After WW2, America used its Navy to keep global trade and shipping lanes open
Bribed our alliance to fight the Cold War – but Cold War ended 30 years ago
Americans are now done with this arrangement
Population structure was mostly a pyramid in past – more kids, less parents, fewer grandparents
On farms, kids are free labor
In town, kids are expensive pieces of furniture
China today – fastest aging society in human history – result of One Child Policy
By 2100, will have <50% of today’s population
CHINA
China imports 80% of oil needs – world’s most exposed trade route since most of it comes from Persian Gulf
China utterly dependent on US-maintained global order for these shipping guarantees
Xi has consolidated power even more than Mao
“No one wants to tell him bad news”
China vaccines don’t work against Covid – can’t move away from zero-Covid policy bc healthcare impacts would be crushing
World’s oil and gas investment is only half of what it was 10 years ago
Takes 3-8 years to develop at its fastest
Soonest energy inflation fixes itself is 2025
US blessed with lots of domestic shale – largely fixed our natural gas problems
RUSSIA
Lots of land that isn’t habitable yet can’t be easily defended
Lost control of many access points / invasion points that were controlled under the USSR
Only way Russia can protect its borders is to expand
Time’s not on Russia’s side – like China, a severe demographics problem (not enough children and young people)
Russia only has 2M troops – they’re irreplaceable, no more reserves
AFRICA
Over 5 decades, agricultural output increased by 5x
But heavily reliant on global inputs of eg, potash and other chemicals
Expects many wars of collapse as America withdraws from maintaining global order
MEXICO
One of healthiest demographies in the world
Mexico in 2060 will look approximately like US today
Exports 77% of all goods to the US – critical bilateral relationship
El Chapo ran a Korean-style conglomerate – many regional commanders that he loosely controls
He saw it as business, not warfare – once he was removed, violence increased (Sinaloa), multiple leaders
Sinaloa is largest crime group in the US today, and risk of it getting worse
Geographically similar to Afghanistan – rugged terrain, unsecurable border – may need similar tools to manage it
AMERICAN POLITICS
2×2 – economic conservative v liberal, social conservative v liberal
Military doesn’t participate in the domestic political conversation
“Greatest period of change we’ll experience in our lives”
AUDIENCE Q&A
After the Civil War, the US was split, focused domestically on re-integration, didn’t have time for diplomacy / foreign affairs
Dollar diplomacy arose – individual business interests went around the world and did what they wanted
Resulted in hemispheric chaos, led to China’s fall to Communism
Economics is an outgrowth of demography and geography (probably his core thesis)
Han (Chinese) have been around for 3K years, but only been united for 10% of it
Didn’t worry about Taiwan war until recently – but if everything else is collapsing, something to be said about choosing time/place for fight and controlling the narrative (from Xi’s perspective) – considers it 1/3 chance
If China falls:
-N China plain would be its own political entity
-City states from Shanghai to HK will integrate into extra national system / external alliances
China – sex imbalance of 5-20%
95m more men <40yo than women – driving population collapse
Bullish on Turkey – still a developing country, but all energy within arm’s reach, good agricultural inputs, good European cooperation, control / easy access to key bodies of water
Russia-Chinese alliance
Not capable of functional cooperation once you remove US’s overarching reach
Only settled border disputes ~10 years ago
Can’t sustain conflict given demography problems