Tag: podcast notes

Podcast notes: Ark analysts Yassine and Frank on Bankless

Ark analysts Yassine and Frank on Bankless

Yassin
Engineering + finance
Crypto in 2017, joined Ark

Frank
GPU mining in 2017
Previously data + cloud engineer

Ark typical week —
Monday – portfolio review
Middle of week – research, long-form writing
Friday – brainstorm with advisors and team

Every financial asset will eventually become a crypto asset

Generational shift from internet > crypto
Balaji – Blockchains:scarcity what internet:information

Easiest explanation of crypto is a distinct asset class, requires separate framework from trad assets

Continuation of “software eats the world”

Every bank needs a fintech strategy now, and soon every bank will need a crypto strategy

Spectrum of centralized vs decentralized trust
“There are no solutions, only tradeoffs”
Money requires most decentralized trust
Defi / web3 requires a bit less
Status quo / web2 is very centralized trust

Different revolutions evolving in parallel – Ark believes money revolution is most profound (Bitcoin)
Bitcoin is prime candidate to compete as global base money – the more boring and predictable, the better

Eth, Solana, Terra – tradeoff decentralization for higher throughput and lower cost
What does perfect balance look like?

Eth 2.0 vision – PoS, sharding, rollups – the upgrades enable it to compete with the alt L1s (unlike bitcoin where conservatism is a core value)
alt L1s sacrifice the decentralization for greater throughput and speed – makes them more similar to status quo (web2, centralized)

Bitcoin could be $1M+ by 2030
$28T market cap = 3x gold market cap
Becomes global store of value
Ark first gained BTC exposure in 2015 through GBTC
Bitcoin’s use cases are additive and zero-sum given 21M fixed supply
Supply shock given that majority are long-term holders
Bitcoin is Veblen good – demand increases as price increases
How it gets there:
1. Digital gold (replacing gold)
2. Corporate treasury (eg, Microstrategy, Tesla, Square)
3. Global HNW investment (seizure resistant)
4. Nation-state treasuries (eg, El Salvador)

Defi / web3
Crypto native protocols are generating much higher revenues per employee than trad finance
Power of open source, software eating finance
Uniswap = 20 people, $40M revenues per person
Chris Dixon: Uniswap may be the most valuable codebase per line

ETH market cap could > $20T in next 10 years
All ETH transactions = chain revenue
More and more tradfi revenue moving on-chain, plus new sources of on-chain revenue
ETH = Hybrid of global dev platform + value to token of being native currency to that ecosystem
$20T market cap = $180K ETH price
Financial revolution (ethereum) is more competitive than money revolution (bitcoin) – riskier / more uncertain
If ETH wins both financial and money revolutions (beats bitcoin and competing L1s), then ~$50T market cap

NFTs
From static collectibles to dynamic digital assets
NFTs are digital property rights = own our data for first time
Right now web2 (eg, FB) owns data
Incentivizes more spending on digital content
Gaming opportunity – Fortnite makes $5B in revenue for purely status based digital goods
Good example – in Indonesia, $SLP (from Axie) is being accepted for local taxi rides
Growth of metaverse – eventually online monetization and spending will surpass offline

In 5-10 years
Frank: proof points that crypto is becoming mainstream, being adopted, diversifying, no longer speculative like 2017
Crypto becoming popular for (some) politicians to support, and increasing regulation as positive for ecosystem
Yassin: unbelievable to be witnessing in real time, who knows what next 4 years will bring

Podcast notes: Sven Henrich on Scott Melker (Wolf of All Streets)

Sven Henrich – Northman Trader, market strategist and commentator

Global economies are becoming increasingly nationalized – bond markets are no longer free market

Each boom and bust cycle is getting more volatile

Threw $12T into system – greatest (short lived) party on the planet

No consequences when Central bankers (CB) is wrong
Also created great wealth inequality

Last year Fed still buying mortgage securities – which leads to higher house prices when people are struggling to buy homes!

