Startup, tech, AI, crypto learnings #14: Elon’s Laws of Thermodynamics

The biggest change in behavior was that lingering fell dramatically. The amount of time spent just hanging out dropped by about half across the measured locations.…The internet and mobile phones are likely driving this change in behavior.

Indeed DJT’s skill is finding the Schwerpunkt. The weak point of inflection. That’s why he generates mean nicknames to get under peoples skin…

SF is always and everywhere a glimpse at the American future: spectacular technology navigating itself around intractable social problems and over bad infra (the roads in SF are those of a developing world city).

Whether intentionally or because of their ability to support third-party apps, every fintech will become a crypto gateway. Fintechs will grow in prevalence and may perhaps rival smaller centralized exchanges in crypto holdings.

“If you don’t have confidence it’s like a guy with money in his bank account but he can’t access it”
GSP

Ask yourself if this startup is your life’s work. Knowing you’re in it for the long haul lets you settle into a calmer, more focused rhythm despite the daily ups and downs, as you trust you’ll show up and make it succeed over time. — PG

What kind of faults in ourselves should we retain, nay, even cultivate? Those which rather flatter other people than offend them.

Having curious parents makes you excited about the future.
My dad:
> Started a company at 40
> Began learning Russian at 52 and is now fluent
> Picked up machine learning studies at 56
> Sold his company at 57
> Started acting at 58

Anthony Bourdain was a chef and a storyteller who explored food through culture and travel. Simone Biles dominates gymnastics and advocates for mental health. Zendaya acts and inspires fashion discourse.

Most people start with a professional-ish shtick, then layer in a personality shtick. Influencers nail the personality shtick first—whether it’s humor, aesthetic, or controversy—then seek out serious skills, even building businesses to anchor their fame.

Mark Zuckerberg has Meta, martial arts, and increasingly, he’s a family man. Elon Musk now brings Lil X everywhere. Whether family is your quiet third shtick or deliberately on display, the trifecta works: smart, strong, and loving—every power player’s dream image.

Each time we increase our lattice in size from 3×3 to 5×5 to 7×7, the encoded error rate decreases by a factor of 2.14. This culminates in a logical qubit whose lifetime is more than twice that of its best constituent physical qubit, demonstrating the capacity of an error-corrected qubit to go beyond its physical components.

I’ve been drawn to Mariana Mazzucato’s “mission economy” ideas—how massive, long-term missions (think the original moonshot) align entire systems toward a singular goal.

This is why he inspires such incredible loyalty, especially from the technical people who he works with. They’re like, wow, if I’m up against a problem I don’t know how to solve, freaking Elon Musk is going to show up in his Gulfstream jet, and he’s going to sit with me overnight in front of the keyboard or in front of the manufacturing line, and he’s going to help me figure this out.”

the truth terminal has like forty million dollars to pursue its very strange goals, thanks to all you mad bastards sending it coins and pumping them

winners keep winning
– abundance mindset
– problems are just puzzles to solve
– if it doesnt work – pivot. there’s always plan B-Z
– relentlessly optimistic
– gratitude mindset – appreciating what you have so you will always attract more

Memecoins are the fastest and digitally-native way to extract capital from attention. The value flows where attention goes. Indeed, attention is ephemeral. So is the value attached to it. Hence to monetize one usually has to make a profit earlier rather than later. Few memes have staying power. Rugs are a feature, not a bug.

Apple uses a consistent corner radius of about 38 pixels across ALL its products, including iPhones, iPads, Macs, and Apple Watches.
A strategy that helps all their devices look and feel connected.

ACX is so close to getting it right on ‘taste’, but then dismisses the closest (“grammar”) conclusion in favor of a much more elementary interpretation (“priesthood of esoterica”).

Are we running out of resources?
No, we’ve never run out of a single resource, ever. There’s not a single resource you could point to that was a resource in the classic commodity sense that had any real value, where we ran out in some harmful way.

The initial boost in measured US productivity is consistent with our weaker labor protections: lower productivity workers are often the first fired in a recession.

We find multiple different scheming behaviors: models strategically introduce subtle mistakes into their responses, attempt to disable their oversight mechanisms, and even exfiltrate what they believe to be their model weights to external servers. Additionally, this deceptive behavior proves persistent. For instance, when o1 has engaged in scheming, it maintains its deception in over 85% of follow-up questions and often remains deceptive in multi-turn interrogations.

o1 has introduced the idea of spending more time at inference to give model time to think on harder problems. Turning that into more of a training procedure where model learns when it needs to spend more time thinking before predicting the next token based on it’s own understanding of how hard the problem is. There is already some work on this, notably Quiet-STaR, but as far as I know – nobody scaled it up

Elon’s Laws of Thermodynamics
You can’t win = conservation of energy
You can’t break even = entropy increases over time
You can’t break out of the game = as temp -> abs zero, entropy reaches a constant

The rapid revelation of true preferences often leads to:
Collapse of existing institutions that relied on forced consensus
Emergence of new social and political arrangements
Psychological shock as people realize how many others privately opposed the system

Dutch disease
the negative consequences of a sudden increase in a country’s income, eg, when discovering a huge oil field or gold mine
term comes from the Netherlands, where the discovery of natural gas in the North Sea in 1959 led to a shrinking manufacturing sector and rising unemployment

Stanley Druckenmiller obsesses over position sizing.
And it’s one of the (many) reasons why he generated 30% CAGRs without a single down year.
“Position sizing is 70 to 80% of the game.”

