We’re in transition – old world giving birth to new world; will last many years
Trade was de-politicized – made possible by collapse of Soviet Union – but that’s over now
Countries broke off to form sovereign states – Gorbachev was not strong leader, Yeltsin was drunk often
Western tide flowed east ward
When Putin took power, he started to fight back
He knew Russia couldn’t fight on population, but could on weaponry / technology – invested in this
Ukraine war marks limit of flow of the Western tide eastward
Now it’s an inter tidal period
May see situation similar to Korean Peninsula
More or less ceasefire, de facto partition that may last decades
Rise of China
Creates insecurity in Anglo Saxon world
Five Eyes (intelligence cooperative) used to be a very quiet – decided Huawei was great threat – gave joint media presentation – very unusual for an industry that’s always quiet, discreet
Xi Jinping likes to say “changes not seen in 100 years” – keeps repeating it
China’s US ambassador gave speech after retirement – “America’s ill will for China has no bottom line and underlying it is racism”
“Never fight a war you cannot win, never fight a protracted war”
It was a scripted speech – signal from China leadership
China is preparing for war not because it wants it – but to avoid it, you must prepare for it
Plan on basis that you can withstand all attacks – then there’ll be peace
3 domains of warfare that China’s worried about
1) Nuclear warfare – must have deterrent capability; US cannot prevail in South China Sea; several hundred is not enough, dependent on strategic submarines which is why South China Sea is so important; game going on there; China will increase warheads to 1K, have counter strike capability
2) Cyberspace – fight will be from outer space to underground; assume undersea cables can all be tapped; NASA has said China wants to take over the moon, China space industry making rapid progress
3) Every dynasty has had epidemics – China recorded over 300 epidemics; lots of experience to handle; traditional way to handle is lockdowns; during SARS China locked down and stopped it; even have lockdown procedures for harems and inner palace / princes!; Shanghai lockdown was traumatic but can’t be helped – it’s a rehearsal for something worse in the future
These are what XJP means by challenges not seen in 100 years
China thought could have working relationship with US – but now it’s “don’t assume they won’t attack”
China wants more time, they are growing stronger
US has not been this divided since Civil War – which was decided by violence
Greatest uncertainty in world today is US politics – every institution has been weaponized and politicized
Democrats may face defeat in midterms
For China the big issue is Taiwan
Basis of US-China relations starting with Nixon was based on one China
Every US admin thinks Taiwan is a card, but it’s not — it’s the whole basis
Deep state is committed multi year program to fight China – won’t change based on Democrats or Republicans
Singapore very reliant on US for weapons, finances – best bet is ASEAN; can hide behind ASEAN position
As trade minister, most important was ASEAN – stronger it is, the more Singapore has buffer
If Singapore + Indonesia are aligned, can have ASEAN agreement
Impressed by Indo’s G20 leadership now
Globalization has crested, it’s decoupling because strategically necessary
Every country must protect itself
Stormy period ahead