Starting Anduril, raising VC was hard despite having sold Oculus for $1B+ – lots of hesitation / resistance against national security, building tools used for violence
Ukraine war has shattered view that we live at end of history
Defense procurement today is slow, broken
US has strongest commercial AI, followed closely by China
But the defense contractors (the Defense primes) are far behind in implementing AI / autonomy – more AI in John Deere than Department of Defense
Putin: “Ruler of world will be one that masters AI”
Defense primes don’t have access to best talent or tech
Yet the best talent, tech cos, are prohibited from working with them
After Oculus, Palmer wanted to use his money, reputation to do something unpopular
1951-59 – built 5 generations of fighter jets, 2 generations of carriers
Now we’re lucky to do one of them in a decade
After Cold War, US government wasn’t a great customer for military investment
Lots of these companies opposed to working with military – but it’s a smoke screen to preserve access to China markets and capital, it’s for self interest
Once armed conflict breaks out, we’ll realize how dependent we are on our adversary (ie China)
Wars happen if one or both sides mis-estimates probability of winning – if both agree on probabilities, they’ll negotiate / compromise
Blamed Jason Calacanis and others like him about losing his job at Oculus – “destroyed me…still filled with rage about it…”
Upset about JCal’s personal attacks, especially about his family
Palmer donated $9K to a PAC which created an anti-Hillary billboard – start of massive controversy
Why was he fired from Facebook? “Clear that a lot of people in media and tech…kept attacking me…Trump winning was what made it un-tenable”
Pmarca – feels safer to be in the mob, you’re part of the group, and you also get to attack
Andrew Bosworth leads Oculus @ Facebook now – it’s about being on right side of politics (he was extremely anti-Trump)
Lots of people at FB won’t reveal their politics if they’re right of Bernie Sanders for fear of losing job / reputations
Palmer is Republican, his Anduril CEO is Democrat
Chamath – invested in seafaring drones – had DoD contract opportunity, but faction inside team was opposed to it, resulted in a 3 year detour to make a weather app, but now back to working with government contractors which was right move
“Broadly technology industry needs to support military” – but people can choose where to work
Anduril is ~1000 employees now
VR is final computing platform – “it’s not the next one…it’s the final one”
Why is VR not massive yet?
-need more popular content to build self-sustaining flywheel
-need to improve on device quality, weight, cost
Effective use of drones in Russia-Ukraine conflict – cost asymmetry between $200K drone that destroys a multi-million tank
Anduril has $1b contract to do counter-drone work; Russia doesn’t have that tech
Cost-plus contracting is standard – everyone incentivized to build most expensive systems, not just prime contractor but also all sub-contractors – because you also get a % of that!
Anduril uses own money, builds own products – talk deeply to government about its problems
Go to government with working product, instead of just a whitepaper
US can ship weapons to Ukraine because of allies like Poland
Jason: what would Taiwan conflict look like?
-could be a drawn out blockade – economically strangle them, prevent weapons from coming in
-Taiwan doesn’t have tools today – maybe a decade ago they did – but China military tech has been ascendant
David: How vulnerable are our carriers?
Extremely – designed to project power when you have uncontested air superiority
One carrier = 5K lives lost with one hit
“If you did that to Kara Swisher…she woulda pulled you off stage”
Kara calls Palmer a “douchey man-boy”
If you care about these issues – changing your Twitter PFP isn’t enough – or who are silent
China fighting strategic and economic war against us for a long time
Hollywood promoted delusion that we can solve any problem in the last second