium.com

10
AIs can be used to generate “deep fakes” while cryptographic techniques can be used to reliably authenticate things against such fakery. Flipping it around, crypto is a target-rich environment for scammers and hackers, and machine learning can be used to audit crypto code for vulnerabilities. I am convinced there is something deeper going on here. This reeks of real yin-yangery that extends to the roots of computing somehow
https://studio.ribbonfarm.com/p/the-dawn-of-mediocre-computing

11
Bitcoin is here to stay because it is cheap and easy to bring into existence. It is a networked phenomenon that emerges out of equal peers, not unlike electricity and the internet before it. The fear of Bitcoin ceasing to exist arises out of a deep misunderstanding of the nature of these phenomena. It is akin to asking: “What if electricity goes away?”
https://dergigi.com/2022/10/02/bitcoin-is-digital-scarcity/

12
most are just technical ways to reframe the problem: play it faster, play it slower, change the order, change the instruments, add repetition, remove repetition.…They never seem to discuss or argue over these changes, they just play it to see if it works.
https://medium.com/fluxx-studio-notes/10-lessons-in-productivity-and-brainstorming-from-the-beatles-ea14385e27a4

13
In 2020, EVs made up 5.6% of all new car sales in China. Last year, the proportion was over 13%. For 2022, the data shows that EVs will comprise roughly a quarter of all cars sold. This is a case study on how quickly a market can turn

14
In practice, the freakishly specific nature of the stuff ambitious kids have to do in high school is directly proportionate to the hackability of college admissions. The classes you don’t care about that are mostly memorization, the random “extracurricular activities” you have to participate in to show you’re “well-rounded,” the standardized tests as artificial as chess, the “essay” you have to write that’s presumably meant to hit some very specific target, but you’re not told what
http://www.paulgraham.com/lesson.html

15
…opportunity and optionality are often inversely correlated. The challenge is that the greatest rewards generally go to people who are tied down in certain ways. People can only become world-class at things they commit to. Ultimately, the more hesitant people are about making commitments, the higher the rewards are for people who do.
https://perell.com/essay/hugging-the-x-axis/

16
Tezuka himself was a strong admirer of Disney animation, as were many of Japan’s pioneer animators. Even today Japanese animators are strongly aware of American animation. But, virtually from the start, postwar Japanese animation has tended to go in a very different direction, not only in terms of its adult orientation and more complex story lines but also in its overall structure. It is important to emphasize the link between television and Japanese animation in terms of anime’s narrative structure and overall style…This serial quality was also reinforced by animation’s connection with the ubiquitous manga, which emphasized long-running episodic plots as well.

17
One of the best ways of accumulating emotion is to go as rapidly as possible from one take to the next. The actor begins the second take on the emotional level he reached at the end of the first take. Sometimes I don’t even cut the camera. I’ll say quietly, “Don’t cut the camera—everybody back to their opening positions and we’re going again. OK from the top: Action!”
http://www.sheilaomalley.com/?p=36326

18
I spent a morning on a Naha beach working out with Fumiyasu Yamakawa, a one-time banker. Every day at 4:30 a.m., he cycled to the beach, swam a half hour, ran a half hour, did yoga, and then met with a group of other Okinawan seniors who stood in a circle and laughed. “Why is that?” I asked. “It’s vitamin S,” he said. “You smile in the morning and it fortifies you all day long.”
From the book Blue Zones

19
The conservative who resists change is as valuable as the radical who proposes it — perhaps as much more valuable as roots are more vital than grafts. It is good that new ideas should be heard, for the sake of the few that can be used; but it is also good that new ideas should be compelled to go through the mill of objection and opposition; this is the trial heat which innovation must survive before being allowed to enter the human race
From the book Lessons of History

20
Lorecraft is clearly a strikingly millennial school of management thinking. All the thinkers who belong in this tradition are, as far as I can tell, between about 28-35 or so. They are firmly middle-of-the-pack millennials. Founders of startups who seem to practice a sort of management by lorecraft, such as Conor White-Sullivan of Roam Research, are also in this cohort.
https://studio.ribbonfarm.com/p/lands-of-lorecraft

21
That carbon dioxide in every exhale has weight, and we exhale more weight than we inhale. And the way the body loses weight isn’t through profusely sweating or “burning it off.” We lose weight through exhaled breath. For every ten pounds of fat lost in our bodies, eight and a half pounds of it comes out through the lungs; most of it is carbon dioxide mixed with a bit of water vapor. The rest is sweated or urinated out. This is a fact that most doctors, nutritionists, and other medical professionals have historically gotten wrong. The lungs are the weight-regulating system of the body.
From the book Breath (more highlights here)

