Podcast notes – Peter Thiel on Uncommon Knowledge – “When do we go from wisdom of crowds to madness of crowds?”

Peter Thiel – Stanford + Stanford Law, PayPal cofounder, first Facebook investor

No ticker tape parades in NYC for individuals in 21st century – now it’s for groups like “healthcare professionals”, before it was for individuals like Charles Lindbergh

Prevailing view is heterodox thought no longer allowed, scared of putting individuals on pedestal

Believes in classic libertarian values – but it can be somewhat cowardly way of saying you’re a loser, you wanna be left alone
Acceptable for him to support Ron Paul for president, much more dangerous to support Donald Trump

When do we go from wisdom of crowds to madness of crowds?

If you win 99% of election, you’re in North Korea – you haven’t arrived at absolute truth but you’re in an insane totalitarian place

West has 2 philosophical traditions – Greco Roman and Judeo Christian

Covid – all kinds of things were asserted too dogmatically – and took hairpin turns

Science fights 2 front war against excess skepticism and excess dogmatism
Science thinks of itself as more fighting against dogmatism – “choose your enemies well because you’ll soon be like them” – now “science” can seem like a dogma, post-modern

Case of Jay Bhattacharya – example of sheer insanity – tenured Stanford professor, libertarian and heterodox thinker
He wrote article saying “there’s no high quality studies that prove wearing masks is effective” – triggered people, crazed campus reaction
Nuanced nature made it dangerous – supposed to think in clean bright line ideological terms
If you’re not allowed to say something, he has suspicion that not only should you say it, it’s simply true

Fauci: “When people criticize me, they’re really criticizing science because I represent science”
Science has become quite opposite from the exploration, open-debate that it should be
Real science doesn’t need to be called “science” – real chemistry, physics, etc – but eg “climate science” is like a tell in poker, exaggerating because it’s not quite there
Science with capital S seems like antonym of science lower case S

20 years of telling ourselves lies about Afghanistan – that it’s going wonderful, we’re nation building, form of epistemic closure
Believes Trump had a fundamentally correct view of Afghanistan – Trump said “Afghanistan is a shit country” – not rigorous or nice thing to say, but “when you limit yourselves to saying something that’s very nice, you can’t actually talk about anything at all”

Political correctness as misdirected form of politeness

Saying anything you want to — but remain civil

Fed Reserve
Inflation is common sense and everyone can see it – gas bill, grocery bill
Another case of epistemic closure – Fed seemed like last institution to register that inflation was accelerating
One of our most sacred institutions

MMT – everyone’s gravitated towards it at precise moment it should be questioned and challenged
Economics risks being very politicized – can twist the answers and go in strange direction
Not very precise a science, but when you violate everything, things will eventually go wrong

The hour is late for fiat money – clear signal is Bitcoin / Satoshi Nakamoto
Bitcoin is revolutionary anti-fiat money thing, a late warning like Trump’s warning on Afghanistan

Broken market
Fed buying all the bonds
Inflation showing up in assets, crypto, art, stocks, bonds
If inflation is 6% and rates are 0%, that’s still 6% confiscation of your cash / earnings

Davos – he stopped attending – people are only there as representatives of corporations and governments – it hit him that there are no real individuals in the room
Davos as sense of global government, participate as part of larger structure
Wisdom of crowds – center left politically correct thing
Not a truth seeking place, not maximum surface area of debate
It’s a world with no dissenting views
Doesn’t believe we’re at end of history

China
Ray Dalio says it’s like family with strict parents
He frames China since 2013 as Putin is positive role model (vs when they used to believe Soviet Union was a negative role model)
China works for one individual – Mr. Xi
Doesn’t work for anyone else anymore
Jack Ma as remarkable example
Tech companies have been clobbered
No individuals allowed, no wealthy people allowed
Back to totalitarian playbook
Quite different from China in 70s, 80s
China like much worse version of Japan – for many decades it had great model of copying and catching up, and then hit the wall – China seems like stranger more dysfunctional version of Japan
For most part, China has not overtaken us
2021 – feels like China has gone haywire, more Marxist economy, totalitarian escalation
Friend said “Xi as best thing happening to West”

Why are we in such a collectivist moment (in America)?
Something went wrong, not an idiosyncratic thing, symptomatic of bigger problem
Should have ticker tape parade for Satoshi – so much healthier sign for country – just symbolic but symbols are important

Is renewable possible? Or is it just historic decline
He believes it’s not historicism, inevitable trends – it’s individuals that matter

Advice to new grads:
Can start companies
Shortage of talent in government
Society feels increasingly on auto-pilot — but he would take opposite bet

Random things I’ve learned since the last time I shared random things I’ve learned

I try to save interesting quotes, anecdotes, snippets, that I want to review or reference later.

