Wences Casares’s must read document about bitcoin

Wences is widely considered the OG of bitcoin adoption and evangelism in Silicon Valley circles. He bought and began making bitcoin’s case in 2011. Here’s his Wikipedia.

He wrote a 15 page PDF that he shared privately with friends and potential investors. Milk Road kindly published it here.

There were a few passages that I felt compelled to share. Highly recommend reading the whole thing to understand why bitcoin matters, and a practical recommendation for how to invest.

HIGHLIGHTS

To illustrate the power of these qualities, consider that today the only standard of value and settlement that the United States of America can be certain that The People’s Republic of China (PRC) will not discriminate access to, censor transactions from or dilute the value of is the Bitcoin Blockchain.

The only innovation of the Blockchain is its sovereignty, the only sovereign Blockchain so far is the Bitcoin Blockchain and the fuel that keeps it sovereign is the Bitcoin currency.

If Bitcoin succeeds it may be a global non-political standard of value and settlement. The world already has a global non-political standard of length in the meter, and a global non-political standard of weight in the kilo. Could you imagine a world in which we changed the length of the meter or the weight of the kilo regularly according to political considerations? Yet that is what we are doing with our standard of value.

However, the history of protocols is very different. Once a protocol gets established it almost never changes. For example, we are using IP (Internet Protocol, or just “the Internet” colloquially) for almost all transport of data (until the late 90s cisco routers used to route dozens of protocols, today they only route IP). We are using only one web protocol and only one email protocol. The email protocol, for example, is quite simple and limited.

Lecture notes – George Yeo – Geopolitics and Singapore, US, China

We’re in transition – old world giving birth to new world; will last many years

Trade was de-politicized – made possible by collapse of Soviet Union – but that’s over now
Countries broke off to form sovereign states – Gorbachev was not strong leader, Yeltsin was drunk often
Western tide flowed east ward
When Putin took power, he started to fight back
He knew Russia couldn’t fight on population, but could on weaponry / technology – invested in this

Ukraine war marks limit of flow of the Western tide eastward
Now it’s an inter tidal period
May see situation similar to Korean Peninsula
More or less ceasefire, de facto partition that may last decades

Rise of China
Creates insecurity in Anglo Saxon world
Five Eyes (intelligence cooperative) used to be a very quiet – decided Huawei was great threat – gave joint media presentation – very unusual for an industry that’s always quiet, discreet

Xi Jinping likes to say “changes not seen in 100 years” – keeps repeating it
China’s US ambassador gave speech after retirement – “America’s ill will for China has no bottom line and underlying it is racism”
“Never fight a war you cannot win, never fight a protracted war”
It was a scripted speech – signal from China leadership

China is preparing for war not because it wants it – but to avoid it, you must prepare for it
Plan on basis that you can withstand all attacks – then there’ll be peace

3 domains of warfare that China’s worried about
1) Nuclear warfare – must have deterrent capability; US cannot prevail in South China Sea; several hundred is not enough, dependent on strategic submarines which is why South China Sea is so important; game going on there; China will increase warheads to 1K, have counter strike capability
2) Cyberspace – fight will be from outer space to underground; assume undersea cables can all be tapped; NASA has said China wants to take over the moon, China space industry making rapid progress
3) Every dynasty has had epidemics – China recorded over 300 epidemics; lots of experience to handle; traditional way to handle is lockdowns; during SARS China locked down and stopped it; even have lockdown procedures for harems and inner palace / princes!; Shanghai lockdown was traumatic but can’t be helped – it’s a rehearsal for something worse in the future

These are what XJP means by challenges not seen in 100 years

China thought could have working relationship with US – but now it’s “don’t assume they won’t attack”

China wants more time, they are growing stronger

US has not been this divided since Civil War – which was decided by violence

Greatest uncertainty in world today is US politics – every institution has been weaponized and politicized

Democrats may face defeat in midterms

For China the big issue is Taiwan
Basis of US-China relations starting with Nixon was based on one China
Every US admin thinks Taiwan is a card, but it’s not — it’s the whole basis

Deep state is committed multi year program to fight China – won’t change based on Democrats or Republicans

Singapore very reliant on US for weapons, finances – best bet is ASEAN; can hide behind ASEAN position

As trade minister, most important was ASEAN – stronger it is, the more Singapore has buffer
If Singapore + Indonesia are aligned, can have ASEAN agreement
Impressed by Indo’s G20 leadership now

Globalization has crested, it’s decoupling because strategically necessary
Every country must protect itself

Stormy period ahead

Random things I’ve learned since the last time I shared random things I’ve learned

I try to save interesting quotes, anecdotes, snippets, that I want to review or reference later.