22
Van Gogh was a prolific painter. For a while, he painted a painting every single day. He still only produced 900.
Gauguin: 516. Cezanne: 1300. Picasso: 1885
https://twitter.com/swombat/status/1488306608908259331

Bankless podcast notes – Vitalik Buterin on Ethereum in 2023:

Discussion based on this article: https://vitalik.ca/general/2022/12/05/excited.html

2022 accomplishments:
PoW>PoS reduced energy consumption by 99%
faster, more consistent block confirmation times – every 12secs
ZkEvms – multiple implementations with mainnet launch in 2023
Sign-in with Ethereum adoption (Farcaster, Lens)
Russia invasion of Ukraine – crypto proven to be useful
Continuing adoption in LatAm (eg, Argentina)
Crypto as international payment system for philanthropy

Post-peak price is often when major innovations launch (eg, Ethereum itself, Uniswap, PoS transition)

MtGox was, in a way, FTX of first cycle – but Mark Karpeles has proven himself a responsible actor in aftermath unlike Su Zhu and Kyle
But back then, MtGox implosion felt like existential crisis for bitcoin, for legitimacy

2023 will be year of rollups, Ethereum in its “scalable era”

Crypto no longer in 0.1—>10% stage
Now it’s about 10%—>70%, requires new strategies – eg, can’t keep losing $5B in hacks

Esperanto is failure case
A constructed language in 19th c – easier to learn because simpler spelling, more regular grammar
Hope for path to world peace, everyone can speak same language
Didn’t succeed – just enthusiasts, niche community
Beautiful technical properties – but adoption went nowhere

Linux is middle case – kind of succeeded, kind of hasn’t
Linux desktop is mostly a failure – very usable but low adoption
But lots of backend adoption – eg, Android and many servers run on Linux

Internet is big success case

Will Ethereum / crypto end up as Esperanto, Linux, or the Internet?
Probably not Esperanto but possible that it’s between Linux<->Internet
Possible that adoption bifurcates between developing and developed countries

If good people are passive, the things that win will be drama queens of the world – we need to drown out the drama queens

Vitalik intentionally using the word “crypto” less and “Ethereum” more
Crypto is ungovernable commons with no barriers to entry – but just because you’re “crypto” doesn’t mean Ethereum is your partner or ally

IOTA, XRP – still completely centralized, but they’re still on Coinmarketcap
XRP wrote documents to US government accusing BTC and ETH of being China controlled

Cosmos ecosystem – deeply respect it
One of few genuinely trying something different, modularity, different design space, have a technical vision, have not been pump-and-dumpy
DH: even though Terra / Luna was built on Cosmos, no one blames Cosmos for its failure

Others Vitalik respects: Zcash, Bitcoin (decentralization ethos)

2022 lessons learned:
-crypto at its most honorable when it takes core principles seriously (decentralization, self custody, transparency)
-some apps that grew quickly tried too hard to integrate w/ mainstream, and compromised their values
-what’s succeeded: Uniswap (DEX); Rai (stablecoin); ENS
-privacy tech hit a speed bump

5 use cases that excite Vitalik:

1 – Money – charitable donations; investing in startups; crypto as frictionless international money
Even if CBDC is adopted, likely hard to use / transmit across borders
In developing world, crypto is easiest way to send money home to families, to store value
Developed world activism or industries at risk of de-platforming (eg, adult content)
Make a wallet that 1B people use

2 – Defi – most important are the most simple use cases eg, stablecoins, DEX, prediction markets (stuff that’s been around for longer)
Newer stuff is very complicated, yield farming, high APR/APY, short-term focused
4 years ago even the ponzis were more honorable; now there’s a lot more obfuscation going on
Make a stablecoin that can survive USD hyperinflation

3 – Identity – authentication; attestations; domain names; ENS; proof of personhood
Don’t think identity focused blockchains will work
RSA: Identity is emergent, a byproduct of what you’re building (eg, Facebook is useful and ID emerged, same with Google / Gmail)
ETH wallets vs PGP keys – PGP used to be strongest cypherpunk meme, now ETH wallet just works and is being adopted and is public/private key pair – possible bc big username
Standards emerge over time – eg, POAP as attestation protocol
Crypto is not just product, but also a community