The concert industry has a dirty secret. It’s not just that Ticketmaster is evil, or that bots are stealing tickets. It’s that the entire market is built on a comfortable lie: Artists pretend their tickets are affordable, Ticketmaster pretends they’re fighting scalpers while giving kickbacks to artists, and fans pretend they won’t pay whatever it takes to get in.

I’ve worked with . . . ~150 artists from 33 countries. Quite a few of them have been the way artists are typically portrayed: self-centered, hard to work with, a little crazy. These were the amateurs. The best artists I’ve worked with, for example A and B, a husband and wife duo, were not at all like that.

A and B didn’t tell the customer that they had spent 14 man hours improving it; it was just something they did because it was right, nothing they wanted credit for.A and B have earned enough money from their New York gallerist to retire, but they’d rather use that money to make better art.

I got to run something like an experiment on my capacity to predict which exhibitions would end up great, and which would be a waste of time. It was easy. As soon as someone was slow at answering their email, or complained, or wanted us to be their therapist as they worked through the creative worries, I would tell my boss, “I think we should cancel this.” And my boss—whose strength and weakness is that she thinks the best of people and makes everyone feel held—would say, “Ah, but they are just a bit sloppy with email” “if we just fix this thing it will be fine. . .”
I was right every time; it ended in pain.

“Damn right I’m paranoid. It’s what keeps my mind sharp”

If I’m trying to write some code and something isn’t working, even if it’s in another part of the code base, I’ll often just go in and fix that thing or at least hack it together to be able to get results. […] I think that’s arguably the most important quality in almost anything. It’s just pursuing it to the end of the earth. Whatever you need to do to make it happen, you’ll make it happen. […] I’m just going to vertically solve the entire thing. And that turns out to be remarkably effective.

When you step back and look at these apps, one thing becomes clear: they became really successful when the underlying technology had already been adopted.
-Microsoft Office was announced in 1988 when IBM PC sales were over 10,000,000 per year.
-Google started in 1998 when 26% of all Americans had the Internet at home (and probably more at work)
-Instagram started in 2010 when over 20% of the US population had smartphones

“In 40 AD, there were maybe a thousand Christians. Their Messiah had just been executed, and they were on the wrong side of an intercontinental empire that had crushed all previous foes. By year 400 AD, there were forty million Christians, and they were set to dominate the next millennium of Western history.”

Sol is a data center chain (10gbps upload recommended). They are years away from achieving client diversity, if ever. Their token is famously closely held – it’s more like an enterprise token. Much of the supply is still uncirculating. And lots of the circulating supply is owned by a small circle of Sol insiders. The EF owns 0.25% of all ETH, ~100x less than just the percentage of uncirculating SOL.

Stablecoins have gone from 3% of blockchain transactions in 2020 to now consistently representing over 50% of blockchain transactions.

SHEIN has gobbled up US fast fashion. When the company entered the US market in 2018, its sales hovered around $1.5B. Sales have since multiplied 15-20x and now top giants like Zara and H&M. The company’s revenue target for 2025 is over $50B.
SHEIN’s trajectory has been stunning: the business grew over 100% for eight straight years (!), and in 2022 dethroned Amazon as the No. 1 shopping app in the iOS and Android app stores.

It’s telling that many of our techno-prophets don’t entertain the possibility that artificial intelligence will naturally develop along female lines-fully capable of solving problems but with no desire to annihilate innocents or dominate the civilization.

A hobby, by contrast, operates on its own terms. You sit down, you focus, and then, suddenly, it happens, a burst of energy, clarity, or flow. But it doesn’t last long and you naturally stop. And that’s where the realization hits: the contrast isn’t just about work vs. hobbies. It’s about how the systems we’ve built ignore our natural rhythms. Hobbies reminds you that life happens in bursts.

ChatGPT has some idiosyncratic default punctuation behaviors. For example, it uses straight quotation marks for quotes and straight apostrophes for contractions, but curly apostrophes for possessives. It also defaults to em dashes—like this—which are not widely taught in high schools. Students used to use hyphens or en dashes – like this – but this year I’m seeing almost exclusively em dashes.

A good time to be investing in AI would’ve been a few years back, when the foundation model and infra layers were taking shape. See: OpenAI, Scale, Anthropic above. (The application layer, though, has a lag effect, so now may be the right time.) When everyone was talking about “The Future of Work” in 2020, meanwhile, it would’ve helped to invest in Canva and Notion five years prior. And defense tech is all the rage now, but most people were focused on crypto and DTC brands when Anduril was being born back in 2017. And so on and so on.