Here is a dump of them without sources, but exact copy-paste — for 99% you should be able to google exact search and find the source.

Don’t worry I didn’t make them up. But I could have.

ALL OF THE BELOW ARE FROM OTHER WRITERS, NOT MY WORDS (unless you find them really interesting, in which case I’m fine with mistaken attribution)

And despite all of this, we’re still in the dial-up era of blockchain. The real opportunities won’t start until we move into broadband.

The relationship between hero and Mentor is one of the most common themes in mythology, and one of the richest in its symbolic value. It stands for the bond between parent and child, teacher and student, doctor and patient, god  and man.

The tragedy of luxury beliefs is that, since they’re free, and since the non-elites aspire to eliteness, the beliefs themselves trickle down to the masses who can’t “afford” them. It’d be as if the masses bought a ton of expensive luxury products they didn’t need and became saddled with credit card debt. And since being high status means avoiding what the masses are doing, as soon as the masses adopt the luxury beliefs, the elites drop them. So elites accrue the short-term status benefit while the masses get hit with the long-term debt.

Bet you weren’t expecting corn to be one of the many culprits behind super humid summers! Corn sweat, or water vapor released from its leaves, can make humidity levels increase by up to 15%

Yet even in those rich countries in which the consumption of meat has reached new heights, such as Australia, Brazil, Canada, and the United States, it has led to no demonstrable ill effects on health. Spain is the best example: Since 1975, its average meat supply has more than doubled, peaking at 120 kg in 2002 before dropping back to today’s 100 kg. This rise in meat demand was accompanied by a decline in deaths from cardiovascular disease.

You are precisely as big as what you love and precisely as small as what you allow to annoy you.

Rap = Rhythm and Poetry

Argentines have developed a highly unusual relationship with their money.
They spend their pesos as quickly as they get them. They buy everything from TVs to potato peelers in installments. They don’t trust banks. They hardly use credit. And after years of constant price hikes, they are left with little idea of how much things should cost

Whenever a generous impulse arises in your mind – to give money, check in on a friend, send an email praising someone’s work – act on the impulse right away, rather than putting it off until later.

A lie that makes a voter feel good is more effective than a hundred rational arguments. That’s even true when the voter knows the lie is a lie.

To judge from the Google numbers, a Chicago-to-Honolulu move would be at least twice as effective as medication for your winter blues

Tocqueville Paradox (sociology): People’s expectations rise faster than living standards, so a society that becomes exponentially wealthier can see a decline in net happiness and satisfaction. There is virtually nothing people can’t get accustomed to, which also helps explain why there is so much desire for innovation and improvement

People like Picasso, whose work is conceptual, solidify their ideas before they start creating and tend to peak early. Meanwhile, people like Cézanne, whose work is experimental tend to discover things in the act of creation and peak later in their careers. When I visited Cézanne’s hometown of Aix-en-Provence in Southern France, I was struck by how terrible his early paintings were and how many times he painted Mount Sainte Victoire. He’d sit on a little cliff and paint the thing over and over and over again, each time discovering something new

Experts combing through the leaked user data determined that fewer than one percent of the female profiles on Ashley Madison had been used on a regular basis, and the rest were used just once — on the day they were created. On top of that, researchers found 84 percent of the profiles were male.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush
This medieval proverb comes from the sport of falconry, where the ‘bird in the hand’ (the preying falcon) was worth more than ‘two in the bush’ – the prey.

All true morality, inward and outward, is comprehended in love, for love is the foundation of all the commandments

Rhimes’ most popular heartthrobs all have something in common: Fitzwilliam Darcy, the romantic hero of Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice, is baked into their characters. If there’s one thing for which Rhimes has an eye, it’s a Darcy — an eligible, rich, handsome, unattainable man who seems like a jerk but is actually an awkward mensch just waiting for the right woman to turn his head

China has indeed made impressive science gains in recent years, it continues to suffer from multiple structural problems that hamper its goal of becoming a self-reliant innovation powerhouse. These include an imbalance between basic science research and technology development; a top-down approach that prioritizes Party control over effective S&T policy; and an inordinate, and often self-defeating, focus on quantitative indicators to measure performance

Award-winning painter, Georgia O’Keefe, suggests optimizing for your interests rather than your happiness:
“I do not like the idea of happiness — it is too momentary. I would say that I was always busy and interested in something — interest has more meaning to me than the idea of happiness.”

