Podcast notes: Blockchains are cities – Haseeb Qureshi on Bankless

Blockchains are cities – Haseeb Qureshi and Bankless

Haseeb, Dragonfly Capital
“Multichain thesis”

Best metaphor for blockchains is cities eg
Eth is Manhattan
Solana is LA

Blockchains you can’t just add servers and scale
Why?
Core is blockchains = trustless
Rules are set in place, everyone follows them
You must individually be able to verify

If you have to trust a 3rd party or a centralized service, then it’s no longer trustless

Must keep independent verification costs low

Web2 adds servers – speeds up
Web3 adds servers – slows down (more consensus / coordination required)

Different blockchains have different thresholds – BSC and Solana node reqs are very high, BTC and ETH are lower

How to scale a blockchain “city”?
3 approaches
1. rollups = build up (skyscrapers)
2. interoperability networks
3. alt layer ones

ONE – Rollups – extends L1, same trust guarantees, still same core rules – like skyscrapers, pack more in same space
ETH has burning need for more space now – right now it’s like an old city, very flat, lacks the skyscrapers + subways to connect them

TWO – Cosmos / Polkadot – internet of blockchains; same SDK / underlying guts, spin up own blockchain
Not a big supercity but small towns that exist to do one thing – like all mining, or all shops
Osmosis (Cosmos SDK chain) – focused on “Balancer” functionality

In top 100, not many application specific blockchains
Not likely to be lions share of activity
Demand competing for will be valued less highly than general use chains

THREE – Alt layer ones
When cities full, people go build new cities
Cities are far from each other, cultures different
New cities have a lot of redundancy – basic infra, roads, marketplaces, schools
Seems wasteful initially
Advantage is not burdened by technical debt / bad decisions
Can be different from existing cities – from laws to values
Solana is like LA – very far from ETH (NYC) – everything cheap and fast and for builders

Other cities and blockchains

Avalanche – Chicago (3rd largest in US, finance, kinda like NYC, newer and fast growing, next gen Wall Street)

Near – San Francisco (relatively new, but culturally important, embraces ETH2 vision, true believers in decentralization, idealistic)

People don’t really switch between very different cities – they kinda stay in similar places eg Californians stay in Cali, NYers go to Jersey, etc

Blockchains will become increasingly distinct from each other, less commoditized

Will there be power law winners?
Yes, NYC > LA > Chicago etc

Big cities where almost all value is, concentrated in ETH

Skyscrapers are valuable, but skyscraper value is WAY less than a city (LA)

Cross-chain bridges will be extremely valuable

Bankless – sees them not as cities but nation-states (instead L2s are cities, and L1s are nations)
to go between nations, need more verification / security, there’s friction

EVM = constitution = allow cities to sync up
ETH = federal government

Everyone starts friendly, but as competition grows, could start being more aggressive / restrictive

L1 security costs = military = minting of new tokens or transaction fees
Nice thing about L2 is military comes for free – how can alt L1s compete?
Security spending is marginally less valuable after a certain point

What’s trajectory of the chain?
People wanna bet on winners

Both cities and nation states have power law winners at any time

How bullish on non-ETH chains?
“Quite bullish”
Rollups are much harder technically – if a skyscraper falls – much less flexible than alt L1s
From user perspective, best L2 is a vibrant L1, and so far market has reflected that

ETH is amazing except when it’s congested and then it sucks

Bear market is about sentiment – not there right now

Notes from Jay Gould’s interview of Dr. Jeff Ross (bitcoin, medicine, macro)

Jeff Ross – Founder Vailshire investment fund
47yo

His Top 5 people (chats with / respects most?): Preston Pysh; American Hodl; Joe Carlosari; James Lavish; Mike Alfred; Swan bitcoin team (Cory, Alex)

Midwest kid

Biology major, Minnesota medical school, became board certified Radiologist (2008-2021)

