Some articles 2

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/movies/janeane-garofalo.html

Interesting take on Janeane Garofalo’s career, and how she may have sacrificed some mainstream success because of a distaste for “selling out”. I’ve always liked her style of dry witty kinda dark humor. Sarah Silverman is like the R-rated Janeane. Now I want to go to Brooklyn and watch one of her standups. Here’s a Janeane Garofalo joke I found on the internet:

Listen, young people, I understand narcissism – clearly. But at least I have the decency to hate myself. And that’s what’s missing from the young people. They don’t have the debilitating self-loathing and the second guessing.

https://twitter.com/address_eth/status/1549818088396406784

Crypto/web3/blockchain is a new internet. And a new internet needs a native naming and address system. There are two such systems I like: ENS (.eth names) and HNS (Handshake tlds/). They are compatible systems, though that’s not initially obvious. ENS has the growth and momentum right now. But Handshake has the potential to completely re-wire the internet naming system for the better, helping us move away from trusted third parties and bureaucratic capture, towards self-custody and greater programmability and user choice. Not investment advice blah blah

https://www.exponentialview.co/email/3ec31bca-1d2c-438c-831e-ad1d0341f8d7

Global warming is real, but is it entirely (or even mostly) man-made? Recently I’ve been reading Bjorn Lomborg’s work and it’s opening my sleepy eyes. I assume global warming is at least partially man-made, but to what extent, and whether it warrants such wholesale investments in new policies, regulations, and business practices — that I don’t know. ESG feels increasingly like a boondoggle. Maybe I’m just getting old.

https://twitter.com/AtifRMian/status/1549782314829357056

Turkey. Sri Lanka. Argentina. Now Pakistan. We are seeing the cresting tides of a global sovereign debt crisis, and unlike 1997, the American-led world order is far more hamstrung in its ability to help. America is dealing with record high levels of consumer inflation, government debt, and political polarization. And since Obama, it’s steadily retreated from its role as the world’s policeman. Who watches the watchmen?

Some articles

https://www.tubefilter.com/2022/07/14/youtube-tiktok-time-spent-kids-2021

Kids (4-18) are spending more time on TikTok than YouTube. This gap has grown in recent years. I watch TikTok sometimes and can attest to its addiction. TikTok is FAST and once you adjust to it, you don’t wanna return to slow. On a tangential note, I quite like Netflix’s playback speed feature. I play most movies and TV shows at 1.25x now, and will watch more Netflix on my laptop than my “smart TV” because the smart TV lacks that feature.

https://www.quantamagazine.org/june-huh-high-school-dropout-wins-the-fields-medal-20220705

39yo June Huh won the Fields Medal. In high school he dropped out to become a poet. I see in his story further evidence of the deep unity within all knowing. Many years ago a friend and I were discussing the idea that we could live in a simulation. To which he replied, “If we’re living in a simulation, then math is the operating system”.

https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/is-bitcoin-an-inflation-hedge-yes

Nothing groundbreaking here, but I enjoy Nik’s newsletter. And I re-iterate my base case that bitcoin will hit $1M before 2030. After which, it will crash to something like $200K, and the naysayers and critics will be in oestrus, and the cycle will repeat.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/11/well/family/check-in-text-friendship.html

After reading this (and I had to find a roundabout way to read it because I don’t pay for the NYT and had reached my limit of free articles), I emailed two friends from college and (surprisingly) they replied rather quickly. I will try to do this more often – maybe even create an explicit habit out of it.

Podcast notes – Agustin Lebron (Jane Street trader) on Lunar Society

Guest: Agustin Lebron – author of book Laws of Trading

The more you trade the more you realize how hard it is to do well

Studied engineering in college
Former chip designer, online poker player
Went into finance – Jane Street

Recently started a crypto company – building protocol to improve crypto trading

Finance – jobs are more fungible, harder to explain why you work at a specific firm since most jobs are similar and primarily money-driven

If you want to be a trader, implicitly you’re saying you care most about money
But a lot of the job is having inherent curiosity about many things, and about enjoying game for its own sake

Jane Street would select against people with prior retail trading experience

Concept of domain is narrower than people understand it to be – Robinhood trading is even more different than you think of trading at a market maker, or a hedge fund