Some tv and movies

Here are some notes on recent tv shows and movies that I enjoyed

Star Wars: Visions on Disney Plus – I love this concept; take Star Wars’ almost limitless IP and let indie filmmakers go wild. The result is a series of animated shorts in an incredible variety of visual styles and story genres. It reminds me of a gentler, more uplifting Love Death and Robots. Within its 9 episodes are characters and stories that could become much more. In particular I liked episode 7, The Elder.

Resident Evil on Netflix – the show itself wasn’t so remarkable, but I really liked the female protagonist (Ella Balinska). She has this great mix of athleticism and vulnerability, and I think she’d be fantastic in that Angelina Jolie / Milla Jovovich action/adventure genre. Also I like anything zombies, and this show – as well as the recent movie Army of the Dead – both hint at an exciting potential evolution for the cliche zombie story: Make the zombies smart, show them in a hierarchical, evolving society, with impressive leaders, differing roles and strengths, internal social tensions. I Am Legend also hinted at this.

The Boys S3 on Amazon Prime – boys oh boys was it good. Each episode was a standalone movie. Twists galore. It really avoids the filler episodes that plague a lot of other multi-season shows. Writer producer Eric Kripke is just a boss. The lead actors have really settled into their roles, there’s great chemistry between them. The show leans into everything that makes it special — bloodier, grosser, weirder. Antony Starr (Homelander) is just off the charts acting. And I like anything with Karl Urban (Butcher), including the underrated Dredd.

Icarus documentary on Netflix – I only watched half, but talk about stumbling your way into the middle of (doping) history! I mention it here because it made me wonder if a pro-doping league (of any sport) could be MORE successful. Let athletes take whatever drugs they want, and have that be open and available to all participants. I bet it’d result in some very exciting games and lots of broken records. I think the overton window will slowly shift this way, because entertainment is about extremes, and we watch sports to see the limits of human potential and human drama. Doping enhances both. Lebron James claims to spend millions each year on his body, adopting the latest in science and supplementation and equipment with an army of world specialists to support. Is he natural? Where and how do you draw the line?

Some articles 3

Life at 40
https://www.harpersbazaar.com/culture/a40463065

I’m two years away from 40 and it’s true that the passage of time seems to accelerate as you age. 40 also reminds me of this beautiful sentence from a different article:

At 40, we’re no longer preparing for an imagined future life. Our real lives are, indisputably, happening right now. We’ve arrived at what Immanuel Kant called the “Ding an sich” — the thing itself.

A smart crypto critic
https://amycastor.com/2022/07/03/crypto-skeptics-step-up-lobbying-efforts-with-their-first-ever-conference

r/buttcoin has certainly picked up in activity and glee since the most recent crypto crash. I like to see what the critics and haters are saying because the best ones – such as Amy – share info and perspectives I would otherwise miss. But many – if not most – critics are against bitcoin and crypto for very personal reasons. And for those critics, I don’t understand why they would spend any of their limited time or energy or resources in this way. There’s not much to gain from it in a tangible sense, besides short-lived emotional rewards. Yet as I type that last sentence, I realize that much of what we’re motivated by is short-lived emotional rewards. Aren’t you glad you’re reading this

Learning calculus at 65
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/teaching-myself-calculus-at-sixty-five

I love the spirit of this post and would love to be actively learning and growing in such a conscious way at 65, 72, 89, whatever years I’m given. I love to read stories of people who go back to university in their 40s, or start a new business in their 50s, or move to a new country in their 60s, and so on. As Confucius says, 活到老,学到老.

Orwell on Hitler
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/george-orwell-s-1940-review-of-mein-kampf

In his own words:

Again, the situation in Germany, with its seven million unemployed, was obviously favourable for demagogues. But Hitler could not have succeeded against his many rivals if it had not been for the attraction of his own personality, which one can feel even in the clumsy writing of Mein Kampf, and which is no doubt overwhelming when one hears his speeches … The fact is that there is something deeply appealing about him
[…]
The initial, personal cause of his grievance against the universe can only be guessed at; but at any rate the grievance is here. He is the martyr, the victim, Prometheus chained to the rock, the self-sacrificing hero who fights single-handed against impossible odds. If he were killing a mouse he would know how to make it seem like a dragon. One feels, as with Napoleon, that he is fighting against destiny, that he can’t win, and yet that he somehow deserves to