4 – DAOs – set to replace things other than corporations (which are big and need the infrastructure);
Where DAO makes sense
-Quickly spin up multi-sig of 7 people
-Setup a truly decentralized org that is resistant to attacks
Less bullish on DAO as VC fund
How to setup non financial governance? How to resist 51% attack from token holders?
eg, Maker has 7B in capital (TVL), but governance token is only worth 500M mcap – could buy up token and get access to capital

5 – Hybrid apps – partially onchain; more centralized services
eg, Centralized exchanges with proof of reserve attestations, or games / social media that post occasionally to chain
DH: similar to L2s post data to L1 that forces them to play by set of rules
DH: Blockchain is a check on human folly

How do we achieve this?
-continue interacting with regulators
-give grants to enable builders working on important problems (eg, self custody wallets)

What is Vitalik’s role in 2023
Helping projects, explore app space, ETH protocol stuff, push EVM in good trajectory, connect with various ETH communities around world, helping ETH ecosystem be stable and self-supporting
Rumor that he wants to turn “gas” into “mana” – he even proposed splitting gas into several types of gas, and naming one of them mana

Breath by James Nestor – book highlights: “Those with the worst anxieties consistently suffer from the worst breathing habits”

This book improved my life. I’d put it up there with The Power of Habits, Religion for Atheists, Spark, and The Power of Now. Seems like “The Power of” is a book titling hack.

Breath’s message is simple: Mouth breathing is seriously bad for you. Stop doing it. Instead, breath slowly and steadily through your nose. Take deep exhales.

Many of our modern health problems – from poor sleep, to panic attacks, to anxiety – could be caused by, or at the very least are made worse by, bad breathing habits.

Oh, and chew gum. Work those mouth muscles.

Though we hear many of the same messages from yoga teachers and health gurus, Breath has convinced me to take it seriously, because science.

ymmv but I hope you take away something too

BREATH BY JAMES NESTOR

When the nasal cavity gets congested, airflow decreases and bacteria flourish. These bacteria replicate and can lead to infections and colds and more congestion. Congestion begets congestion, which gives us no other option but to habitually breathe from the mouth.

Oxygen, it turned out, produced 16 times more energy than carbon dioxide. Aerobic life forms used this boost to evolve,

Instead, we’re adopting and passing down traits that are detrimental to our health. This concept, called dysevolution, was made popular by Harvard biologist Daniel Lieberman, and it explains why our backs ache, feet hurt, and bones are growing more brittle. Dysevolution also helps explain why we’re breathing so poorly.

Simply training yourself to breathe through your nose could cut total exertion in half and offer huge gains in endurance. The athletes felt invigorated while nasal breathing rather than exhausted. They all swore off breathing through their mouths ever again.

Inhaling from the nose has the opposite effect. It forces air against all those flabby tissues at the back of the throat, making the airways wider and breathing easier. After a while, these tissues and muscles get “toned” to stay in this opened and wide position. Nasal breathing begets more nasal breathing.

Every morning Olsson and I would listen to recordings of ourselves sleeping the night before. We laughed at first, then we got a bit frightened: what we heard weren’t the sounds of happy Dickensian drunks, but of men being strangled to death by our own bodies.

I’d read a report from the Mayo Clinic which found that chronic insomnia, long assumed to be a psychological problem, is often a breathing problem. The millions of Americans who have a chronic insomnia disorder and who are, right now, like me, staring out bedroom windows, or at TVs, phones, or ceilings, can’t sleep because they can’t breathe.

The ancient Chinese were onto it as well. “The breath inhaled through the mouth is called ‘Ni Ch’i, adverse breath,’ which is extremely harmful,” states a passage from the Tao. “Be careful not to have the breath inhaled through the mouth.”

Harvold’s monkeys recovered, too. After two years of forced mouthbreathing, he removed the silicone plugs. Slowly, surely, the animals relearned how to breathe through their noses. And slowly, surely, their faces and airways remodeled: jaws moved forward and facial structure and airways morphed back into their wide and natural state.

scientists have known for more than a century that the nostrils do pulse to their own beat, that they do open and close like flowers throughout the day and night.

The interior of the nose, it turned out, is blanketed with erectile tissue, the same flesh that covers the penis, clitoris, and nipples. Noses get erections. Within seconds, they too can engorge with blood and become large and stiff. This happens because the nose is more intimately connected to the genitals than any other organ;

The right nostril is a gas pedal. When you’re inhaling primarily through this channel, circulation speeds up, your body gets hotter, and cortisol levels, blood pressure, and heart rate all increase.