Some CB have already admitted that QE exacerbates asset bubbles, and they all watch stock markets closely

Great reported corporate earnings last year, but no connection to organic economy

We forget that Powell has a large equity portfolio too and he’s hurt when market drops

Goldman has 5 rate hikes priced in for this year
Initially planned to raise rates in 2023, 2024 – complete flip flop
Speeches keep setting wrong expectations

Consumer confidence = very low, technically at recessionary levels
Massive disconnect with stock markets

CB has to be super careful not to burst asset bubble that they themselves created

Fed has 12 tightening cycles since 1950s – and stocks have risen in 11 of them!

Politicians must solve inflation by summer – otherwise will lose midterm elections
Looks like a big manipulative operation

You’re joking if you think Fed will aggressively hike into an economy that is slowing in an election year

What we’re seeing right now – the markets’ correction – is healthy
When CB is in control, volatility dies – they kill price discovery – but now volatility is higher, and for traders it’s fabulous

Sven’s own wife has been a long-term bitcoin bull
Saylor helped to orange pill him recently
New young industry w/ growing pains and excessive speculation
Reminds him of 2000 tech bubble – it didn’t crash right away, wide ranges up and down for many months before finally falling apart
Need more regulatory clarity

If CB throw excess liquidity into system, everything becomes correlated

Right now everyone is still long stocks like Fab 5 (Netflix, FB) – haven’t seen protracted bear market in stocks for long time
If stocks struggle for 1-2 years, and inflation structurally higher, you gotta find an alternative
Bitcoin still correlated, but there will be a shift

“Each death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic” – Stalin

If raise rates 1%, US interest payments > military budget (!)

Reason the rates cannot rise too much is because the system starts to shut down – and the ceiling drops lower and lower every time
If rates today were anywhere close to 2007 level, the entire system would collapse
Each cycle can do less and less – CB losing efficacy of their tools

ECB last rate hike was 11 years ago – haven’t been able to raise rates once
What ammunition do you have for the next crisis?

Now massive bubble + slowing growth + high inflation

Scott: If someone hands you $5M today, where do you put it?
Sven decided to start allocating into bitcoin this year – technical view – has specific allocation in mind where if goes to zero, he can survive
Bitcoin as protection + major upside play
History doesn’t repeat but it rhymes

Risks of cross leverage in system leading to liquidity crisis and blowout moves down
Bitcoin could go down to $7K
But with 10-20 year view, it’s like buying Apple in 2010 or 2001
Liked bitcoin dip to $32, 33K – wants to aggressively accumulate more
Gonna be a long-term hold
Expects his own conversion will happen to others too – thinks it’s a sizable bear market in Bitcoin, but has long term view

Two key issues for bitcoin this year
1. Regulatory guidelines – eg, Russia
2. Asset bubble in stocks

Podcast notes: Tim Urban (Wait But Why) on Lex Fridman

Lex Fridman interviews Tim Urban (writer of Wait But Why)

I wonder how small intelligent life gets – or how big

Humans operate at multiple social levels – can be independent individuals, and can be colonies / collectives

Humans are roughly in the middle of the biggest and smallest measurable things (biggest = observable universe; smallest = subatomic particles)

How many alien civilizations?
“Teeming with life”
Estimates of 27M intelligent civilizations in Milky Way alone
But we don’t observe any

Lex: Our understanding of intelligence and consciousness is very human centric – probably very limited and science is very young

No human can make a pencil by themselves

Tim: If a witch casts a spell on humanity and all material things disappears, goal is to make one working iPhone 13 and she’ll reverse the spell. How could we do it? Requires materials, factories, teams, tools

Think of how much work and infrastructure and invention required to just get food delivered to you at click of a few buttons

Elon says need 1M people on Mars to be truly multi planetary
Could be war in space for territory, tribalism (Mars v Earth)

America was first modern democracy and now there are many more – founders tried to make the ideal country

