Podcast notes – web3 and crypto critiques with Molly White and Jason Calacanis

This Week in Startups
Host: Jason Calacanis and Molly Wood
Guest: Molly White

Ukraine
Solicited crypto donations and received millions which was withdrawn (proving that crypto can work in adverse situations)
Binance donating $10M
PussyRiot raised $3M through a DAO for war effort

Molly White – Wikipedia editor, software engineer
Saw web3 broadening in a scary way
Launched https://web3isgoinggreat.com/ to highlight the scams and shady behaviors

A lot of tech grouped into web3 umbrella that isn’t new – ledgers aren’t new; internet payment protocols aren’t new
What’s new is cryptocurrencies – but she doesn’t believe there’s a future

Take a tech problem, add blockchain tech, and raise millions
Most can do better with different database structure

Jason: immutable database is inferior tech in 99% of cases

True believers are less common these days
Usually they’re not shilling NFTs

To truly understand web3, need to understand tech, law, economics, many domains

In a normal world, you should be concerned if you’re selling something and you can’t explain why (“why do you need a blockchain?”)

Jason: bitcoin toxicity is an explicit philosophy among maxis
Another concern – Wash trading / painting the tape (trading with yourself back and forth to pump price, or with other insiders / whales)

Melania Trump – sold a watercolor NFT, but if you analyze the blockchain data, it seems like she just bought her own NFT

Celebrity grifts – De’Aaron Fox (NBA player) did an NFT project and suddenly abandoned it (a rug pull)

web3 founders seem to believe that normal laws don’t apply – eg, copyright law
class action lawsuits have been filed, eg, Kim Kardashian

Jason: in middle of ICO lawsuits now, and NFT lawsuits will be coming in a few years
“it’s a cult”
bitcoin is good store of value, hasn’t been hacked, easy to trade

If economy collapses (Mad Max), how will bitcoin really be useful?

Energy use
Proof of work has to be increasingly energy intensive, otherwise it doesn’t work
You can’t mine on home PC anymore

What about developing economies / authoritarian regimes?
Bitcoin has more use, but exposed to new types of risk (how to actually convert to fiat, price volatility)
eg, Canadian trucker protests – difficulties withdrawing bitcoin to cash

DAOs
Why are smart contracts and blockchains required for self governance?
Most DAOs are – buy token, token = vote
Someone hijacked a DAO by buying up a lot of tokens and then drained its treasury
Self governing communities are very difficult

To believe in pure decentralization / immutability, you have to be very extreme
True believers are more libertarian / anarchist
But newer ones try to parrot it but don’t realize the drawbacks / tradeoffs

Jason: BAYC founders not happy they were doxxed – but it’s a billion dollar project!

Even doxxing has been subverted – it’s serious and egregious
But in crypto doxxing can be good – because the founders aren’t anon
BuzzFeed doxxing of BAYC was very easy / light – but reporter was aggressively doxxed in return

A lot of them are very very young – 19yo and controlling $2M

Podcast notes – Fantasy novelist Brandon Sanderson’s 3 pieces of advice

Topic: Lies that writers tell you

Loves parrots – has a pet parrot

Main lie: “You can do anything you want to”

He writes books about people who succeed despite terrible odds
Short story contest, won first prize
Judges told him the story felt strange, and then realized he’d stapled the pages backwards

Not a reader when he was a kid, thought books were boring
Middle school books felt like kids with a pet where the pet died — he wasn’t interested

A teacher got him interested in fantasy novels
Once he read them, he immediately wanted to become a writer

Two childhood desires
1) become a famous novelist
2) have a pet dragon

Survivorship bias – people want to trust successful people, but it can be a fallacy; we don’t know how much of success was skill, talent, and luck

Three pieces of advice

I will do hard things, and they will make me a better person, even if I end up failing

ONE: Make goals you have control over

“I want to win awards” – this is a goal you don’t have control over

He has a class of 15 good writers, and only 2-3 will make it professionally, even though all 15 are talented, qualified, written novels before, and still only 10-20% succeed

In 2002, had crisis of faith in writing, was actively writing, went to college with the goal of becoming a novelist. Next 10 years, wrote 13 novels, none of them sold, kept getting rejected. Weren’t dark enough. So he tried writing darker, but the writing wasn’t good. Wasn’t his style / desire
“What am I doing with my life?”
Realized even though he wasn’t succeeding, he sincerely loved writing those books
Even if he wrote 100 books that didn’t sell, he’d still consider himself a success
His goal changed from “famous novelist” to “get better at every book”
Write the books he loved, his way, and acknowledge it’s good for him even if they don’t sell
The 13th book sold, and then the 6th book sold, and his career took off

TWO: Learn how you work

Lie: “You’ll know you’re meant to be a writer if it’s the only thing you wanna do”

Some writers are like this, but not all
Writing is tough; it still feels hard for him
Figure out what motivates you, hack your brain, almost like tricking yourself

