Tag: macro

This is Bitcoin’s cycle. Some thoughts on why

The main character this cycle is clearly Trump; the rest — mostly crypto influencers — are leagues behind Trump in influence and reach, think Ansem (SOL & memecoins) and Pacman (Blast) — no shade to them, it’s just a different ballgame now

With Trump likely to win in November, and with JD Vance as his Veep, it’s clearly positive for crypto regulations; this will be a tailwind for all crypto assets, especially for any coin eligible for an ETF (ETH and maybe SOL), projects attacked by the SEC (Uniswap, Stacks, etc), and yield generating tokens (POS, Defi)

The Presidential election has and seems likely to continue dominating the global news cycle for the rest of 2024, and the only crypto asset likely to get significant attention is Bitcoin; the only other asset with remotely macro-political implications is ETH with its impending ETF launch, but it’s trivial in comparison

Institutional investors now dominate new flows; the only tokens that meet their liquidity and regulatory requirements — for now — are Bitcoin and maybe Ethereum and possibly if I squint Solana

You could make a weak case for AI-related tokens to get some macro-political attention (eg, Worldcoin)

This doesn’t mean pockets of crypto won’t do well, ie, infra L1/2/3/X’s always have a bridge to sell. Likely we’ll see one or more Dogecoin-level memes, and maybe 1-2 consumer apps getting their 15 minutes (like Polymarket).

But this is squarely Bitcoin’s cycle.

Essay on China & macro, with Western narrative violations: “the notion that the world is deglobalizing would seem laughable to anyone living in Dubai, Singapore, São Paulo or Mumbai”

Source: https://research.gavekal.com/article/the-revenge-of-the-ottoman-empire/

My highlights:

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Back in 2017, the value of Chinese exports to Asean economies amounted to 60% of China’s exports to the US. Today, China’s exports to Southeast Asia stand at roughly 120% of China’s exports to the US.

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…from the early 2000s, global economic activity was massively boosted, not just by connecting China to the rest of the world, but also by connecting Chinese cities to each other, with all the associated construction of rail, air, road, telecommunications and power links this involved.

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key income “thresholds’’. For example, if the average income in a country is below US$1,000, nobody owns a television; when incomes move above US$1,000, almost everybody buys one. For smartphones, the level seems to be around US$2,500. For the automobile industry, the critical level seems to be US$10,000 a year. For university education, the level is US$15,000 and above. For financial products like life insurance, brokerage accounts and mutual funds, the level seems to be US$30,000.

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Today, the notion that the world is deglobalizing would seem laughable to anyone living in Dubai, Singapore, São Paulo or Mumbai. Rather, the world is going through a new wave of globalization, which is different from its predecessors. For the first time since Columbus sailed to the Americas (as Churchill said, “Christoper Columbus was the world’s first socialist: he didn’t know where he was going, he didn’t know where he was, and he did it all at taxpayers’ expense”), the world is experiencing a wave of globalization which does not require Western financiers, Western engineers, Western modes of transportation, Western currencies or Western technologies.

Notes from Jay Gould’s interview of Dr. Jeff Ross (bitcoin, medicine, macro)

Jeff Ross – Founder Vailshire investment fund
47yo

His Top 5 people (chats with / respects most?): Preston Pysh; American Hodl; Joe Carlosari; James Lavish; Mike Alfred; Swan bitcoin team (Cory, Alex)

Midwest kid

Biology major, Minnesota medical school, became board certified Radiologist (2008-2021)

Loved Rockies, moved to Colorado Springs in 2008

Not interested in school, but good grades
Failed handwriting in 2nd grade

Played tennis in HS and college

Founded Vailshire in 2013, started managing others $ in 2014 (two careers until he retired from medicine in 2021)
Did tele-radiology for a NY group for a few years

Got MBA in finance a few years ago, but wasn’t worth it

Started finance blog after med school, picked up by Motley Fool, also wrote for Seeking Alpha
Got inbound requests to manage money

Grew up poor and redneck

People scared to take first step

At some point bitcoin will clash with governments around the world

US gov weapon of choice is sanctions
US is socialist and centrally controlled

Game theory – which country will go first to start adopting and mining Bitcoin?

Nation states cannot stop bitcoin but can make life miserable for hodlers

Short-term bearish on bitcoin the currency but long-term wildly bullish
affected by Powell hawkish, Fed raising rates, risk-off environment
but long-term, will be more accepted and more ubiquitous year after year

Fed’s uncanny ability to do things at the wrong time

In low rate environments, growth companies do very well
conversely, during rising rates, value companies do better

Similar to Q4 2018 – Powell was new, began to tighten, stocks tanked, and he flipped, didn’t raise, became very accommodative

Fed true mandate is supporting stock and bond markets, and/or inflation

Will try to raise rates, maybe 2-4 times, but then markets tank, and Fed will be forced to change

Doesn’t believe in bitcoin’s 4-year price cycle

Gensler makes clear difference between bitcoin and altcoins
Holding spot ETF hostage to get exchanges cleaned up (KYC / AML)

GBTC 30% discount to NAV – but when spot ETF approved (thinks eoy 2022) – will get back to NAV on top of bitcoin return

Similar to Q4 2018, bitcoin dropped from 20K to 6K, and then a massive dump
Now expects will continue going down, sideways, down, and then something crushes everyones’ souls – $27K, but could go down to $15K

“Macro supersedes everything”

// Finished about half of the interview