Inhaling through the left nostril has the opposite effect: it works as a kind of brake system to the right nostril’s accelerator. The left nostril is more deeply connected to the parasympathetic nervous system, the rest-and-relax side that lowers blood pressure, cools the body, and reduces anxiety.

The volume the ball would take up, some six cubic inches, is equivalent to the total space of all the cavities and passageways that make up the interior of the adult nose.

the mucus is the body’s “first line of defense.” It’s constantly on the move, sweeping along at a rate of about half an inch every minute, more than 60 feet per day. Like a giant conveyor belt, it collects inhaled debris in the nose, then moves all the junk down the throat and into the stomach, where it’s sterilized by stomach acid, delivered to the intestines, and sent out of your body.

The tribes attributed their vigorous health to a medicine, what Catlin called the “great secret of life.” The secret was breathing.

Catlin described how adult tribal members would even resist smiling with an open mouth, fearing some noxious air might get in. This practice was as “old and unchangeable as their hills,” he wrote, and it was shared universally throughout the tribes for millennia.

He told me that mouthbreathing contributed to periodontal disease and bad breath, and was the number one cause of cavities, even more damaging than sugar consumption, bad diet, or poor hygiene.

“The health benefits of nose breathing are undeniable,” he told me. One of the many benefits is that the sinuses release a huge boost of nitric oxide, a molecule that plays an essential role in increasing circulation and delivering oxygen into cells. Immune function, weight, circulation, mood, and sexual function can all be heavily influenced by the amount of nitric oxide in the body. (The popular erectile dysfunction drug sildenafil, known by the commercial name Viagra, works by releasing nitric oxide into the bloodstream, which opens the capillaries in the genitals and elsewhere.) Nasal breathing alone can boost nitric oxide sixfold, which is one of the reasons we can absorb about 18 percent more oxygen than by just breathing through the mouth.

They gathered two decades of data from 5,200 subjects, crunched the numbers, and discovered that the greatest indicator of life span wasn’t genetics, diet, or the amount of daily exercise, as many had suspected. It was lung capacity.

“What the bodily form depends on is breath (chi) and what breath relies upon is form,” states a Chinese adage from 700 AD. “When the breath is perfect, the form is perfect (too).”

And what powers the thoracic pump is the diaphragm, the muscle that sits beneath the lungs in the shape of an umbrella. The diaphragm lifts during exhalations, which shrinks the lungs, then it drops back down to expand them during inhalations. This up-and-down movement occurs within us some 50,000 times a day.

That carbon dioxide in every exhale has weight, and we exhale more weight than we inhale. And the way the body loses weight isn’t through profusely sweating or “burning it off.” We lose weight through exhaled breath. For every ten pounds of fat lost in our bodies, eight and a half pounds of it comes out through the lungs; most of it is carbon dioxide mixed with a bit of water vapor. The rest is sweated or urinated out. This is a fact that most doctors, nutritionists, and other medical professionals have historically gotten wrong. The lungs are the weight-regulating system of the body.

“Carbon dioxide is the chief hormone of the entire body; it is the only one that is produced by every tissue and that probably acts on every organ”

It turns out that when breathing at a normal rate, our lungs will absorb only about a quarter of the available oxygen in the air. The majority of that oxygen is exhaled back out. By taking longer breaths, we allow our lungs to soak up more in fewer breaths. “If, with training and patience, you can perform the same exercise workload with only 14 breaths per minute instead of 47 using conventional techniques, what reason could there be not to do it?” wrote John Douillard, the trainer who’d conducted the stationary bike experiments in the 1990s. “When you see yourself running faster every day, with your breath rate stable . . . you will begin to feel the true meaning of the word fitness.” I realized then that breathing was like rowing a boat: taking a zillion short and stilted strokes will get you where you’re going, but they pale in comparison to the efficiency and speed of fewer, longer strokes.

Slower, longer exhales, of course, mean higher carbon dioxide levels. With that bonus carbon dioxide, we gain a higher aerobic endurance.

He’d become convinced that breathing too much was the culprit behind several chronic diseases. Like Bohr and Henderson, Buteyko was fascinated with carbon dioxide, and he too believed that increasing this gas by breathing less could not only keep us fit and healthy. It could heal us as well.

The healthiest patients breathed alike, too: less. They’d inhale and exhale about ten times a minute, taking in a total of about five to six liters of air. Their resting pulses ranged from around 48 to 55, and they had about 50 percent more carbon dioxide in their exhaled breath.

