David Sacks – DS
Jason Calacanis – JC
Chamath – CP
David Friedberg – DF
DS:
Putin thought it would be a cakewalk, but resistance has been fierce. Amazing leadership, Western support
Dangerous crossroads, so much variance in outcomes
Lindsay Graham called for Putin’s ouster / assassination
NATO decided against imposing no-fly zone over Ukraine – effectively going to war
Advocating for not getting US more involved
DF:
Concerned not about US but its NATO allies getting involved, and then Article 5 collective defense obligates US to get involved
Franz Ferdinand moment
Nuclear reactor is like a temple on earth to God, different level of risk / extinction
DS:
Nuclear power plant attack may be mis-reporting by mainstream media
Confirmed no radiation, no explosion – there’s a lot of disinformation, pulling us into war
JC:
Crazy behavior by Russian troops, Putin to even seize the power plant
CP:
Adversity makes for strange bedfellows
Zelensky is truly patriotic
World is learning a different kind of warfare
We’re at economic war with Russia
We’re willing to put economic collateral at risk to win
Lots of global and American companies are pulling out, restricting Russia
DF:
Are we rushing into war without an exit strategy?
Lukoil was worth $60B and now worth zero, 65% of shares are held by American funds and investors
CP:
That’s a red herring
It’s not that much equity value – it’s not trillions of dollars
DF:
What about intermediaries / supply chain defaults and failures?
Russia + Ukraine = 25% of global wheat exports = lots of consumers depend on it
JC:
It’s tragic, but we need to create pain and suffering so Putin will change
DF:
Have we really done the calculus?
Economic war in short period of time – what are the consequences? How do we feed those dependent on the wheat supply?
CP:
We’re teetering towards recession
When energy prices spike 50%, we always enter recession
Government will need to be more accommodating
We’ll find a way to subsidize lower commodity prices – but will drive debt + deficits
Biden added new sanctions today to Russian crude
DS:
We’re on escalatory path here
Germans giving Ukraine missiles
We’re not in war yet, not a binary thinker
During Cold War, containment was to prevent communism, but simultaneously we wouldn’t challenge those countries that were already communist
Biden and Putin remember the Cold War
Biden re-iterated during SOTU that we wouldn’t get militarily involved
No matter what Biden does, Republicans and Fox will denounce him for weakness
What’s the end game? Our domestic dynamic and social media and cable news pushes us into escalation and WW3
Who are the grown ups?
CP:
Economic sanctions will continue to ratchet up
Only end game is regime change, Putin is only left with detente / retreat
Options now:
-Ukraine defends itself
-Russia wins
-Peace treaty, keep at current lines
Germany undid 40 years of policy, now re-arming plus investing in domestic energy
JC:
It’s terrifying for Europe as this threat is so close by, like Central America for us
Feels like no exit, Putin has pride + nuclear weapons
DS:
Russia said redline, no way Georgia / Ukraine joining NATO
Russia thinking: we’re about to have pro Western ruler in Ukraine, we’ll lose our main naval base by Black Sea and replaced by NATO base – not going to happen
Russia been saying this since 2008
Even if it’s a pretext, it still would have been good to explicitly take NATO expansion off the table
George HW Bush – great foreign policy president – thought Cheney / Rumsfeld didn’t listen, too aggressive, iron ass diplomacy
JC:
Has Putin overplayed his hand?
DF:
Putin can only keep plowing forward
CP:
Half Russia economy is exports, $500B-1T
World banks can print that money to compensate
JC:
Great decoupling is upon us
CP:
Historically economic sanctions aren’t enough, eventually get pulled into military battle
One real asset that is global and universal is financial payments infra
You can cripple a country / entity when you blacklist them from this infra
We haven’t explored this in full until now
Especially in airlines + oil
JC:
Take away your seat at the table
Netflix, Google, Apple pulling out
Russians turning off other internet services
CP:
Japan, Europe, Canada, America can support $5-7T in subsidies, shut off Russian exports for 5-10 years
DS:
What are our objectives?
Don’t think regime change is necessary – it’s cringe
US has not successfully done regime change
Goal should be ceasefire
Putin miscalculated resolve of Zelensky + the West
JC:
Putin lost info war
First meme war
CP:
Russian GDP has decayed 35% in last decade, it’s contracting
Paused listening about 3/5 of way through