22 random learnings from 2022

1
As you become an adult, you realize that things around you weren’t just always there; people made them happen. But only recently have I started to internalize how much tenacity *everything* requires. That hotel, that park, that railway. The world is a museum of passion projects.
https://twitter.com/collision/status/1529452415346302976

2
…even up against powerful prescription medications like Adderall and Modafinil: sleep and all sport categories are in the top-10 for every metric, weightlifting and low-intensity exercise are ranked 1st and 2nd for “probability of having a positive effect”, and weightlifting is ranked 3rd for “probability of changing your life
https://troof.blog/posts/nootropics/

3
And so we began. At the time it felt like a fun project, but not any sort of life-changing decision. The big moments rarely do, I think, and the danger of retroactive mythologizing is that it makes people want to hold out for something dramatic, rather than throwing themselves into every opportunity.
from Sid Meier’s memoir

4
Today the CO2 exhalation of all machines greatly exceeds the exhalation of all animals and even approaches the volume generated by geological forces.
from Kevin Kelly’s What Technology Wants (I think)

5
When people look at Quentin Tarantino, they see a mad creative with a singular talent for making original movies. But Tarantino’s originality begins with imitation. He’s famous for replicating and building upon scenes from other movies, and he once said: “I steal from every single movie ever made.”
https://perell.com/essay/imitate-then-innovate/

6
This realignment would not be traditional right vs left, but rather land vs cloud, state vs network, centralized vs decentralized, new money vs old money, internationalist/capitalist vs nationalist/socialist, MMT vs BTC, and (perhaps most symbolically) Hamilton vs Satoshi
https://nakamoto.com/bitcoin-becomes-the-flag-of-technology/

7
Lessin’s five steps:
1. The Pre-Internet ‘People Magazine’ Era
2. Content from ‘your friends’ kills People Magazine
3. Kardashians/Professional ‘friends’ kill real friends
4. Algorithmic everyone kills Kardashians
5. Next is pure-AI content which beats ‘algorithmic everyone’
https://stratechery.com/2022/instagram-tiktok-and-the-three-trends/

8
The UN estimates that 5 African countries will be amongst the 10 most populated in the world by 2100:
-Nigeria
-the Democratic Republic of Congo
-Ethiopia
-Tanzania
-Egypt
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/10/for-world-population-day-a-look-at-the-countries-with-the-biggest-projected-gains-and-losses-by-2100/

9
Yes, prices would fall and keep falling as technology and a free market did away with a false construct of needing more growth to pay for prices that were only manipulated higher through money printing in the first place. With prices falling to their natural level, and on a path to free, the entire infrastructure required to support price inflation, which was only caused by ignoring the free market, will fall away.
View at Medium.com

10
AIs can be used to generate “deep fakes” while cryptographic techniques can be used to reliably authenticate things against such fakery. Flipping it around, crypto is a target-rich environment for scammers and hackers, and machine learning can be used to audit crypto code for vulnerabilities. I am convinced there is something deeper going on here. This reeks of real yin-yangery that extends to the roots of computing somehow
https://studio.ribbonfarm.com/p/the-dawn-of-mediocre-computing

11
Bitcoin is here to stay because it is cheap and easy to bring into existence. It is a networked phenomenon that emerges out of equal peers, not unlike electricity and the internet before it. The fear of Bitcoin ceasing to exist arises out of a deep misunderstanding of the nature of these phenomena. It is akin to asking: “What if electricity goes away?”
https://dergigi.com/2022/10/02/bitcoin-is-digital-scarcity/

12
most are just technical ways to reframe the problem: play it faster, play it slower, change the order, change the instruments, add repetition, remove repetition.…They never seem to discuss or argue over these changes, they just play it to see if it works.
https://medium.com/fluxx-studio-notes/10-lessons-in-productivity-and-brainstorming-from-the-beatles-ea14385e27a4

13
In 2020, EVs made up 5.6% of all new car sales in China. Last year, the proportion was over 13%. For 2022, the data shows that EVs will comprise roughly a quarter of all cars sold. This is a case study on how quickly a market can turn