Here is a dump of them without sources, but exact copy-paste — for 99% you should be able to google exact search and find the source.

Don’t worry I didn’t make them up. But I could have.

ALL OF THE BELOW ARE FROM OTHER WRITERS, NOT MY WORDS (unless you find them really interesting, in which case I’m fine with mistaken attribution)

And despite all of this, we’re still in the dial-up era of blockchain. The real opportunities won’t start until we move into broadband.

The relationship between hero and Mentor is one of the most common themes in mythology, and one of the richest in its symbolic value. It stands for the bond between parent and child, teacher and student, doctor and patient, god  and man.

The tragedy of luxury beliefs is that, since they’re free, and since the non-elites aspire to eliteness, the beliefs themselves trickle down to the masses who can’t “afford” them. It’d be as if the masses bought a ton of expensive luxury products they didn’t need and became saddled with credit card debt. And since being high status means avoiding what the masses are doing, as soon as the masses adopt the luxury beliefs, the elites drop them. So elites accrue the short-term status benefit while the masses get hit with the long-term debt.

Bet you weren’t expecting corn to be one of the many culprits behind super humid summers! Corn sweat, or water vapor released from its leaves, can make humidity levels increase by up to 15%

Yet even in those rich countries in which the consumption of meat has reached new heights, such as Australia, Brazil, Canada, and the United States, it has led to no demonstrable ill effects on health. Spain is the best example: Since 1975, its average meat supply has more than doubled, peaking at 120 kg in 2002 before dropping back to today’s 100 kg. This rise in meat demand was accompanied by a decline in deaths from cardiovascular disease.

You are precisely as big as what you love and precisely as small as what you allow to annoy you.

Rap = Rhythm and Poetry

Argentines have developed a highly unusual relationship with their money.
They spend their pesos as quickly as they get them. They buy everything from TVs to potato peelers in installments. They don’t trust banks. They hardly use credit. And after years of constant price hikes, they are left with little idea of how much things should cost

Whenever a generous impulse arises in your mind – to give money, check in on a friend, send an email praising someone’s work – act on the impulse right away, rather than putting it off until later.

A lie that makes a voter feel good is more effective than a hundred rational arguments. That’s even true when the voter knows the lie is a lie.

To judge from the Google numbers, a Chicago-to-Honolulu move would be at least twice as effective as medication for your winter blues

Tocqueville Paradox (sociology): People’s expectations rise faster than living standards, so a society that becomes exponentially wealthier can see a decline in net happiness and satisfaction. There is virtually nothing people can’t get accustomed to, which also helps explain why there is so much desire for innovation and improvement

People like Picasso, whose work is conceptual, solidify their ideas before they start creating and tend to peak early. Meanwhile, people like Cézanne, whose work is experimental tend to discover things in the act of creation and peak later in their careers. When I visited Cézanne’s hometown of Aix-en-Provence in Southern France, I was struck by how terrible his early paintings were and how many times he painted Mount Sainte Victoire. He’d sit on a little cliff and paint the thing over and over and over again, each time discovering something new

Experts combing through the leaked user data determined that fewer than one percent of the female profiles on Ashley Madison had been used on a regular basis, and the rest were used just once — on the day they were created. On top of that, researchers found 84 percent of the profiles were male.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush
This medieval proverb comes from the sport of falconry, where the ‘bird in the hand’ (the preying falcon) was worth more than ‘two in the bush’ – the prey.

All true morality, inward and outward, is comprehended in love, for love is the foundation of all the commandments

Rhimes’ most popular heartthrobs all have something in common: Fitzwilliam Darcy, the romantic hero of Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice, is baked into their characters. If there’s one thing for which Rhimes has an eye, it’s a Darcy — an eligible, rich, handsome, unattainable man who seems like a jerk but is actually an awkward mensch just waiting for the right woman to turn his head

China has indeed made impressive science gains in recent years, it continues to suffer from multiple structural problems that hamper its goal of becoming a self-reliant innovation powerhouse. These include an imbalance between basic science research and technology development; a top-down approach that prioritizes Party control over effective S&T policy; and an inordinate, and often self-defeating, focus on quantitative indicators to measure performance

Award-winning painter, Georgia O’Keefe, suggests optimizing for your interests rather than your happiness:
“I do not like the idea of happiness — it is too momentary. I would say that I was always busy and interested in something — interest has more meaning to me than the idea of happiness.”

