Interesting articles I recently read: Mosquitoes, Palantir, F1 Racing, Trolls, and the Amazon (rainforest)

How Mosquitoes Helped Shape the Course of Human History [Smithsonian Mag]

We don’t know yet if mosquitoes have an absolute purpose ecologically. The males do drink nectar and pollinate plants, but not to the degree that other insects do, like bees. They don’t ingest waste, like some other insects do. As far as we know, they don’t serve an indispensable food source for any other animal. So no—looking at the historical impact of the mosquito, perhaps their role is a Malthusian check against uncontrolled population growth, and within the ecological balance and equilibrium of Mother Nature.

Techie Software Soldier Spy [NY Mag]

Another plus for Palantir: It didn’t crash nearly as often. Its software wasn’t necessarily any better at parsing intelligence, but Shyu could see why some soldiers, particularly infantry who didn’t have time to learn a complex program, preferred it. “I walked away convinced that Palantir is much easier to use,” she says

Engineers, not racers, are the true drivers of success in motor sport [Economist]

…it assigns drivers in the 1950s 58% of their teams’ points; today, that share is 19%. Fangio, who was a mechanic by training and won titles using cars from four different firms, was known as “the master”. The masters of modern F1 are engineers who sit behind laptops, not steering wheels

Internet trolls may not be the type of people you think they are, according to Japanese research [SoraNews]

…while 30 percent of replies were from unemployed people, students or housewives, 31 percent of replies were from people in managerial positions

people who write hateful comments feel like it’s their duty, and by letting their feelings known they are dealing out justice.

This is my message to the western world – your civilisation is killing life on Earth [The Guardian]

It took us thousands of years to get to know the Amazon rainforest. To understand her ways, her secrets, to learn how to survive and thrive with her. And for my people, the Waorani, we have only known you for 70 years (we were “contacted” in the 1950s by American evangelical missionaries), but we are fast learners, and you are not as complex as the rainforest

And the obligatory crypto recommendation:

“Eth can do everything that Bitcoin can do, plus a lot more” [Twitter thread]

2. BTC has simple goals: 1. >21 million coins ever, 2. max censorship resistance, 3. there is no three. Being willing to accept all tradeoffs in service of those goals means we assume BTC is likely to be the best at those 2, even if or even *because* it sucks at other things.

Genius: A self-interested obsession that happens to be useful or important

That’s my one-line takeaway from PG’s essay, The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius.

A few excerpts below:

Which leads us to the second feature of this kind of obsession: there is no point. A bus ticket collector’s love is disinterested. They’re not doing it to impress us or to make themselves rich, but for its own sake.

An obsessive interest in a topic is both a proxy for ability and a substitute for determination. Unless you have sufficient mathematical aptitude, you won’t find series interesting. And when you’re obsessively interested in something, you don’t need as much determination: you don’t need to push yourself as hard when curiosity is pulling you.

So what matters? You can never be sure. It’s precisely because no one can tell in advance which paths are promising that you can discover new ideas by working on what you’re interested in.

Even Newton occasionally sensed the degree of his obsessiveness. After computing pi to 15 digits, he wrote in a letter to a friend: I am ashamed to tell you to how many figures I carried these computations, having no other business at the time.

Recent inspiring quotes: “A wise man seeks the truth for he knows it will always find him.” – Sergey Nazarov

It’s not the will to win that matters—everyone has that. It’s the will to prepare to win that matters. — legendary Alabama football coach Bear Bryant

Process and habits >> goals. You need both, but you focus on the former.

“Though you soar like the eagle and make your nest among the stars, from there I will bring you down,” declares the Lord. – Obadiah 1:4

The power of these words. It’s no wonder they’ve outlasted empires.

Charisma is the ability to project confidence and love at the same time. – Naval

Naval the Twitter mensch.

“I wish it need not have happened in my time,” said Frodo.
“So do I,” said Gandalf, “and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

How appropriate in 2020.