If the structural similarity between hemoglobin and chlorophyll doesn’t fascinate you, then I’m not sure we can be friends.

What made America truly successful wasn’t its ability to frighten others – it was its ability (largely lost today) to build. The Marshall Plan, international institutions, cultural exchange, industrial might, technological innovation – these were the real sources of American power.

the English-speaking West used to dominate global culture, but that’s changing. Squid Game (Korean) is the most-watched show on Netflix; Khaby Lame (Senegalese-Italian) is the most-followed person on TikTok; Bad Bunny (Puerto Rican) is the most-streamed artist on Spotify.

I have found that it is the small everyday deed of ordinary folks that keep the darkness at bay. Small acts of kindness and love. – Tolkien

The gates of hell are open night and day;
Smooth the descent, and easy is the way:
But to return, and view the cheerful skies,
In this the task and mighty labour lies.
-Virgil’s Aeneid

Another thing I’ve changed my mind on: The world greatly favors aggressive men, over the less so. Not just collectively, but also individually. They need to keep their aggression in check w.r.t. superiors, but others still like to see that boiling rage barely held in check.
-Robin Hanson

For a species such as humans, whose reproductive cycles are measured in decades, the time it would take for a gene drive to spread widely would be measured in centuries. Someone would be bound to notice long before things got out of hand. Artificial gene drives would be possible (and maybe even easy) to detect and reverse.

Vermont (75%), New Hampshire (66%) and Maine (66%) are the least religious states. Mississippi (32%), Alabama (36%) and Louisiana (37%) are the most religious.

Ethereum has 34.4M ETH staked (28% of current supply), while Solana’s active staked supply is 297M SOL (51% of current supply ratio), due to lower barrier to entry for delegators.Ethereum has a larger validator set of 1.07M validators, while Solana, with higher hardware demands, has 5,048 validators but over 1.21M delegators.

The most common method, which makes up 40% of all attacks, is data (Palo Alto Networks) deletion. For some reason, lots of hackers just want to mess things up instead of stealing data.

My best guess is that rotation gets faster, certain waves return a couple of times, and path independence will be the most precious resource to navigate such an environment. The ecosystem (L1/2s) becomes less important as trends become app/use-case dominant.

Bitcoin used to be the gateway drug to crypto. Not anymore. Not for retail at least. Memecoins are a monetized attention market and are becoming the access point for new users. But what they are is a momentum trade. They cannot be forward-looking.

I went to the artists to buy their artworks… and very soon artists introduced me to other artists. I talked to so many artists, not only to understand their art practice, but also to understand the way they react to and produce from those vast materials bulked up in Chinese society. My wife assisted me who spoke Chinese more fluently, and friends from the art community, so we had many conversations with artists.

So I thought it to be instrumental to set up an artist award and later art critic award and publish catalogues and books to support artists on the national scale.

A new post puts America’s socially optimal fertility rate at 2.4, and estimates we should place a value of $1.17 million on each additional birth, and to do this should be willing to spend $290k per birth.

Psychology is more contagious than the flu

There are two wolves inside us. They are always at war — quote from movie Little Bone Lodge

Tiananmen taught the Chinese Communist Party a crucial lesson: urban unrest is the biggest threat to regime survival. But there’s an often-overlooked economic context to those protests – inflation was surging in the late 1980s. This wasn’t just a political crisis, it was an economic one.

They just think, “I hire a bunch of people, and then I sit back and wait for greatness.” They have no idea that they have to relentlessly drive every second of the day, every interaction, and seek the confrontation. — Slootman

Marc Andreessen explains that the world has been s**tposting forever:
“Newspapers have been scandal sheets forever. The first newspaper was a scandal sheet about The Vatican. It was all about scandals with the pope and the bishops, etc. Jefferson and Adams both owned newspapers and would use it to smear each other. Ben Franklin had 15 different sock puppet anon accounts (pseudonyms) and have them argue with each other in his newspaper. We’ve been in a world of information warfare for a very long time.”

Trump’s known position on AI is very volatile and easily influenceable. Elon Musk will be a “Minister of Artificial Intelligence” for this Trump legislative period, I’d argue. There is no other person in the Trump administration who has a clear voice and a strong opinion on Artificial Intelligence apart from Elon Musk. The candidate for the AI CZAR

Socialism is organised crime masquerading as political theory
https://x.com/opptattbruker/status/1862062666283438087?s=46

Five fingers of a museum:
-Collect
-Preserve
-Study
-Interpret
-Exhibit

Random facts – things I learned (Feb 7 2024) – Bryan Johnson: “If you don’t have haters, you want to dial it up”

Prior editions:

Random facts:

Bryan Johnson: “If you don’t have haters, you want to dial it up”

AI+blockchains point to a dystopia of impersonal and faceless interchangeable-parts humanity that’s more industrial than the industrial age.

There is an ongoing assault on slow thinking and your attention

Eugene Wei’s famed Status as a Service outlines three dimensions to evaluate social product strength — social capital, entertainment, and utility. The essay focuses mostly on status and how it’s valued and accrued by creators across the different kinds of social networks that have scaled.