What motivates him: Track his daily word count, has a spreadsheet

Experimentation is important

THREE: Break it down

His Stormlight Archives series are LONG books, daunting for him to write it

Set goals, break into small manageable pieces

His writing classes rarely discussed HOW to be a writer, instead just read books and analyzed them

His roadmap was writing 13 novels before selling one – long hard road

Writing has great intrinsic value

Writing is a bit like telepathy

Talking to readers about how they felt, what they saw in your characters

Hope is wonderful, it’s what keeps us going, but temper your hope – combine it with the 3 tips above

Podcast notes – Leo Lucisano on crypto regulatory predictions (On The Brink)

Leo Lucisano – partner at Decentral Park Capital
On The Brink podcast, host Matt Walsh

What is DPC
Digital asset investor focused on DEFI
Just closed $75M DeFi fund
Invest across stages from pre-token / early stage to liquid investments

CPA, legal training
Worked at:
PWC – MBS and structured products
A SoFi competitor in Silicon Valley
Challenger bank in Sweden

Wrote a popular blog post on regulations
https://decentralparkcapital.substack.com/p/the-regulatory-state-22-predictions

In near term, expect tokens to be treated as securities, regulators won’t have time or expertise to properly identify “decentralized” products
Regulators have been very aggressive and will continue to be

Stablecoin regulation is coming, fit into money market / charter regime – lowest hanging fruit
Then custody – will shape how big banks and institutional custodians move into crypto and also control current CEXes, infrastructure

For large protocols focus is consumer protection
eg, Uniswap, “soft decentralization” (DAO) – still have flag bearers / people to target

Could be a Day of reckoning – tons of SEC enforcement actions against multiple projects

Expects spot ETF by July – SEC will use it to control institutional funds flow

Growing economic incentives for tradfi (eg, Wall Street banks) to pressure regulators to clarify rules, ease their entry into crypto

Challenger banks coming into crypto – like Robinhood and Square

Fairly ingrained web of contagion in crypto now – almost impossible nut to crack, but regulators must do it anyway

Fully regulated – crypto builders are doing KYC from beginning
Fully decentralized – eg Synthetix – will do ok during this regulatory wave

NFT financialization – rapidly growing space – looks a lot like defi

Regulation’s 3 buckets
1. tax revenue
2. consumer protection
3. anti money laundering (AML)

Likely that after this wave of tough 2022 regulation, we’ll see enormous growth

Crypto lobby has really matured, started in 2021
Local politicians are embracing the crypto discussion
Becoming a single issue topic – pro-crypto is good for social engagement, political donations
“power of crypto twitter”

2022 is year of the industry growing up

Podcast notes – Arnold Schwarzenegger on the Tim Ferriss Show

Tim Ferriss Show
Guest Arnold Schwarzenegger
2015 podcast re-broadcast

Likes pranks and practical jokes
When things get intense, he tries to lighten things up – “in 10 years we’ll laugh about this”

Grew up in Austria
No running water – had a well 100 yards away
Had a chamberpot for a toilet
Never felt poor, because they were surrounded by farmers and poor workers
Dad was cop

Where does his confidence come from?
Clear vision – you know why you’re suffering
Wanted to win Mr. Universe – visualized it clearly
Wanted audience and other bodybuilders to idolize him
“Not there to compete, there to win”

Psychological warfare
People are vulnerable in certain areas
If you criticize people, watch how they react, freak out, shrink
Let’s talk about your weakness, then let’s rebuild everything

Sports are not just physical thing – mental strength is more important
Among bodybuilding finalists – not much difference in how you look, it’s about how you act, your posing routine, your psychology

He never auditioned in Hollywood
Carved out a different niche
Lots of criticism that he looked too big, too muscular, his accent
Made Conan and Terminator – both directors said Arnold was only one who could do it
“What agents said was an obstacle became an asset”

Business / Entrepreneurship
Became a real estate millionaire before his Hollywood career really took off (after Conan in 1982)
Bot an apartment building – in 70s, inflation was high, could leverage up
Also had a home construction company, employed other bodybuilders
Then had a mail order business
Each decade offered a unique opportunity that he took advantage of
eg, 80s and rise of action films

Franco Columbu
Friend who he brought over from Europe, was training and business partner, strongman + power lifter + body builder
won Mr Universe and Mr Olympia
spoke no English initially
studied and became a chiropractor

Language / accent
Austrians are like Southerners – have unique German accent
Never intended to lose his accent – but rather focus on speaking it clearly, enunciating
eg, Kissinger’s and Huffington’s accent become part of their identity

Film career
Twins – Ivan Reitman helped him develop the idea, bring out his funny side, partners with him and Danny
made more on Twins than any other movie
cost $18M, earned $200M+ globally

Why not finance the film himself?
Felt like he should focus on performance, not investing as it’s totally different pursuit

Passionate about afterschool programs
Saw that during the 3-6pm period (after the school day), kids don’t have enough support / supervision, and get into trouble as a result
Feels good to help those in need, that’s what life is all about

