Highlights from Google & Temasek report on SEA internet and tech

Full report here: https://kevinhabits.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/e_conomy_sea_2023_report.pdf

Some excerpts:

SEA-focused funds have seen significantly lower distributions to paid-in capital compared to funds that are focused on other regions, suggesting difficulty in realising returns for investors.

New sector growth: enterprise, healthtech, edtech, deeptech/AI, Web3/crypto, property, automotive, etc.

dry powder still growing though ($15.7B in 2022)

Consumers are adopting digital financial services (DFS) at a rapid pace; cash is no longer king.

High value users (HVUs) are defined as the top 30% of online spenders — HVUs spend more than 6X the amount non-HVUs spend online, and are more likely to increase spending over time

For non-HVUs who only purchase offline: lower prices, trust in the platform, and ease of use can change behaviour

Screenshot 2023 11 13 At 11.56.26 Am

How Bitcoin is the first digital religion: from rituals to saints to schisms

In some important ways, Bitcoin can be understood as an emerging religious movement. A newly-created, digital-native organized-religion for the 21st century.

Whether you like Bitcoin or hate it, you can probably agree that people in the space have an almost evangelic level of passion and fervor. Sometimes annoyingly so, as the existence of r/buttcoin proves.

The study of religious wisdom and religious traditions is an occasional hobby of mine, and though I’m not the first to suggest such a comparison (see for example David Phelps from 2021), I will try to extend the metaphor because there are useful insights to be gained by thinking about how the rise of Bitcoin resembles the rise of the world’s great organized religions.

Below, I enumerate some common properties of organized religions (borrowed from academic and pop culture sources – it’s neither thorough or exacting, and just a layman’s understanding). Then I provide some examples of how these properties apply to Bitcoin. For the sake of simplicity, I excluded other cryptocurrencies, though much of the below could apply to Ethereum and other projects too.

A worshipped founder / god-like head

Satoshi. Nuff said

Founding myths

The genesis block inscription: The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.
(Note too how the very first block is called the GENESIS block)

Rituals and observances

Examples include:

Bitcoin halving’s date (widely celebrated by most in the space)

Bitcoin pizza day

Twitter “laser eyes” as a form of ritual

The practice of self custody – “not your keys not your coins”, “get your coins off exchanges”

DCA and “just buy bitcoin” — you could argue that the act of buying bitcoin and regularly checking its price is like a form of prayer. There’s even the meme / hope of a “God candle”

Pilgrimage

This one isn’t so obvious to me — perhaps visiting Bitcoin Beach in El Salvador is a form of bitcoin pilgrimage? Bitcoin conferences and meetups?

Catechisms / prayers

The many memes:

“Just buy bitcoin”

“Bitcoin fixes this”

HODL

WAGMI

HFSP

“Buy the dip”

Worship spaces

Traditional religions congregate offline; the digital religion that is Bitcoin congregates online over X/Twitter, Discord, Telegram, and so forth

Evangelism

Bitcoin has an almost unparalleled ability to turn hodlers into outspoken promoters. For many, it’s purely the profit motive speaking, but for some, there is a sincere belief that the old fiat system is broken (“hell”) and Bitcoin is the promised land (“heaven”). Bitcoin fixes this, where this = everything.

A book / writings

Satoshi’s original Bitcoin Whitepaper

All of Satoshi’s other writings, from forum posts to now public emails; there’s even a cottage industry of people analyzing and interpreting Satoshi’s words, kinda like crypto exegesis

Saints / heroes

Core devs

Plenty of hero-villain dynamics including Roger Ver, Gavin Newsom, Mike Hearn

Michael Saylor

Any famous figure who says something positive, especially if they converted from a prior negative stance, like Larry Fink

Institutions

This one is quite obvious and one of the strongest aspects of the entire movement, from miners to exchanges to wallets to developers to investment funds etc

There is another interesting angle which is corporate and nation state adoption, a la El Salvador’s Bitcoin standard, an echo of something like Constantine’s conversion to and adoption of Christianity

Extremism (and the culture of schisms / forks)

Bitcoin Maxi culture

Only using bitcoin to live, or putting all your savings into bitcoin

I explored the topic of forks almost 4 years ago: https://kevinhabits.com/before-bitcoin-forks-there-were-many-many-religion-forks/ and some of it holds up

A devil / an enemy

Could include everything from Ethereum & altcoins (maxi culture), to tradfi institutions (Wall Street and the banks), to governments and regulatory bodies (SEC), to specific individuals (Agustin Carstens, Jpow), to simple nonbelievers (“have fun staying poor” targets)

Salvation / the promised land / heaven

God candles

WAGMI vibes

Bitcoin surpassing its competitors (its enemies), from gold’s market cap, to the market cap of individual fiat currencies (especially the USD)

A world denominated in sats

Bitcoin Citadels

The above is a stub of sorts in the sense that I’ll be adding to and fiddling with it as I learn new things and think more deeply on this topic.

In a future essay, I’ll try to apply stories and learnings from organized religions to help us predict Bitcoin’s future and how Bitcoin may evolve from here.