#18 Applied art enters an accessible era
Technology tailwinds are making it easier for anyone to mix art and utility, which historically required niche technical skills. We’ve seen how fine art can advance (e.g. painting, sculpture), but I expect applied art (e.g. industrial, graphic, fashion, and interior design) to leap forward next and capture greater cultural capital

“[Larry’s] material was uncompromisingly to his own taste, filled with wild tirades about apparent trivialities,” James Caplan writes in the New Yorker profile.
Larry was called a “comic’s comic” for his approach. Entering his 40s and unwilling to change, he accepted the reality that he would likely only ever have a cult following

This is one of the most important things I can impart: in any troubled company the people at lower levels know what ought to be done in terms of day-to-day operations

Ed Norton + Rick Rubin
-After exhausting your wave of creative work, you have two choices: either repeat that work, or you can stop, refill yourself with life, and be willing to start an entirely new adventure
-Most films don’t work at all until the sound mix is done
—“I always think of the work as solving a puzzle.” – Rick Rubin

Good writers don’t walk around all day with 100,000 words of eloquent wisdom in their heads. No one can do that. They take some vague feeling they’ve been thinking about, dig into a bunch, write down what they’ve discovered, realize half of it doesn’t make sense, delete most of it, write some more, realize the new stuff contradicts itself, panic when they realize they don’t understand the topic as well as they thought they did, talk to other smart people about why that is, learn something new that reminds them of this other thing that might tie into the second paragraph, discover that this thing they believed before they started writing isn’t actually true, realize that if that thing isn’t true then this other thing is probably really important, and so on endlessly. Grinding through this process reveals bits of context that are hopefully new discoveries to the reader. More importantly, they were likely new discoveries to the writer before they set out writing.

my first paper as a PhD student laying out a set of explanations for why the IT age was not showing up in the productivity statistics. The first was that digital technologies often create a lot of benefits in ways that are not well captured in the data. In particular, digital products often have zero price. Gross domestic product measures all the things that are bought and sold, with a few exceptions, if something has zero price, it is not captured

Unfortunately, the AI companies have nearly universally broken fundamental issues of fairness: they are making money on your writing without asking for your consent, nor are they offering you compensation and credit. There’s a lot more one could ask for, but these “3 Cs” are the minimum.

“The most important thing a man has to tell you is what he’s not telling you,” he said. “The most important thing he has to say is what he’s trying not to say.” — LBJ

For these reasons, I opt first for whole food forms of these nutrients. Whole foods provide us with everything, including the things we don’t yet understand and the things that we only now think we understand, even if mistakenly.  And this is why I regularly test my micronutrient status to verify that I’m not over- or under-doing the things we do currently know about

Why not put $500 into a memecoin that could 50x, knowing that you could likely lose most or all of it? It’s not like the $500 is enough to make any difference anyways. Neither is $1k or $5k. That mindset, which is becoming pervasive in America, is financial nihilism. This is the zeitgeist for young Americans, you’re naïve to think otherwise. And it’s a huge driver of shitcoining

First neural networks paper was published in 1943!
Warren McCulloch and Walter Pitts – modeled a neural network with electrical circuits

many young people use YouTube a lot — about 60% of teens use it almost constantly or several times a day

Doesn’t matter if it’s an illusion. It works so long as it’s interesting. If people are bored it’s game over. – Miyazaki

In a hunter-gatherer group, despite men’s physical strength peaking in their twenties, their skill at hunting did not peak until in their mid-forties. “The implication is that for men, experience and wits are more important than raw strength.” https://a.co/d/32hHhkt

It turns out writing code is one of the things that these models are absolutely best at. Probably 60-70 percent of my usage of these tools is around writing code. I have a hunch that programmers, software engineers, are the group best served by this technology right now. We get the most benefit from it

I feel like as adults, we are actually more scared of things than when we were children. We are scared of real life, failure, being abandoned, being rejected from jobs to relationships, having no money, having no safety net, being alone…I can go on, but I would give anything to be afraid of the imaginary monster under my bed again rather than what I’m scared of now. Anything

Which brings me to the real scarce insight Jeff gave Jason and I early on: What entrepreneurs need most is confidence, not advice. He’d always preface any advice with “you know your business better than I do” and “just keep doing what you know is right”.

For those unfamiliar, the Green Bay Packers are the only team with a public ownership structure in the National Football League. The Packers are owned by 537,460 stockholders with no shareholder allowed to own more than 4% of the shares outstanding (how’s that for decentralized!). While called A “stock”, owners have no equity interest, no dividend rights, no protections or regulations under securities law, and cannot trade their “stock” with a 3rd party

Intensive meditation, even after only one day, can also affect gene regulation in your brain through similar mechanisms. Attending a monthlong meditation retreat reduces the expression of genes that affect inflammation, and experienced meditators can reduce inflammatory genes after just one day of intensive meditation.

@simonsarris
One of the biggest misconceptions for most of my life was that I had to understand something in order to do it.