14
In practice, the freakishly specific nature of the stuff ambitious kids have to do in high school is directly proportionate to the hackability of college admissions. The classes you don’t care about that are mostly memorization, the random “extracurricular activities” you have to participate in to show you’re “well-rounded,” the standardized tests as artificial as chess, the “essay” you have to write that’s presumably meant to hit some very specific target, but you’re not told what
http://www.paulgraham.com/lesson.html

15
…opportunity and optionality are often inversely correlated. The challenge is that the greatest rewards generally go to people who are tied down in certain ways. People can only become world-class at things they commit to. Ultimately, the more hesitant people are about making commitments, the higher the rewards are for people who do.
https://perell.com/essay/hugging-the-x-axis/

16
Tezuka himself was a strong admirer of Disney animation, as were many of Japan’s pioneer animators. Even today Japanese animators are strongly aware of American animation. But, virtually from the start, postwar Japanese animation has tended to go in a very different direction, not only in terms of its adult orientation and more complex story lines but also in its overall structure. It is important to emphasize the link between television and Japanese animation in terms of anime’s narrative structure and overall style…This serial quality was also reinforced by animation’s connection with the ubiquitous manga, which emphasized long-running episodic plots as well.

17
One of the best ways of accumulating emotion is to go as rapidly as possible from one take to the next. The actor begins the second take on the emotional level he reached at the end of the first take. Sometimes I don’t even cut the camera. I’ll say quietly, “Don’t cut the camera—everybody back to their opening positions and we’re going again. OK from the top: Action!”
http://www.sheilaomalley.com/?p=36326

18
I spent a morning on a Naha beach working out with Fumiyasu Yamakawa, a one-time banker. Every day at 4:30 a.m., he cycled to the beach, swam a half hour, ran a half hour, did yoga, and then met with a group of other Okinawan seniors who stood in a circle and laughed. “Why is that?” I asked. “It’s vitamin S,” he said. “You smile in the morning and it fortifies you all day long.”
From the book Blue Zones

19
The conservative who resists change is as valuable as the radical who proposes it — perhaps as much more valuable as roots are more vital than grafts. It is good that new ideas should be heard, for the sake of the few that can be used; but it is also good that new ideas should be compelled to go through the mill of objection and opposition; this is the trial heat which innovation must survive before being allowed to enter the human race
From the book Lessons of History

20
Lorecraft is clearly a strikingly millennial school of management thinking. All the thinkers who belong in this tradition are, as far as I can tell, between about 28-35 or so. They are firmly middle-of-the-pack millennials. Founders of startups who seem to practice a sort of management by lorecraft, such as Conor White-Sullivan of Roam Research, are also in this cohort.
https://studio.ribbonfarm.com/p/lands-of-lorecraft

21
That carbon dioxide in every exhale has weight, and we exhale more weight than we inhale. And the way the body loses weight isn’t through profusely sweating or “burning it off.” We lose weight through exhaled breath. For every ten pounds of fat lost in our bodies, eight and a half pounds of it comes out through the lungs; most of it is carbon dioxide mixed with a bit of water vapor. The rest is sweated or urinated out. This is a fact that most doctors, nutritionists, and other medical professionals have historically gotten wrong. The lungs are the weight-regulating system of the body.
From the book Breath (more highlights here)

22
Van Gogh was a prolific painter. For a while, he painted a painting every single day. He still only produced 900.
Gauguin: 516. Cezanne: 1300. Picasso: 1885
https://twitter.com/swombat/status/1488306608908259331

Latest version of Personal Bible + newly added content

I recently updated my personal bible and wanted to share the new content that was added.

Here’s the PDF download.

The Tail End

It turns out that when I graduated from high school, I had already used up 93% of my in-person parent time. I’m now enjoying the last 5% of that time. We’re in the tail end.

In high school, I sat around playing hearts with the same four guys about five days a week. In four years, we probably racked up 700 group hangouts. Now, scattered around the country with totally different lives and schedules, the five of us are in the same room at the same time probably 10 days each decade. The group is in its final 7%.