Tim: $10K bet that a human will set foot on Mars by 2030 – should be a massive global event
2030s will be new 1960s, new space decade
Greatest adventure in history – hopefully a great uniting event
SpaceX makes me proud to be a human

What makes Elon so successful?
Lots of people have his talents, but he’s sane in the way that everyone else is crazy
We’re not adapted to our modern hyper populated hyper connected world
He’s willing to question conventional wisdom, trust his reasoning
“He just does things his own way”

Hate is on the rise
Inputs are human nature (which doesn’t change much) + environment = behavior
Something in environment is changing = changing behavior
The good is getting better and the bad is getting worse
Feels like we’re headed toward an important fork between an incredible and a terrible future

“Political Disneyworld” – delusion where everything is good or evil, black or white
If you assemble highlight reel of your worst moments, you’ll seem like a terrible person
Everyone is worthy of both criticism and compassion

Our environment is bringing out really bad stuff
Rapidly changing environment = rapidly changing behavior, and wisdom is slow to catch up

Nuclear power is clearly a good option – antipathy towards it don’t seem rational or practical

Lex: lots of fear mongering going on

Tim: Balance of Higher mind + Primitive mind
When a topic riles up primitive mind, collectives become dumber than individual for self defense
Climate change has become a sacred topic – can’t handle constructive criticism
Covid / vaccines are same – sucked into a political whirlpool, into hands of primitive minds

Future has more and more complex problems, need more higher mind and less primitive mind

Opposite of echo chamber is an idea lab – need more idea labs (scientific process, new ideas, collective participation)

Stopped at 1h26m

Podcast notes: The Saga of Joe Rogan on NYT podcast

Rogan grew up working class
Very good at martial arts – 19, wins national tae kwon do championship
Moves to LA to pursue standup comedy
Big break – becomes host on Fear Factor
Then becomes commentator for MMA

MMA was growing quickly, and Joe becomes public face of MMA commentary
In 2003, starts recording chats with his friends
Built-in audience: Fear Factor, UFC, comedy nerds
Audience steadily grows
In 2009, moves to Ustream platform – and renames it The Joe Rogan Experience (play on Jimi Hendrix Experience)
In 2013, he starts recording and publishing clips to YouTube
This led to massive growth

Audience is largely men – “patron saint of certain kind of American masculinity”
Like hearing smart people talk about interesting stuff

NYT podcast is highly produced, fact checking, lots of prep
JRE is polar opposite, very long (up to 4 hours), very unedited
“Medium is the message” – wysiwyg
Dabbles in wide variety of topics: fitness, fighting, health, thinkers like DeGrasse Tyson, DMT and psychedelics

His manifesto: always keep learning, keep expanding horizons

Has proclivity for conspiracy theories, pseudoscience, hearing out more radical thinkers, like UFOs, Alex Jones
He may disagree, but he will let them talk – even if they can’t get mainstream media

His biggest view – proudly anti political correctness (anti cancel culture, anti liberal pieties) – really resonates with audience
“It’s ok to be a white man who watches people beat each other in UFC”

Singular figure – pro gay marriage, pro weed, believes in climate change
Not Republican or Democratic – just Joe Rogan view of world

By 2015 – 11M per episode
Viral clips that start to influence culture
Elon Musk episode – smokes joint on air, gets really personal, becomes instant meme – causes Tesla stock to drop

May 2020 – Spotify acquires it for $100M for exclusive distribution rights
People who listen to podcasts listen to more music too
Spotify wants to build exclusive library of podcast content
Deal does well – share price rises, subscriber numbers grow
Spotify surpasses Apple to become #1 podcast platform

Then comes the covid pandemic
Invites fringe guests that counter mainstream health authorities – lockdowns, masks
Joe got covid, treated with ivermectin, skeptical about covid vaccines
Interviews Dr. Robert Malone – medical pariah, darling of Republican Right, who believes hospitals are incentivized to get more covid patients, anti-vax
Interview got huge public blowback

Musician Neil Young was very offended – tells Spotify either me or Rogan –
Joni Mitchell too