Loved Rockies, moved to Colorado Springs in 2008

Not interested in school, but good grades
Failed handwriting in 2nd grade

Played tennis in HS and college

Founded Vailshire in 2013, started managing others $ in 2014 (two careers until he retired from medicine in 2021)
Did tele-radiology for a NY group for a few years

Got MBA in finance a few years ago, but wasn’t worth it

Started finance blog after med school, picked up by Motley Fool, also wrote for Seeking Alpha
Got inbound requests to manage money

Grew up poor and redneck

People scared to take first step

At some point bitcoin will clash with governments around the world

US gov weapon of choice is sanctions
US is socialist and centrally controlled

Game theory – which country will go first to start adopting and mining Bitcoin?

Nation states cannot stop bitcoin but can make life miserable for hodlers

Short-term bearish on bitcoin the currency but long-term wildly bullish
affected by Powell hawkish, Fed raising rates, risk-off environment
but long-term, will be more accepted and more ubiquitous year after year

Fed’s uncanny ability to do things at the wrong time

In low rate environments, growth companies do very well
conversely, during rising rates, value companies do better

Similar to Q4 2018 – Powell was new, began to tighten, stocks tanked, and he flipped, didn’t raise, became very accommodative

Fed true mandate is supporting stock and bond markets, and/or inflation

Will try to raise rates, maybe 2-4 times, but then markets tank, and Fed will be forced to change

Doesn’t believe in bitcoin’s 4-year price cycle

Gensler makes clear difference between bitcoin and altcoins
Holding spot ETF hostage to get exchanges cleaned up (KYC / AML)

GBTC 30% discount to NAV – but when spot ETF approved (thinks eoy 2022) – will get back to NAV on top of bitcoin return

Similar to Q4 2018, bitcoin dropped from 20K to 6K, and then a massive dump
Now expects will continue going down, sideways, down, and then something crushes everyones’ souls – $27K, but could go down to $15K

“Macro supersedes everything”

// Finished about half of the interview

Balaji’s crazed wisdom on Howard Lindzon podcast: “There will be both deflation in wants and inflation in needs”

Balaji appeared on Howard Lindzon’s Panic With Friends recently and I took a bunch of notes and wanted to share them here. As usual Balaji is going 150mph and some of his insights are pretty out there, but clearly the product of deep thought and research. So I need to review what he says multiple times, over an extended period of time, to really let it sink in and do whatever our thoughts do in that squishy computer we have in our skulls.

The notes without attribution are what Balaji said, and I try to note “HL” where I’m sure it was Howard. But there will be mistakes, and they’re solely mine:

This is America’s first real defeat

Buffett is like the turkey who’s been fattened his whole life and suddenly it’s Thanksgiving

HL: If you own a China stock after Luckin then you’re just lazy. They even cheat coffee, which should be one of the easiest things to sell because it’s an addictive product

Thinks 3 very prescient people: Thiel (US can’t innovate); Gates (actually predicted a pandemic); KaiFu Lee (China can innovate)

“Any sufficiently advanced execution is indistinguishable from magic” re: China ability to build a train station in a day
// a twist on Clarke’s “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic”

During Yeltsin’s US trip, the moment he seemed to admit defeat was one of the most mundane – when he visited a random Albertson’s

Govts aren’t giving back powers they gained while fighting coronavirus
To fight this, you will need encryption and crypto

The two extremes of coronavirus world is “total state” (China, SKorea) or “market anarchy” (parts of US, Sweden)

Expects UBI, will be both deflation in wants and inflation in needs

Everything physical becomes expensive, all digital versions – travel, games, courts, education – will dominate and in this world digital currency is very important

Internet turned everyone into publishers, crypto turns everyone into investors

Buffett seemed tired – just realizing how hard it is, things have changed, can’t blame the guy for being lost, their fearful leader (speaking of the Buffett investing acolytes) is not a tech person

HL: “We’ve gone from an extrovert world to an introvert world”