Agathon tells us, This alone is denied to God: the power to undo the past

But the artist cannot look to others to validate his efforts or his calling. If you don’t believe me, ask Van Gogh, who produced masterpiece after masterpiece and never found a buyer in his whole life.

The professional learns to recognize envy-driven criticism and to take it for what it is: the supreme compliment. The critic hates most that which he would have done himself if he had had the guts.

Lastly, what is really fascinating is this – all you need for a new religion or god is pretty much a new symbol, backed by the corresponding community and narratives

The idea of your birthplace as the society to which you must bear allegiance, and even sacrifice your life for, is relentlessly hammered into you from a young age.

Just as C++ is an abstraction layer on top of binary, AI is an abstraction layer over lower level thinking. In other words, with AI you don’t have to be as specific as programming or as precise as an excel formula. Instead, you can give a somewhat generic prompt and still get a useful output. You can be a bad manager and still get the results you need from your robot employee

Getting things to run smoothly, working to achieve a lack of resistance, this is the antithesis of art’s essence, it is the antithesis of wisdom, which is based on restricting or being restricted.

Goodhart’s Law: when a measure becomes a target (for performance, incentives, etc), it ceases to be a good measure

In fact today China imports in value more chips than it does crude oil and iron ore (to make steel) combined!

Joy and happiness are born of concentration. When you are having a cup of tea, the value of that experience depends on your concentration. You have to drink the tea with 100 percent of your being. The true pleasure is experienced in the concentration. When you walk and you are 100 percent concentrated, the joy you get from the steps you are taking is much greater than the joy you would get without concentration. You have to invest 100 percent of your body and mind in teh act of walking. Then you will experience that being alive and taking steps on this planet are miraculous things.

The War of Art highlights
-Now consider the amateur: the aspiring painter, the wannabe playwright. How does he pursue his calling? One, he doesn’t show up every day. Two, he doesn’t show up no matter what. Three, he doesn’t stay on the job all day. He is not committed over the long haul; the stakes for him are illusory and fake. He does not get money. And he overidentifies with his art.
-She understands that all creative endeavor is holy, but she doesn’t dwell on it. She knows if she thinks about that too much, it will paralyze her. So she concentrates on technique. The professional masters how, and leaves what and why to the gods.
-The professional dedicates himself to mastering technique not because he believes technique is a substitute for inspiration but because he wants to be in possession of the full arsenal of skills when inspiration does come.

“People are more adept [at] working against [things] than oftentimes we give them credit for. We often think of people working for things, but they often work against things. They work against poverty. They work against their upbringing. They work against some of these things just as much as they’re working for them. Some people are very fear-driven. We talk about fear as being very negative, but it also can be very positive.” — Dr. Julie Gurner

The workshop leaders, however, had a different point of view. They argued that if you see yourself as part of something bigger—a team, an organization, a community, or a mission—it takes the toxicity out of striving. When your primary goal is to contribute to this “something bigger,” you still work just as hard, but the motivation driving you is different. Rather than just trying to prove that you are good enough or better than others, you view your efforts as serving a purpose greater than yourself.

One of the first things they found is that when people are connected to bigger-than-self goals, they feel better: more hopeful, curious, caring, grateful, inspired, and excited. In contrast, when people are operating from self-focused goals, they are more likely to feel confused, anxious, angry, envious, and lonely.

The genius of Hinduism, then, was that it left room for everyone. It was a profoundly tolerant religion. It denied no other faiths. It set out no single path. It prescribed no one canon of worship and belief. It embraced everything and everyone.

Every person is a creature of the age in which they live, and few are able to raise themselves above the ideas of the time. — Voltaire (1694 – 1778)

Status limbo is a place with more freedoms than other states. It’s not freer in a tangible sense, but removing the usual status-preserving hangups lets you act more freely. It somewhat like being on the moon. There’s less societal and institutional gravity.

Chris takes the same journey but he calls these phases Read, Write, and Own. The initial phase of the web, when the web browser arrived, was mostly a reading experience. Then in the early 2000s, the web became two-way and we could Read and Write. What Blockchain Networks have unlocked is the ability to own things on the web – Fred Wilson

My sense is that this new idea: Bitcoin, and this new demographic: Millenials are in for an epic bull run.
The BTC ETF will be the gateway drug for this. It will get the Boomers and GenXs so that they CAN participate in the transition. Most won’t. But enough will. It’s an idea that will take over the next 20 years.

My body is like a prized racehorse, or a cherished high-end performance vehicle,” he explains. “I will only ever get this one, so just like any valued possession, I will invest heavily in its appearance, performance, fuel, care & maintenance.
“I only wish I knew & applied everything I know now, decades ago!”


James Cameron

I like difficult. I’m attracted by difficult.

Difficult is a fucking magnet for me.

I go straight to difficult.

And I think it probably goes back to this idea that there are lots of smart, really gifted, really talented filmmakers out there that just can’t do the difficult stuff.