Takes 6-18 months to train a trader to be net-positive
Jane Street was mostly Socratic method – sit with senior trader and learn at desk
Now there’s more structured training, learning an iterative thinking process

Most common failure mode in tech hiring is hiring too much for skills, instead of for potential
One of best hiring arbitrages is to “go more junior” – hire younger and earlier in careers

Agustin wants to find smartest 0.1% of high school students around world – put them into bootcamps for 6 months, learn useful skills, provide high skill jobs to graduates
This could be a trillion dollar business

SBF @ FTX – Future Fund to scout for this kind of talent

Intelligence (“G” factor) strongly predicts outcomes across jobs, industries
Why brainteasers so common in tech hiring – proxy for IQ (even though explicit IQ testing for hiring is illegal in the US)
Great example – Wonderlic test for football

For job candidates:
One of most important things you can do is select your coworkers
During hiring, get good at evaluating your interviewers too

Sheepskin effect – last semester of college boosts earnings vastly more – because of signaling / certification

San Diego tech cos love to hire Intuit employees with 2-3 years experience, because Intuit does great training – but you don’t see the really good employees that Intuit retained

If Agustin was a regulator – would ban leveraged ETFs, further regulate all the volatility products

// Stopped ~45% of the way thru

Podcast notes – Ujwal Velagapudi (SMB buyer, vending machine biz) – Acquiring Minds podcast

Guest: Ujwal Velagapudi
Podcast: Acquiring Minds

Hometown – suburbs of Detroit (he’s 30-ish)

Bought and sold a dozen cars on CraigsList (CL) while in HS / college
Always made a profit, and learned negotiation and hustling through it

Commercial building for sale on CL – seemed a great deal, 75yo seller owner / occupier
Fire damaged red brick building – 7 Mile in Van Dyke
Was a year out of college
Did entire lease + purchase agreement (PA) himself
Grew this commercial portfolio to 12 units – mixed use, light industrial – at this point was earning ~$5K/mo

Still had day job – supply chain management in aerospace, quit in 2018
But always interested in passive income

Then explored SMBs – pizza, night club – all on CL – spent a lot of time on deals but they all fell through
Finally saw a bar for sale – near Red Wings stadium – rich history, but the arena was being demolished and relocated
Had been bartender in college, even though he didn’t drink
75 seat bar, no kitchen, did some food trucks + temp chefs – $100-200K gross, 1 full-time bartender
Put in LOI, 4 days later had a signed agreement + down payment
Purchasing by himself – knowing it was mostly for his education – “wasn’t for the money”
Hired completely new team eg bartenders – also on CL
Ultimately couldn’t extend the lease, owners wanted him to leave so they could demo the building
Was initially there every day after his 9-5 job – slowed over time
Owned it for 1.5 years, then liquidated everything he could

Also on CL – saw a gym for sale – Snap Fitness, hot gym in area
Personally loved sports, exercise
Bought with cash for $75K – closed deal in 3.5 weeks – was making $50K (so 1.5x multiple), but LA Fitness had just moved in next door
2900 sf, prime downtown location in small Detroit suburb, yoga studio, tanning bed, weight lifting
24/7, keycard
Sold for 2.5x purchase price to his gym manager – had started as a customer, became assistant GM and then GM for him, and eventually bought it over
Always prioritized happiness and efficiency over maximizing profits, outsourced a lot of work, used tech as much as possible (video cams, PoS, DocuSign, etc)
Only spent 10 hours total in that gym – managed it like it didn’t rely on him, relied heavily on financials / reports instead of micro managing

Bought an ecomm business – Amazon FBA selling hats, bags, gloves – negotiated the heck out of it, thought he got a good deal
Offered $180K, $90K down ($500K revenues?) – was a well-known online brokerage
Then he discovered it had a lien, because seller took loan from Amazon which was automatically deducted from earnings
Seller tried to hijack the account, got FBI involved
Seller was a felon with drug issues
Took a big hit, ultimately liquidated it on EmpireFlippers (good experience)

In 2018, multiple income streams, quit full-time job, spent a few months in Thailand, had gone for an entrepreneurship conference
Spent a few months on the beach, 4 hour work week, but “it was so boring”

Increasingly difficult to find good M&A deals on Craigslist – back then there was a lot of misclassified deals, 80 year old sellers
Now brokers are picking off everything, sellers more sophisticated, marketplaces more fragmented (eg, FB marketplace)