Evan Osnos latest essay on China: “To a degree I’ve rarely encountered, many asked to have their identities disguised”

Highly recommend if you have any interest in China. Below are a few excerpts plus an occasional personal aside: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/30/chinas-age-of-malaise

EXCERPTS:

The embodiment of this reversal is Xi Jinping, the General Secretary and President, who has come to be known among the Party rank and file by a succinct honorific: the Core.

I think about Yeats: Turning and turning in the widening gyre, The falcon cannot hear the falconer…

a leak from a Chinese social-media site last year revealed that it blocks no fewer than five hundred and sixty-four nicknames for him, including Caesar, the Last Emperor, and twenty-one variations of Winnie-the-Pooh.

564 nicknames is a whole lot of cat-and-mouse

China is as formidable as ever: it is the largest trading partner for more than a hundred and twenty countries, it is home to at least eighty per cent of the supply chain for solar panels, and it is the world’s largest maker of electric vehicles

…and I fully expect in 10 years (or earlier), China will have pole position in semiconductors too, regardless of the West’s restrictive efforts

I was surprised how often they spoke about Xi without uttering his name—a single finger flicked upward can suffice—because the subject is at once ubiquitous and unsafe. (To a degree I’ve rarely encountered, many asked to have their identities disguised)

Even standup comics are forced to submit videos of jokes for advance approval

China’s advance approval or the West’s fear of cancellation, sometimes censorship can look like a circle…

At his core, a longtime observer told me, Xi is “Mao with money.”

The most troublesome thing in China is that the open-mindedness—the ability to learn—has come to a halt. For forty years, we learned things, and then people concluded that China was formidable and capable, that the East is rising and the West is declining, that China is already a big boss in the world. And so we stopped learning. But, in reality, we haven’t even established a society with a conscience.

This is a broader psycho-behavioral trait in human beings I think, in that winners get overconfident and soft (good times breed weak men sorta thing), and applies equally to America/Americans, though America’s recent internal struggles with social conflict and political extremism and COVID are leading to a new degree of self-reflection that I think ultimately beneficial

a thirty-one-year-old former factory worker named Luo Huazhong posted a photo of himself in bed, with the caption “Lying flat is my sophistic act,” he said, professing solidarity with the philosopher Diogenes, who is said to have protested the excesses of Athenian aristocrats by living in a barrel

In July, the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that youth unemployment had hit a record high of twenty-one per cent, nearly twice the rate four years earlier. Then the bureau stopped releasing the numbers. Zhang Dandan, an economics professor at Peking University, published an article arguing that the true rate might be as high as forty-six per cent, because she estimated that up to sixteen million young people have temporarily stopped looking for jobs in order to lie flat

I don’t see much of this when I visit big cities like Shanghai; then again, when I visit Tokyo it’s not like I see hikikomori or “grass eaters” either

If they give you your phone at night, everything is going to be O.K.—they just want to talk to you,” he said. “You can WeChat your wife or your mistress.” But, if investigators keep your phone from you, the odds are you are a target, not a source.

Xi is said to have spoken bitterly of watching Boris Yeltsin contend with Russian tycoons in the nineteen-nineties. Joerg Wuttke told me, “When Putin entered the Kremlin in 2000, he assembled the oligarchs and said, basically, You can keep your money, but if you go into politics you’re done.”

But Xi, a Marxist-Leninist at his core, said last fall that state-owned enterprises would “get stronger, do better, and grow bigger.”

I think the American parallel for China’s SOEs is the metastasizing bureaucracy; China SOEs = American federal agencies

ancient expression—“shi, nong, gong, shang”—which describes a hierarchy of social classes: scholar-officials, farmers, craftsmen, and merchants

Hmm…merchants make all the money, and money seems upstream of power in all kinds of modern government systems. And I’m always amused by farmer-virtue-signaling, where Chinese farmers (in the US, replace with “factory worker”) receive superficial respect but are given none of the things that really matter, like financial security or political power.

When the zero-COVID policy was finally abandoned, the following month, the change was so abrupt that at least a million people died in a matter of weeks, according to independent analyses; the state stopped publishing cremation statistics.

Read the full thing and let me know what you think!

Worldview altering Erik Prince podcast (did you know only 3% of all American colonists fought in the Revolution?)

The whole interview is very long and may not be your political cup of tea, but there were multiple 🤯🤯🤯 moments for me, shared by someone with many decades of hard won first hand experience and a clear love for America and American values.

Below are a few of my takeaways. I was too focused on listening to take better notes.

Only 3% of all Americans took up arms in the Revolution. 30% of colonists were for independence, 30% were neutral, and 40% supported the crown — so more actually supported Britain. Never underestimate a small & passionate & coordinated group to change the world…

In the Wild West, the Pinkertons (a private security force) at their height were 6x larger than the US army; they effectively ran things

Largely unchecked growth in the modern American bureaucracy is a result of a 1984 Supreme Court ruling that effectively gave government agencies the “force of law”; thus bureaucrats could create regulations and enforce them as if they were laws (I want to research this more)

During WW2, Russia lost 22m people, while the US only lost 400k; in fact Russia lost more in a single battle than the US did in the whole war…for me, it just puts into perspective that when it comes to global war, and particularly war on the Eurasian landmass, America is usually the proverbial egg in a bacon-and-eggs breakfast

Countless other moments, including on China, Ukraine-Russia, Trump…embedding part 1 below: