The main character this cycle is clearly Trump; the rest — mostly crypto influencers — are leagues behind Trump in influence and reach, think Ansem (SOL & memecoins) and Pacman (Blast) — no shade to them, it’s just a different ballgame now
With Trump likely to win in November, and with JD Vance as his Veep, it’s clearly positive for crypto regulations; this will be a tailwind for all crypto assets, especially for any coin eligible for an ETF (ETH and maybe SOL), projects attacked by the SEC (Uniswap, Stacks, etc), and yield generating tokens (POS, Defi)
The Presidential election has and seems likely to continue dominating the global news cycle for the rest of 2024, and the only crypto asset likely to get significant attention is Bitcoin; the only other asset with remotely macro-political implications is ETH with its impending ETF launch, but it’s trivial in comparison
Institutional investors now dominate new flows; the only tokens that meet their liquidity and regulatory requirements — for now — are Bitcoin and maybe Ethereum and possibly if I squint Solana
You could make a weak case for AI-related tokens to get some macro-political attention (eg, Worldcoin)
This doesn’t mean pockets of crypto won’t do well, ie, infra L1/2/3/X’s always have a bridge to sell. Likely we’ll see one or more Dogecoin-level memes, and maybe 1-2 consumer apps getting their 15 minutes (like Polymarket).
But this is squarely Bitcoin’s cycle.