Competitive swimmers usually take two or three strokes before they flip their heads to the side and inhale. Counsilman trained his team to hold their breath for as many as nine strokes. He believed that, over time, the swimmers would utilize oxygen more efficiently and swim faster.

Breathing way less delivered the benefits of high-altitude training at 6,500 feet, but it could be used at sea level, or anywhere.

But asthma can be brought on by overbreathing, which is why it’s so common during physical exertion, a condition called exercise-induced asthma that affects around 15 percent of the population and up to 40 percent of athletes.

“The yogi’s life is not measured by the number of his days, but the number of his breaths”

Societies that replaced their traditional diet with modern, processed foods suffered up to ten times more cavities, severely crooked teeth, obstructed airways, and overall poorer health. The modern diets were the same: white flour, white rice, jams, sweetened juices, canned vegetables, and processed meats. The traditional diets were all different.

Our ancient ancestors chewed for hours a day, every day. And because they chewed so much, their mouths, teeth, throats, and faces grew to be wide and strong and pronounced. Food in industrialized societies was so processed that it hardly required any chewing at all.

Weight lifters frequently deal with sleep apnea and chronic breathing problems; instead of layers of fat, they have muscles crowding the airways. Plenty of rail-thin distance runners and even infants suffer, too.

By day, we unconsciously attempt to open our obstructed airways by sloping our shoulders, craning our necks forward, and tilting our heads up.

“You, me, whoever—we can grow bone at any age,” Belfor told me. All we need are stem cells. And the way we produce and signal stem cells to build more maxilla bone in the face is by engaging the masseter—by clamping down on the back molars over and over. Chewing.

Until a few hundred years ago, mothers would breastfeed infants up to two to four years of age, and sometimes to adolescence. The more time infants spent chewing and sucking, the more developed their faces and airways would become, and the better they’d breathe later in life.

The deeper and more softly we breathe in, and the longer we exhale, the more slowly the heart beats and the calmer we become.

It’s also especially useful for middle-aged people who suffer from lower-grade stress, aches and pains, and slowing metabolisms. For them—for me—Tummo can be a preventative therapy, a way to get a fraying nervous system back on track and keep it there.

Here’s the information: To practice Wim Hof’s breathing method, start by finding a quiet place and lying flat on your back with a pillow under your head. Relax the shoulders, chest, and legs. Take a very deep breath into the pit of your stomach and let it back out just as quickly. Keep breathing this way for 30 cycles. If possible, breathe through the nose; if the nose feels obstructed, try pursed lips. Each breath should look like a wave, with the inhale inflating the stomach, then the chest. You should exhale all the air out in the same order. At the end of 30 breaths, exhale to the natural conclusion, leaving about a quarter of the air left in the lungs, then hold that breath for as long as possible. Once you’ve reached your breathhold limit, take one huge inhale and hold it another 15 seconds. Very gently, move that fresh breath of air around the chest and to the shoulders, then exhale and start the heavy breathing again. Repeat the whole pattern three or four rounds and add in some cold exposure (cold shower, ice bath, naked snow angels) a few times a week.

Willingly breathing to the point of exhaustion, they found, could place patients in a state of stress where they could access subconscious and unconscious thoughts. Essentially, the therapy helped people blow a fuse in their minds so they could return to a state of groovy calm.

Whenever the body is forced to take in more air than it needs, we’ll exhale too much carbon dioxide, which will narrow the blood vessels and decrease circulation, especially in the brain. With just a few minutes, or even seconds, of overbreathing, brain blood flow can decrease by 40 percent, an incredible amount.

If we keep breathing a little faster and deeper, more blood will drain from the brain, and the visual and auditory hallucinations will become more profound.

The textbooks were wrong. The amygdalae were not the only “alarm circuit of fear.” There was another, deeper circuit in our bodies that was generating perhaps a more powerful sense of danger than anything the amygdalae alone could muster.

All this suggests that for the past hundred years psychologists may have been treating chronic fears, and all the anxieties that come with them, in the wrong way. Fears weren’t just a mental problem, and they couldn’t be treated by simply getting patients to think differently. Fears and anxiety had a physical manifestation, too. They could be generated from outside the amygdalae, from within a more ancient part of the reptilian brain.

Those with the worst anxieties consistently suffer from the worst breathing habits.

People with anorexia or panic or obsessive-compulsive disorders consistently have low carbon dioxide levels and a much greater fear of holding their breath. To avoid another attack, they breathe far too much and eventually become hypersensitized to carbon dioxide and panic if they sense a rise in this gas.