Living in the same place as the people you love matters. I probably have 10X the time left with the people who live in my city as I do with the people who live somewhere else.

Quality time matters. If you’re in your last 10% of time with someone you love, keep that fact in the front of your mind when you’re with them and treat that time as what it actually is: precious.

The Tail End

The Paradoxes of Modern Life

The Paradox of Writing: Great writing looks effortless. But because the ideas are so clear, casual readers don’t appreciate how much time it took to refine them.

The Paradox of Originality: Many of history’s greatest artists have found their voice by copying others. We discover who we are by imitating others and watching our uniqueness emerge over time.

The Paradox of Specificity: In the age of the Internet, when everybody has Google search and social media, differentiation is free marketing. The more specific your goal, the more opportunities you’ll create for yourself.

The Paradox of Strategy: The same things that help you achieve outlier success also increase your chances of outlandish failure. For example, investing with leverage increases your chances of risk and reward.

The Paradoxes of Modern Life

10 lessons from The Beatles

The first rule of improvisation (and brainstorming) is “yes… and”. When someone suggests an idea, plays a note, says a line, you accept it completely, then build on it. That’s how improvisational comedy or music flows. The moment someone says ‘no’, the flow is broken. As they slog through Don’t Let Me Down, George breaks the spell. Instead of building and accepting he leaps to judgement, saying “I think it’s awful.” Immediately, John and Paul lay down the rules: “Well, have you got anything?” “you’ve gotta come up with something better”.

But at other times, Paul, John and producer Glyn Johns keep at it: pouring out idea after idea. Some of them awful — see ‘Don’t be afraid’ below — but most are just technical ways to reframe the problem: play it faster, play it slower, change the order, change the instruments, add repetition, remove repetition.…They never seem to discuss or argue over these changes, they just play it to see if it works. They don’t judge the idea, they judge execution.

View at Medium.com

Random notes from podcasts, YouTube, tweets, and books

Here are notes in no particular order and with no particular focus, just random things I’ve learned and wanted to share, from all the content I’ve recently consumed.

David Perell with the mind bombs:

Ken McElroy on the Peak Prosperity podcast

  • Property taxes will rise; low hanging fruit and much needed revenue for cash-strapped governments
  • Plenty of opportunities during this recession: Airbnb and Uber were started in the last one
  • Believes campus real estate will be a great investment once universities begin to shutter or reduce their footprint

From the book Nature’s Mutiny:
The improvisational, free form of the essay, which Montaigne invented for himself, was the ideal vehicle for observations not only of the world around him but also of himself and his own thoughts, without pressing them into a fixed system or any grand thesis. For Montaigne, good questions were more important than good answers, and he was mainly interested in describing and understanding the fabric of his own life. “It is many years ago,” he wrote, “that I set myself as the only goal of my thinking and that I am not looking at anything or investigating anything but myself.”

I started using Quad9 as my primary DNS after reading this article:
The total winner of this test is Quad9. Blocking 96% of everything I tested in this review. All 12 phishing domains where block and only one malware domain did it let go through. Very impressive results!

Paul Stamets’s amazing YouTube talk on mycology and mushrooms:

  • Largest organism in world is mycelial network in E Oregon, 200 acres, 1 cell layer thick
  • Fungi generate soil
  • Stoned Apes theory: pre Homo sapiens 200k-2m years ago wandered plains hunting, found psychedelic mushrooms in poop of large mammals / prey, ate them, and stimulated neurogenesis
  • Takes psychedelic mushrooms 1-2x each year
  • Lions mane – stops / slows dementia, promotes neurogenesis
  • Interestingly low dose psilocybin led to faster behavior change in mice than high dose (the behavior change was to dissociate bells from shocks, to remove a learned fear response

From the BBC on why and how people disappear in Japan and start new lives:
In Japan, these people are sometimes referred to as “jouhatsu”. That’s the Japanese word for “evaporation”, but it also refers to people who vanish on purpose into thin air, and continue to conceal their whereabouts – potentially for years, even decades.

And finally, a great presentation for interested newbies on machine learning and the algorithms behind it.

…all mistakes mine! Til the next notes update!