Dreams

Lately I’ve been having dreams so vivid and intense that it takes me a few moments upon waking to realize it was indeed a dream. The disorientation can last through the morning, a kind of Matrix-like fugue state where I’m not sure which world is more real.

Until I drink my first cup of coffee, anyway. Actually. I don’t even drink coffee in the morning, I drink this overpriced red powder called Tianchi. I’m kinda addicted to it, but it makes me feel great. The energy is smoother than coffee. It’s *supposed* to be healthy. I hoard it like an Asian mom hoards plastic bags.

Back to the dreams. The more stressful / tiring the day, the more likely I’ll have intense dreams. Especially if the day was full of novel situations, learning something new, being someplace new, meeting someone new.

When I was younger, I often found myself wanting to re-live the dreams, to be inside them. There was something magical and absurd and full of life. But now, I usually find myself wanting to leave my dreams. Just wanting some nice quiet blank slumber. The dreams feel more like exhausting fire drills, not energizing fairytale wanderings.

What else…not much on my mind…except the boba shop. Re-opening in a few days. And hoping crypto rebounds, but that may not happen until next year or even 2024. Paying a lot of attention to Japan and Europe right now, as well as the rising political instability in emerging markets.

Opening a boba shop

I’ve spent the last month trying to buy a boba shop in mid-Wilshire from its current owner. Although we didn’t close the acquisition, I worked out a deal to take over the shop for 6 months as a kind of trial for both sides. Though we won’t change the store name, there’s latitude to change most other things.

I spent yesterday and will spend today learning to make drinks and observing the owner at her second store in north LA. It’s both fun and tiring. At this age, the energy and enthusiasm don’t come as easily as they used to. But it’s been a bucket list sort of thing to run my own brick and mortar business(es), and this is a small first step.

My respect for these owners and operators grows with every passing hour. The margins are slim, the rules and regs seem endless, and the operations are a constant juggling act of trying to catch the falling ball. But it’s also fun to interact with customers and make tasty drinks and be so physically involved. It’s satisfying in a different way from my usual sitting behind a computer screen commanding keyboard armies.

I’m excited to experiment with different changes to the marketing and the menu over time. In particular to integrate NFTs and maybe make some TikToks.

Starting this Thursday you can come visit, it’s the Lucky Leaf on Wilshire and La Brea. Or give me a heads up first to make sure I’m there.

Some tv and movies

Here are some notes on recent tv shows and movies that I enjoyed

Star Wars: Visions on Disney Plus – I love this concept; take Star Wars’ almost limitless IP and let indie filmmakers go wild. The result is a series of animated shorts in an incredible variety of visual styles and story genres. It reminds me of a gentler, more uplifting Love Death and Robots. Within its 9 episodes are characters and stories that could become much more. In particular I liked episode 7, The Elder.

Resident Evil on Netflix – the show itself wasn’t so remarkable, but I really liked the female protagonist (Ella Balinska). She has this great mix of athleticism and vulnerability, and I think she’d be fantastic in that Angelina Jolie / Milla Jovovich action/adventure genre. Also I like anything zombies, and this show – as well as the recent movie Army of the Dead – both hint at an exciting potential evolution for the cliche zombie story: Make the zombies smart, show them in a hierarchical, evolving society, with impressive leaders, differing roles and strengths, internal social tensions. I Am Legend also hinted at this.

The Boys S3 on Amazon Prime – boys oh boys was it good. Each episode was a standalone movie. Twists galore. It really avoids the filler episodes that plague a lot of other multi-season shows. Writer producer Eric Kripke is just a boss. The lead actors have really settled into their roles, there’s great chemistry between them. The show leans into everything that makes it special — bloodier, grosser, weirder. Antony Starr (Homelander) is just off the charts acting. And I like anything with Karl Urban (Butcher), including the underrated Dredd.

Icarus documentary on Netflix – I only watched half, but talk about stumbling your way into the middle of (doping) history! I mention it here because it made me wonder if a pro-doping league (of any sport) could be MORE successful. Let athletes take whatever drugs they want, and have that be open and available to all participants. I bet it’d result in some very exciting games and lots of broken records. I think the overton window will slowly shift this way, because entertainment is about extremes, and we watch sports to see the limits of human potential and human drama. Doping enhances both. Lebron James claims to spend millions each year on his body, adopting the latest in science and supplementation and equipment with an army of world specialists to support. Is he natural? Where and how do you draw the line?