Tissues will begin “rusting” in much the same way as other materials. But we don’t call this “tissue rust.” We call it cancer. And this helps explain why cancers develop and thrive in environments of low oxygen.

Breathing slow, less, and through the nose balances the levels of respiratory gases in the body and sends the maximum amount of oxygen to the maximum amount of tissues so that our cells have the maximum amount of electron reactivity.

There is no mention in the Yoga Sutras of moving between or even repeating poses. The Sanskrit word asana originally meant “seat” and “posture.” It referred both to the act of sitting and the material you sit on. What it specifically did not mean was to stand up and move about. The earliest yoga was a science of holding still and building prana through breathing.

Robert Corruccini has called them, “diseases of civilization.” Nine out of ten of the top killers, such as diabetes, heart disease, and stroke are caused by the food we eat, water we drink, houses we live in, and offices we work in. They are diseases humanity created.

From what I’ve learned in the past decade, that 30 pounds of air that passes through our lungs every day and that 1.7 pounds of oxygen our cells consume is as important as what we eat or how much we exercise. Breathing is a missing pillar of health.

“If I had to limit my advice on healthier living to just one tip, it would be simply to learn how to breathe better,” wrote Andrew Weil, the famed doctor.

As basic as this sounds, full exhalations are seldom practiced. Most of us engage only a small fraction of our total lung capacity with each breath, requiring us to do more and get less. One of the first steps in healthy breathing is to extend these breaths, to move the diaphragm up and down a bit more, and to get air out of us before taking a new one in.

The perfect breath is this: Breathe in for about 5.5 seconds, then exhale for 5.5 seconds. That’s 5.5 breaths a minute for a total of about 5.5 liters of air.

Sanya Richards-Ross, a Jamaican-American sprinter, used Buteyko’s techniques to win three Olympic golds in the 4×400 meter relay (in 2004, 2008, and 2012) and gold in the 400 meters in 2012. She was ranked as the top 400-meter runner in the world for a decade. Photos of Richards-Ross with her mouth closed

Hard, natural foods and chewing gum likely work just as effectively. Marianna Evans recommends her patients chew gum for a couple of hours a day. I too followed this advice and some days I would chomp on an extremely hard type of Turkish gum called Falim, which came in flavors like carbonate and mint grass. The stuff tasted pretty crude, but it offered a workout and delivered results.

Podcast notes – Edward Chancellor (The Price of Time) on Investor’s Podcast: “Could say today we’re in early stages of a debt jubilee”

Guest: Edward Chancellor – Author of The Price of Time

Even the Bible mentions interest rates and the debt jubilee
Debt jubilee = official forgiveness of debt by the ruler
Common when new ruler took power
Why debt jubilee? Because interest rates compound, led to debt bondage / labor slavery

Modern debt jubilee occurs through inflation (financial repression, where inflation > interest rates)
Could say today we’re in early stages of a debt jubilee

Iceland 2008 financial crisis – borrowed reckless during global credit boom
Much of debt was wasted on poor investments
After 2008 crisis, government put banks into receivership and defaulted on foreign debt
Default is another form of debt jubilee

Seneca the Younger
Advocates stoicism, but also tutor to Nero, earned a great fortune, gave lavish parties – many contradictions
“Time is man’s most precious possession”
Interest = price of time

This notion was revived in Renaissance Italy
How people began to justify interest rates

Time value linked to human’s natural impatience – we prefer having things sooner rather than later
eg, a factory – the earlier and faster you produce things, the more valuable
Should be incentive to use time wisely
Demurrage – medieval ships were charged if they took too long to unload their goods

Efficient economies are driven by a charge on time
If we didn’t have that charge, people would be slower, less efficient

Interest rates are linked to time preference
When young, internal interest rate is higher, more keen to borrow, more impatient, and vice-versa when older