So that gives me a tactical edge to do something nobody else has ever seen, because the really gifted people don’t fucking want to do it.

At the heart of this strategy lies the drone—not just as an airborne device but as a potent software platform. Imagine drones that never miss, drones that never operate in isolation, drones with unbreakable communication lines, and drones that, in swarms, always prevail. All possible with software, and all changeable—all the time.

Life advice from an old guy on Twitter:
-I leave my waitress a big tip. The extra money might bring a smile to her face. She is toiling much harder for a living than I am.
-I have learned not to correct people even when I know they are wrong. The onus of making everyone perfect is not on me. Peace is more precious than perfection.
-I give compliments freely & generously. Compliments are a mood enhancer not only for the recipient, but also for me. And a small tip for the recipient of a compliment, never, NEVER turn it down, just say “Thank You.”

And in that flow, you find yourself doing things not purely for status, but because there’s something in them that’s more meaningful to you. As I’ve written before: “To become truly great at something, you need to be at least a little obsessed with that thing — enough to get lost in the joy of doing it, not the allure of what it could get you.”

Elon Musk said the following on an investor call this week: Chinese car companies are the most competitive car companies in the world. If there are not trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish all other car companies in the world. They’re extremely good

Om: Hindu meditation practices have long understood the benefits of sound, especially through the chanting of “Om.” This sound, central to many Hindu traditions, is more than a symbol; it’s a powerful tool that engages the vagus nerve, known for its role in regulating stress and relaxation responses. The act of humming, inherently part of chanting Om, creates a gentle, soothing vibration. This process not only brings a physical dimension to meditation but also enhances the spiritual experience, as the sound of Om is said to represent the universe’s primal sound.

Fourth, ChatGPT and related systems have a kind of truthiness problem; some of what they say is true, and some is not; it is very difficult for the end user to anticipate what will or not be true. They have been known to make up biographical details, and even whole court cases; they have defamed people, and even occasionally botched basic math questions. Whatever they say sounds authoritative, but it is not always true; as they say in the military, “frequently wrong, never in doubt”.

Those who have ambition and entrepreneurial energy are going to Singapore. Those who have money and means are going to Japan. And those who have none of these things — the slackers, the free spirits, kids who want to chill — are hanging out in Thailand.

Civilization thus kicked off with development of the original Large Language Model: formal writing systems

And, by the way, the appetite for more things is insatiable. Each new invention placed in the economy creates the opportunity and desire for two more. While plain old telephone service is headed toward the free, I now have three phone lines just for my machines and will someday have a data “line” for every object in my house. More important, managing these lines, the data they transmit, the messages to me, the storage thereof, the need for mobility, all enlarge what I think of as a phone and what I will pay a premium for

the great Stoic philosopher Marcus Aurelius describes a happy, virtuous individual in similar terms:
[H]e loves and welcomes whatever happens to him and whatever his fate may bring.

The three great Roman Stoics — Seneca, Epictetus, and Marcus Aurelius — did not have easy lives:
* Seneca (4 BCE – 65 CE) was adviser to the Roman Emperor Nero, and was eventually exiled and forced to take his own life.
* Epictetus (50 CE – 135 CE) was a slave who gained his freedom.
* Marcus Aurelius (121 CE – 180 CE) was Emperor of Rome during a time of constant crisis, be it war or plague, and most of his children died before he did.

The Rashomon effect is a storytelling and writing method in cinema in which an event is given contradictory interpretations or descriptions by the individuals involved, thereby providing different perspectives and points of view of the same

In the UK, filming in public is legal and does not require permission, nor does it require release agreements from any of the people that might end up on camera. 

GPS was a novelty luxury only a few years ago. It was expensive. As its technical standards spread into mapping services and hand helds, it becomes essential, and the basic service (where am I?) will become a commodity and free. But as it drops toward the free, hundreds of additional advance GPS functions will be added to the fixed function so that more people will pay ever more for location services than anyone pays now. Where-am-I information will be free and ubiquitous, but new services will be expensive at first.

More War of Art:
-Sometimes Resistance takes the form of sex, or an obsessive preoccupation with sex. Why sex? Because sex provides immediate and powerful gratification.
It goes without saying that this principle applies to drugs, shopping, masturbation, TV, gossip, alcohol, and the consumption of all products containing fat, sugar, salt, or chocolate
-The paradox seems to be, as Socrates demonstrated long ago, that the truly free individual is free only to the extent of his own self-mastery. While those who will not govern themselves are condemned to find masters to govern over them.
-The more scared we are of a work or calling, the more sure we can be that we have to do it. Resistance is experienced as fear; the degree of fear equates to the strength of Resistance
-It will pledge anything to get a deal, then double-cross you as soon as your back is turned. If you take Resistance at its word, you deserve everything you get. Resistance is always lying and always full of shit.

He defines crypto as a meeting of “generative tech” (the creation of new things, users and markets) and “participatory capital formation” (individuals pooling money in new ways to create new types of businesses).

Copies flow so freely we could think of the internet as a superconductor, where once a copy is introduced it will continue to flow through the network forever, much like electricity in a superconductive wire.