All you’d be doing is ending his torment. You cannot punish him more than he punishes himself – Frenchie

I am seen. From the Amazon series, The Boys, recommended viewing for adults.

A wise man seeks the truth for he knows it will always find him. – Sergey Nazarov

Sergey founded Chainlink. Maybe he’s quoting someone, but I can’t find another source.

… there exists a great chasm between those, on one side, who relate everything to a single central vision … and, on the other side, those who pursue many ends, often unrelated and even contradictory … The first kind of intellectual and artistic personality belongs to the hedgehogs, the second to the foxes … – Isaiah Berlin

In these times, I desperately wish to be a hedgehog.

You’re not scared yet are you?
Not yet, but when I am, I shall master the fear.

From the show His Dark Materials, a more family friendly show.

Jonathan Blow shares some powerful, practical, personal advice on mental health

Since I know Jonathan as an indie game developer (an amazingly successful one), I didn’t have an expectation from this online talk he gave on self-motivation, mental health, and elements of stoicism.

It was very good. 10/10 would recommend. Some of my notes are below:

—

Key takeaway:
There are 3 aspects – Thoughts, Bodily sensations, Emotions
1. Thoughts – don’t identify too closely; stand back and watch them happen
2. Sensations – they’re fundamentally neutral; your mind interprets and amplifies, see thru this
3. Emotions – they tend to disappear instantly when you look at them

“You are not your thoughts. There’s a limit to how useful they can be”

How much do your thoughts weigh?

Your mind is interpreting and translating all of your experiences, doesn’t represent the totality or reality of what happened

Lots of everyday physical experience is imposed by the mind

Emotions don’t last long, but we can keep them burning for a long time with our thoughts and perceptions, even years

Was mild to moderately depressed in past, could have multi day episodes

Antidepressants are not well understood, unlike other western medicine, “science’s weaker medicines of last resort”

—

There’s an additional 1-hour Q&A which I haven’t watched yet.

John Street Capital’s fire analysis of bitcoin, stocks, and macroeconomics

I really enjoyed reading several of John Street Capital’s essays and wanted to save / share some excerpts from them. The two that stood out the most during my reading binge were Bitcoin & The Macro Environment, and FinTech: The 2020’s.

Excerpts:

We said QE turned your checking account into cash, your savings account into your checking account, the bond market into your savings account, the equity market into the bond market, the venture market into the equity market, and gave birth to the crypto market as a replacement for venture market risk.

The Fed established a number of novel facilities including the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, The Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility, The Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility, and The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility

If we look at Gold the Gold ETF’s raised $10.0bn in their first 3 years; and given the electronification of fund distribution coupled with the headline buzz around BTC we would envision a BTC ETF if approved outpacing that over a comparable time period

If we look over history some researchers will point to an average life expectancy of fiat currency of 27 years, while others will note an average lifetime of 40 years with a median lifespan of 25 years. Either way Bitcoin has crossed the 10-year market while the Euro has now been around for ~18 years.

Another way to think about BTC is “un-confiscatable wealth.” Offshore banking is a strong proxy for this market demand and it is estimated that $13-$20 trillion is held in offshore accounts. Using these numbers is how you can approach ~$1.0mn/BTC, although this market won’t gain much market share unless and until we see a sovereign nation attempt to confiscate wealth held in BTC and fail

The Diamond industry is a $90bn/year market that’s illiquid, opaque, with high friction, a high requirement of trust, and surprisingly limited “financialization” to date.

In our view you will continue to see Growth outperform Value as investors are discounting future cash flows at lower interest rates, while going out the risk curve even within the equity asset class itself chasing returns. We think tech stocks particularly those with high recurring revenue will continue to do well

One of the most attractive parts of Seed-Series A venture is regardless of macro environment they can only be bid up so much; and if a company goes on to IPO or sell in a meaningful way those differences are negligible