John Law
“Is this guy for real?”
Son of Edinburgh goldsmith (back then, goldsmiths were a form of proto bank)
Law inherits some money
Becomes a dandy / fop in London
Loses fortune gambling
Duels with another dandy, Law kills him
Law arrested, escaped jail, flees to continental Europe
Toured Europe for 20 years
Ends up in Paris
Improved at gambling, very good at probabilities
Develops interest in economics
Proposes a land bank – lend money against land
Argues money (gold or silver) was just a yardstick of value
First “monetarist” economist – can replace gold or silver with paper currency
This will bring rates down, can print more money
This will bring economic prosperity
Starts a private bank in France
Takes over a French trading company, acquires French mint, tobacco monopoly, owned Louisiana Purchase land rights – extensive holding company
Turns private bank into a central bank (the Bank Royale)
He goes broke because he issues paper currency and withdraws gold and silver from circulation
Results in massive increase in money supply
Rates drop from 8% to 2%
His final act – takes over entire French national debt – converts all bondholders credit into his company’s shares (the Mississippi company) – like a QE operation
There’s an extraordinary speculative boom – enormous fortunes are made – the word “millionaire” enters the lexicon
John Law becomes the richest person ever
Considered a great statesman
Then it all falls to pieces – general inflation rises, people sell his company’s shares
Company goes bankrupt, he has to flee, leaving behind his family
Wound up in Venice 8-9 years later, went back to gambling
“A brilliant eventful life”
Too ambitious, moved too quickly, but didn’t have eye for details
His motivation was to bring down interest rates – thus provided framework for modern central banking – was 250 years ahead of his time
Modern lawmakers don’t seem to notice that Law’s experiment ended in resounding failure

Louis 14 – sun king
Huge debt due to wars with Britain, Holland
French debt = 100% of GDP

Modern fiat system is inherently inflationary

“2% tipping point”
Walter Bagehot – Economist editor
Noted that speculative manias coincided with periods of low rates
Current research indicates 3% seems to be threshold

Interest = price of anxiety or price of risk

Policymakers think you can lower rates as lever, but you’re playing with price of risk, and you won’t know where the risk is building
Also encourages misallocation of capital

Concept of “Natural rate of interest”
One definition: “Return on capital of an economy without money”
Observe asset price inflation, credit booms – as indicators whether policy rate is too high or low

Hadley – interest rates encourage natural selection
The higher the hurdle rate, the fewer that survive
Schumpeter – creative destruction – natural process of economic sclerosis, need this destruction to maintain a healthy growing economy

Low rates create low productivity, creates negative feedback loop

Academic economists have too abstract a view of economy, without looking at observed reality

An Assyrian clay tablet dating to around 2800 B.C. bears the inscription: “Our Earth is degenerate in these later days; there are signs that the world is speedily coming to an end; bribery and corruption are common; children no longer obey their parents; every man wants to write a book and the end of the world is evidently approaching.”
// almost certainly an apocryphal quote, but included in book anyway

Final realizations —
Realized how central interest rate was to all of human life, puts price on time, and especially to the capitalist system
If you don’t apply a discount rate to income / cash flow, you can’t price something accurately
“We’ve lost sight of this most important economic variable”
Jim Grant: interest is the universal price
Because we’ve lost sight of it, we’ve gone down a pretty bad route as a result

A little allegory about deflation and inflation: Satoshi Cove and Fiat Reef

Pardon my silly meanderings, but if I can’t write stupid stuff on this blog then what really is it for

Here are two short stories, reasoning about deflation and inflation from simplistic first principles.

Satoshi Cove: a little allegory about deflation

There is a small unspoilt island called Satoshi Cove. For generations, the villagers who live there have led simple and happy lives. They survive by growing corn and raising chickens.

The island’s currency is a rare wild pearl, which glows a soft pink. The best swimmers on the island dive for these pearls during the stormy winter months.

Because the search is risky, and the pearls grow slowly, the supply of pearls only grows by a few percent each year. So the currency supply is quite stable. In addition to pearls, the villagers have invented simple forms of credit and barter.

One day, one of the islanders – a noted eccentric – learns how to turn chicken poop into a rich fertilizer by adding salt and other natural compounds. At first of the other farmers don’t believe him, but the ones who do are able to use the fertilizer to improve their corn crop. By using this new fertilizer, the average corn farmer’s harvest increases by 25%, and because chicken feed is also composed of corn byproducts, the average chicken farmer’s output also increases by 5%.

Thus this entrepreneur has invented something – a new fertilizer – which leads to meaningful growth in the island’s production of corn and chicken. This is productivity-driven growth.

Most of the island benefits from this entrepreneur’s invention:

The inventor becomes wealthy by selling the fertilizer he creates.

The islanders can produce and sell more corn and more chickens.

The prices of corn and chicken fall, which enables the average villager to buy more.

But not everyone benefits. A few islanders are hurt by this change.

In particular, lenders who have made loans to be repaid in real goods like corn and chicken are hurt. Corn and chicken are now more plentiful, and thus less valuable. If a lender is to receive 10 chickens in re-payment, those 10 chickens would now be worth less.