Initially Spotify says it’s neutral platform, eg, has rappers with offensive lyrics
CEO Daniel Ek says it won’t de-platform, but will add warning labels, publish moderation guidelines

Rogan releases IG video – half apologizes, acknowledges his approach may need to change
Talks about more preparation, more fact checking, more mainstream guests

Then controversy escalates
India Arie takes music off Spotify, because old clip of Rogan saying N-word

Rogan releases another video – apologizes for using the N-word
Takes down ~70 old episodes

Spotify’s own employees also confront CEO
But Spotify doesn’t back down
Promise to allocate $100M to under repped minority content

Spotify is taking their own stand, but also Rogan matters financially to them (more than he matters to a platform like YouTube)
Rogan so far is cancel proof – saying un-woke things, isn’t afraid to offend people

How can Rogan, who has more podcast listeners than NYT, not be “mainstream media”?
Massively popular, extremely wealthy, yet positions himself as outsider punching up at establishment

Represents a new emerging mainstream – popular, contrarian voices like Rogan’s

Can Spotify give platform to this new contrarian mainstream, while still adhering to old mainstream?

Podcast notes: Performance psychologist Dr. Michael Gervais on Tim Ferriss

from Tim’s Fearless show
guest Dr. Michael Gervais

Felix Baumgartner jumped from highest point ever
became claustrophobic in space suit – was about to scrub the project
asked Dr. Gervais to assist

How to extinguish fear
1. Systematic desensitization
2. Flooding

Flooding – if fear response, put them in environment until they no longer experience the fear, overwhelm them

Fears become loops – tension and exit

Systematic desensitization – arousal control and thought management
List fear triggers, and systematically put them into those environments, manage heart rate and emotional response

Surfing was huge part of his life – but his anxiety during it prevented him from pursuing it professionally
Fine with free surfing, but not with judges / fans
Brain became overloaded

Met 3 professors who changed his life
Art of Seeing book
Did a one week survival course with just that book, pen & paper, and can’t meet anyone for a week

Figuring out who you are is largest work you can do as a person
How to articulate this in 1-20 words
Words that make your heart skip a beat

Jesus: Love
Buddha: Love and Kindness
MLK: Equality

Tim’s philosophy: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst

First athlete client, hockey player – has “potential” – but this can be a crippling word

Pre-performance routines
Routines are useful – different from superstitions
1-3 things that are triggers for you to think the right way
When I tie my shoes, what do I say to myself; when I put on my helmet, what do I say to myself

Team routines differ from individual routines

Learnings from Pete Carroll
Begins with relationship – with himself, with team, with staff
3 rules
1. Always protect your team – especially when things are hard
2. No whining, no complaining, no excuses; Own your stuff
3. Be early

Message, “Championship game” / “Championship opportunity” from pre-season

Every game is big, every practice is huge, maximize the moment

Right after “the loss”, Pete Carroll devastated for 2 secs, and then realized: I gotta be there for my guys

Role of mindfulness
-to be centered, be here now
-“invisible process of becoming more aware”

Mindfulness recs
sit and pay attention to one breath at a time
“the practice is the work”
natural state of mind is drunk monkey
integrating senses, and just listen

when you’re around people that are truly mindful, you’ll naturally want it

practice openness, vulnerability, saying the hard things
being present with people is a loving act

how to come back from eg, a super bowl loss
value of front loading a philosophy – being prepared
feel the pain first
only reason people change is because of pain

“know who you are and let it rip”

advice for everyday 9-5
being present
have great conversations
get after it every day, put yourself into emotionally uncomfortable situations so you can adjust

role of Stoicism in his life – know what you can and can’t control

Billboard message to world
“Just fricking love”
“Make a decision. Build capacity. Test yourself.”

Request to audience
your unique journey is determined not by what you DO, but who you ARE. self discovery, share those insights with others
get into rugged hostile environments, what it feels like on razors edge, learn to love it