You’ll probably trust your AI lawyer more than your lawyer in a few years just as you’ll trust self-driving cars over getting into a random Uber with a stranger driving.

Ethereum hit $10 billion in revenue faster than any other major software company besides Google

Black Holes are also the most computationally dense possible objects, because they represent the limit on how much information you can pack into a finite volume.

To get status, you have to give up status. You have to sacrifice some existing status to make it back and more. This is especially true in creative fields and high-upside opportunities. Writers, musicians, actors, directors, entrepreneurs must all do their time in status limbo. And you don’t know how long that time will be. How well you tolerate this state can be the ‘winning’ difference between you and someone just as talented and hard-working as you.

pmarca: Most people should move a lot faster, and also say yes a lot more.

Even material industries are finding that the costs of duplication near zero, so they too will behave like digital copies. Maps just crossed that threshold. Genetics is about to. Gadgets and small appliances (like cell phones) are sliding that way. Pharmaceuticals are already there, but they don’t want anyone to know. It costs nothing to make a pill

TIL of the 3 sacred gifts of Japan, they are: a sword, a mirror and a jade Jewel. They are believed to have been given over 5,000 years ago to the imperial family from the Shinto goddess, Amaterasu.
only the current emperor, Naruhito, and other high-Shinto priests can see it.
(apparently the sword is a replica, real one lost at sea centuries ago)

The crypto bull is back: What are the unexpected catalysts waiting for us?

Most people who follow crypto would probably agree that we are either entering or already in the early innings of the next crypto bull cycle. Just as prior cycles took prices to all time highs over the span of 1-2 years — though with plenty of volatility — I expect much the same behavior this cycle, too.

Like prior cycles, this one seems to sync with Bitcoin’s 4-year halving. Like prior cycles, it also comes after a prolonged and painful bear market full of implosions, bankruptcies, scammers, government regs, and plenty of Twitter fights.

If you’re on Twitter, the dominant explanation for why the worm has turned is the anticipated approval of America’s first Bitcoin spot ETF, specifically Blackrock’s application.

There are other catalysts too such as:

-the anticipated Bitcoin halving cutting new bitcoin issuance from 6.25 per block to 3.125 per block in April next year

-A pause and potential reversal of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle (and stealth QE or as Michael Howell puts it, “quantitative support” 🙄)

-The conclusion of SBF’s (first) criminal trial and the steady forgetting of the FTX debacle (and the Luna debacle and the Celsius debacle and on)

-High and sustained global inflation causing fiat currency holders around the world to look for alternative stores of value

-The crash of US Treasury prices and the prospect of “higher for longer” interest rates causing fixed income investors to seek alternatives

I consider the above as “immediate” catalysts in the sense that if any of them were to occur in a sustained and significant way, it would probably lead to a significant and broad pump in crypto prices. Some of the above are already “priced in” to varying degrees. But not completely, and not to the degree that I anticipate they will materialize in 2024 and 2025.

In addition to the imminent catalysts, I find it interesting to speculate about potential knock on effects, the “unexpected catalysts” per the title, the second order effects that follow on from the first wave.

Just as the rise of Uber (initial catalyst) led to the downstream effects of (a) the decline of the regulated yellow cab industry, (b) the crash in NYC taxi medallion prices, and (c) the rise of on-demand apps for everything from scooters to house cleaners.

These unexpected catalyst and downstream effects are far less likely to happen, but when they do, they can generate enormous volatility in outcomes because they are almost by definition SURPRISES and thus NOT PRICED IN.

I believe the immediate catalysts — and more that I missed — will by themselves propel Bitcoin past its former all time high ($69K USD). You can expect the rest of crypto to catch up as well (just not your shitcoin).

But it’s those unexpected catalysts / un-priced-in effects that could push cryptocurrencies to significant new highs in 2024 and 2025. Though I don’t put much stock in price predictions, my starting assumption for price peak in this fast approaching cycle is $150K Bitcoin and $10K Ethereum, with Ethereum flippening Bitcoin (as I wrote about before) briefly, and that itself also being a second order effect.

So below are some very speculative potentially surprising ideas that could catalyze the late and crazy parts of the bull market:

Microstrategy causes corporations and corporate titans to fomo in
As Microstrategy’s Bitcoin bags explode in value (even at $36K Bitcoin, MSTR is already $1B in profit), leading to record corporate profits, a soaring stock price, and new levels of media notoriety for Michael Saylor, other small and medium tier companies — particularly those in adjacent industries from energy to tech to finance — will adopt a crypto reserve strategy. You could see billionaire tech titans like Masayoshi Son fomo in. Bitcoin will benefit most. Ethereum may surprise too

El Salvador causes nation states to fomo in
The same effect could happen to El Salvador, which becomes celebrated as a new beacon of financial sovereignty and emerging market wealth. President Bukele is feted by innovative politicians (I hope this is not an oxymoron) and small sovereign states, particularly in the Global South, and a race begins for nation states and central banks to buy Bitcoin and other blue chip cryptos. Investing heavily in bitcoin mining is also an indirect approach (eg, Oman, UAE, Bhutan). It’s possible G7 / developed states could also FOMO in, but I think this more likely in the next cycle (circa 2027-2028)

Bitcoin ETF’s success leads to a laundry list of other token ETFs
The Bitcoin spot ETF, after a slow launch, will steadily become Wall Street’s new darling, causing financial advisors and institutions to fomo in, leading to a slew of applications for other crypto ETFs starting with Ethereum. Though most applications could be rejected or at least delayed, this solidifies crypto’s position within tradfi, and tradfi is coming with their big accounts and clever financialization.