It’s important to note that not all lenders are hurt. Lenders who have made loans to be repaid in pearls, conversely, have benefitted, because those pearls can now buy more corn and chicken.

In a similar way, borrowers who have received loans to be repaid in pearls are also hurt. The prices of corn and chicken have fallen, but the borrower is still required to pay back a fixed number of pearls.

And just like the inverse of the lenders’ situation, not all borrowers are hurt — those who have borrowed loans to be repaid in corn and chickens have benefitted.

This is a small example of productivity-driven growth leading to deflation, in a very simple economy. We have removed many elements of a modern “real” economy – for example, the island doesn’t trade with neighbors, and there is only one form of currency (pearls) – but hopefully it’s illustrative.

You can very clearly see that deflation here, which is caused by a valuable new invention, improves the quality of living for most islanders.

The price of food falls, which allows people to afford more. The innovator becomes wealthy. It enables farmers to produce more. And most importantly, it inspires people to create and invent more.

Imagine if this pattern were repeated over generations. The prices of food would continue to fall. Perhaps they would find new types of crops to grow. Or new farm animals to raise. The island’s productivity and output would increase, and along with it, so would quality of life.

So why is deflation a bad thing?

Fiat Reef: A little allegory about inflation

Now let’s talk about a similar island called Fiat Reef. In just about every way, it is a copy of Satoshi Cove.

The only difference?

Instead of an inventive entrepreneur who creates a new fertilizer, a creative and brave diver realizes that he can artificially grow the rare pearls by adding tiny grains of sand into the oysters. By doing this, he can double his own pearl output during each winter harvest. For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume he is just one of ten divers. So each season, the amount of new pearls discovered grows by 10%.

This is a form of financial innovation that leads to an increase in the island’s currency supply. This is a very simple and pure example of money inflation.

Now who benefits from this inflationary change to the island’s economy?

First and foremost, the inventive diver benefits. He’s literally created money. He harvests it first, and he can spend it to buy more corn and chicken.

As the money supply on the island grows, others benefit too. His favorite seller of corn and chicken benefits, because their customer is now much richer. And as those sellers make more money, they may raise the wages of their employees.

But importantly – not everyone benefits. Those who benefit most are those who are first to receive the money; the ones closest to the diver.

Moreover, many people are hurt by this change. In the same way that deflation hurt certain borrowers and lenders, inflation also hurts certain borrowers and lenders.

As the new currency trickles into the economy, the prices of corn and chicken begin to rise. And while some islanders are earning more, most of them aren’t. Thus they are able to afford less food.

In addition, because the money supply is growing faster than its usual pace, the purchasing power of pearls decreases. You can buy less with the same number of pearls. So everyone who has saved pearls will begin to feel poorer.

Now, the inventive diver was only able to increase the island’s pearl supply by 10% each season. But where this inflation really becomes problematic is when the other divers learn to copy his technique. Soon, the supply of pearls is growing 20%, 40%, and even more during each harvest cycle.

For a time, the divers themselves feel rich as kings, and spread the wealth to their family and friends and favorite farms. But then prices begin to rise faster and faster. If there is double the money, but no change in the amount of corn or chickens, then necessarily the price of corn and chicken will increase.

Eventually, what everyone wants to do is become a diver, and hunt for pearls.

On Fiat Reef, everyone is now incentivized to make more money, instead of making new things. Everyone wants to be a diver, or to be close to the divers so they get first dibs. Few islanders want to invent new fertilizers, or produce more corn and chicken.

In short, far more people are hurt by this change, which is an inflation of the money supply. Prices rise for all goods on the island. A few people win big. But the outcome is more complicated, and the long-term effects are more damaging.

Reality is more complicated than this simple example, and there are winners and losers on both Satoshi Cove and Fiat Reef.

But ask yourself which island you’d rather live on. Would you rather live on Satoshi Cove, where the goal is to invent and make great things, an island where output is increasing and prices are falling?

Or would rather live on Fiat Reef, where the goal is to become a diver and make more money, where prices are constantly increasing so it’s a race to see who gets the most money and buys the most things first?

Yes this is massively over simplified and exaggerated. The islands are closed economies with no trade and only one currency (pearls). Both deflation and inflation can hurt people.

But why is there such a gulf in public perception between the two? Why are we led to believe that deflation is so dangerous, and could potentially lead to economic collapse? Conversely, why are we told that some amount of inflation is not only good, but even necessary for our very economy to function? How did things get this way?