Who Arnold admires
Gates, Buffett, Elon Musk
Nelson Mandela – showed power of tolerance / forgiveness / inclusion
Gorbachev – grew up under Communism and had chutzpah to dismantle it
Muhammad Ali – successful in sports and public service
Cincinnatus – Roman emperor, farmer who was asked to lead Rome, and after he succeeded, he went back to farming; and he did that twice!
“very addictive to be powerful”

Favorite books
Book about Churchill
“Free to choose” by Milton Friedman
California by Kevin Starr

In 1970s, too many things happening in his life, was hard to find mental clarity
Found a transcendental meditation teacher
20 mins morning & night, learned to disconnect and rejuvenate his mind
Can find meditation space while at the gym (because of the focus and concentration, can lose himself in it)

Wants subnational governments (like California) to set their own policy goals, such as crusading for a renewable energy future

Podcast notes – Matthew Walker on the power of sleep (Farnam Street podcast)

Matthew Walker – Power of Sleep
Shane Farnam’s Knowledge Project

Very dangerous to stay in bed a long time while awake, because brain then associates wakefulness with bed
Go somewhere else, read, relax
You wouldn’t sit at dining table waiting to get hungry

Caffeine
Benefits of coffee are similar to benefits of sleep, but it’s not the caffeine, it’s the coffee BEAN bc it provides majority of daily antioxidants
Health benefits are similar with decaffeinated coffee
Keeps you awake (5-6 hour half life)
Caffeine accumulates over time
Not only can caffeine make it harder to fall asleep, but it can wake you up during sleep cycles
It can also decrease deep sleep from 20-40%

Alcohol
Helps you sleep but due to its sedative properties – it’s not healthy
Can spike your nervous system, produces sleep fragmentation (wake up multiple times)
Alcohol reduces REM sleep and growth hormone production
REM is good for creativity and emotional stability and hormone production
Even one glass of wine in evening can measurably impact sleep

Insomnia
4 types (eg, sleep onset insomnia, sleep maintenance insomnia)
Chronic grade insomnia – consistent symptoms for 3 months
Causes?
-30% heritable (genetic)
-stress & anxiety
-excess caffeine
-physical pain
Common cause of insomnia is hyper arousal – hyper alert nervous system (fight or flight branch) – the “tired & wired” phenotype
First line treatment is CBT (cognitive behavioral therapy) – benefits last longer than eg sleeping pills
1. if you’re awake, don’t stay in bed
2. don’t get anxious / angry, re-appraise and just tell yourself you’ll rest in bed, relax, even if you don’t fall asleep
3. constrain bed times (eg, instead of spending 2 hours tossing and turning, go to bed 2 hours later) – increase sleep efficiency. Longer you’re awake, the more sleep pressure there is. Teaches brain to become hungry for sleep

Temperature
A key regulator of sleep
Hunter gatherers fall asleep a few hours after sunset, and before sunrise (not at sunrise) when the temperature begins rising
When you feel most sleepy – your core body temp is dropping the fastest (1 deg C)
During sleep onset, blood swells to hands, face, feet – so paradoxically you’re warming up to fall asleep
Warming hands & feet can help you fall asleep
Mammals don’t have hair on hands and feet because it’s designed to radiate and release heat
That’s why hot baths and hot showers help – it’s because your extremities are hot, and your core body temp plummets (!)
As you approach waking up, your body temp rises
Part of why coffee helps is because it warms the body in the morning

Quantified self / Oura rings
He tracks with Oura ring and is advisor for them
Orthosomnia – anxiety about improving sleep that it’s self-defeating, becomes mal-adaptive
Sometimes the reports have placebo effect – if tracker tells you you had bad sleep, it can affect your cognitive performance
The best sleep tracker is the one you use consistently
Useful metrics
–sleep efficiency is most important (90%+ is good)
-balance of REM and non-REM sleep
-sleep latency (how long it takes you to fall asleep) – need a balance, if fall asleep too fast then you probably have a lot of sleep debt

His blog addressing questions and criticisms:
https://sleepdiplomat.wordpress.com/

Made claim that lack of sleep doubles risk of cancer (should have been “certain kinds of cancer”)

3 things that ensure bad sleep: Caffeine, Alcohol, and Nicotine
Importance of mental health – anxiety and stress

Sleep chronotypes – are you morning type or evening type?
Everyone has their own 24 hour Circadian rhythm – individual variation in peak and trough
Important to match chronotype with bedtime – eg, if you naturally sleep and wake late, then don’t force yourself to sleep and wake early

If you’ve had a bad night of sleep, don’t change your habits the next day eg, sleep earlier, drink more caffeine, take a nap
Keep a consistent routine

Importance of a wind-down routine – just like for kids
eg, shower, meditation, light stretching

If you nap, nap before 1pm, and keep them brief (10-15 mins)

Don’t count sheep – it’s a myth
Can make you take longer to sleep
What does work – take yourself on a mental journey (like a mental hike, a mental bike ride) – take mind off itself
Don’t look at the clock! It’s not your friend