After ecomm, purchased minority ownership in consulting business for niche insurance software
Moved to Texas for it, 20 year old company, was acquired by Oracle
Had monopoly in a very niche business as systems integrator
But covid hit and really hurt business
Oracle refused to sell it back to him
Wasn’t able to compete with new startups

HiByron
MicroAcquire – saw a promising target, LOI in a few days, closed sale in 5-6 days
Acquired for 5-figures, $2.6K in MRR, US-based virtual assistants + tooling (geared toward online business
owners), $44K in trailing 12 mo revenue
Like a staffing agency + tech platform
Lot of R&D gone into it, great base, he was excited to own business
Great seller transition – SOP, tutorials – seller was focused on a new project

**Likes to close very quick, helps him w/ sellers“I’m a cash ready buyer that will close within 2 emails” – has standard set of questions, very attractive to sellers

Living in Mexico now

Let someone take over HiByron (the VA biz) – 60/40 split for any new revenues (“phantom equity”) + 1 year vesting
Has grown considerably with new management
From $2.6K MRR to $45K MRR – specifically one big new customer (a vendor to OnlyFans)

Latest acquisition: Vending business
Talked to a lot of brokers, shared requirements, looked in Mexico & Canada too
Looking for $multi-million deal
3 targets:
1. Chemical distribution (60 yo biz) – lost to strategic acquirer
2. Tech biz (phone systems securitization) – lost to PE / group of investors
3. Vending biz – jukebox, arcade games, ATMs – bars, restaurants – “seemed super weird to me”

Reviewed financials – very stable business – 7-figure cashflow, 50/50 split, labor is biggest OpEx
6 month process to close – all his previous M&A experience really helped, sought financing from 100+ banks and lenders, dealt with a lot of rejection
Main issue: Entirely local – had to be around his base, maybe at most a 2-3 hour radius
End consumer is B2C, but direct customers are B2B (eg, restaurant or theater)
80-90% shutdown during covid

Vending biz primer
Owns and places equipment
Sends own collector + technician for operations
Two critical elements – 1) service + 2) customers
Service – If jukebox goes down at 11pm, you must take care of it asap; if broken, order parts and replace in 1-2 days
Customers – gotta baby ‘em, one of few vendors that actually PAYS the customer – mutually beneficial, perfect alignment
Don’t wanna be 1+ hours away from customers
In vending, LOTS of one-man shows, small route that they do everything for, biz plateaus
A few are vending aggregators – buy multiple routes
Lots of vending sellers came to him after he bought the first one
Bought 3 more since that first purchase
His operation is biggest in the state, but doesn’t compare to national operators
Cash-flow is now multiple 7-figures

Podcast notes – Carmen Reinhart on international financial crises – Nobel Symposium

Interconnected nature of crises
Rich literature on banking crises – but there’s systematic relationship between banking and currency crises

Banking crises typically came after financial liberalization
125 countries, 300 banking crises = tight connection between capital market integration (open capital account) and incidences of banking crises

In era of heavy regulation, relative dearth of financial crises

Before, currency and banking crises were looked at in isolation
But, banking crises often lead to future currency problems – feedback loops

A legacy of banking crises is that governments end up with a lot of debt – takes over private debts / bank debts

Banking crisis increases probability of sovereign debt crisis – but not other way around

Pattern of steps
1. Financial liberalization
2. Boom in economic activity, asset prices
3. Slowdown / onset of banking problems
4. Bank crisis
5. Sovereign debt crisis

How to measure severity of crisis – look at per/capita GDP, and number of years required to return to pre-crisis peak

Most severe 100 crises, ranked – lots of triple crises (bank, currency, sovereign debt)

Antecedents of financial crises
-currency overvaluation – bad loans, firm over-profitability
-asset price bubbles
-credit boom
-build up of short-term debt
-decline of bank deposits / existence of bank runs
-hidden debts – all kinds of nasty surprises are revealed during crises

Post crises recessions are longer and more protracted than norm

Even by 2018, countries like Italy and Greece still had not returned to pre-crisis peaks (re: 2008 financial crisis)

Legacy of these crises is build-up of public sector debt

Advanced economies are no strangers to sovereign default…not even world powers