Ethereum becomes known as the deflationary currency and the Internet bond
As crypto usage rises (always correlated with bull markets), Ethereum becomes significantly deflationary (it already is, just more so), and along with its anticipated spot ETF approval, this is the cycle where Ethereum will birth its new reputation as (1) the “Internet bond” (first bearer digital asset with meaningful yield) and (2) the first deflationary asset to go alongside Bitcoin’s positioning as the first fixed-supply asset

Bitcoin beating gold becomes the next Schelling point
As Bitcoin easily passes $100K, everyone will turn their attention to what’s next, and what’s next is beating gold. Depending on the estimate you use, that easily puts Bitcoin around $400-500K, which I don’t expect to happen in this cycle… but it could. And it’s what people will talk about in the late bull. People need rallying points and gold has always been a big bullseye

Ethereum will flippen Bitcoin — just briefly
Just as Bitcoin’s main competitor is gold, Ethereum’s main competitor is Bitcoin. I support both and believe a rising tide lifts all boats. In the last bull, Ethereum peaked around 50% of Bitcoin’s value (market cap), and I expect that 50% will be far surpassed this cycle. As this happens, everyone will begin talking about Ethereum “flippening” Bitcoin, and the possibility is not priced in. Though I expect any market cap flippening to be short lived this cycle, but possibly a permanent fixture by the next. I wrote more about that prospect here.

Memecoin mania will return with a vengeance, and MSM will go crazy
I expect memecoin mania to return, despite less global liquidity and a high rates environment. And it will be larger and more degenerate, and no one will expect it. The first $100B memecoin. Maybe even a memecoin billionaire. The mainstream media’s shock and disgust will ironically pour fuel on flame. Elon’s never one to miss a press party, and he will finally launch his own token, somehow justifying the move by claiming synergy with Twitter/X and Grok AI.

That’s it for now. It’s a very incomplete list, but if even a couple of the above surprises were to happen, we could be in for a wild(er) ride. I’ll add more as I think of them or you can yell at me on Twitter.

You could argue there will be plenty of negative surprises and unforeseen headwinds, too, but that’s the thing about bull markets — no one really cares, and everyone just wants to greed while greeding is good. The bad news and the corruption and the new wave of scams will accumulate and build and then push us into the next bear in 2025-2026 :)

Podcast notes – Evolution of NLP – Oren Etzioni – TWIML: “Deep learning is the ultimate prediction engine”

Oren Etzioni – founder of AI2

Late Microsoft cofounder Paul Allen wanted to create Allen Institute for AI – hired Oren to make it happen
Paul had vision of computer revolution, relentless focus on prize of understanding intelligence and the brain

AI2’s mission is “AI for the common good”

AI2’s incubator – 20+ companies in pre-seed stage
Natural part of university lifecycle – ideas that can then grow with right resources

Created Semantic Scholar – free search engine for scientific content
New tool – help make PDFs easier to read, auto-create TLDRs for science papers

Sky Light – computer vision to fight illegal fishing

Deep learning for climate modeling – why use neural network? “Deep learning is ultimate prediction engine”

“Common Sense” project – holy grail for AI – how to endow computers with common sense
Common sense ethics are very important
eg, the paper clip creator that takes over humanity to maximize paper clip production
“Alignment problem” is part of it
Are neural nets enough? Do you need to create symbolic knowledge?
Yujin Choi’s team, Mosaic – common sense repository – a collection of common sense statements about the universe
What about when people disagree? Can relativize answers, eg, “if you’re conservative, you would think X; if liberal, think Y”, etc

“Never trust an AI demo” – need to kick tires and ask right questions
eg, Siri / Alexa – slight changes create very different responses

“You shall know a word by the company it keeps” – underlying principle of NLP

Used to think encoding grammar rules was important
But today’s tech is good at approximating those rules

What is the nature of human level intelligence?
How do we collect and understand human knowledge?

Tech that gets you to space station is different from going to Mars, different from leaving Solar System, etc

Large language models (LLMs) are doing “hallucination”, not very robust (different wording leads to different answers)
Eg, who was US president in 1492? “Columbus”

Is it a game of whack of mole? Or is there some fundamental paradigm of human intelligence?

Some experts believe our current algorithms – back propagation, supervised learning, etc – are foundation for more sophisticated architecture that could get us there
Eg, neural nets are very simple brain models

Disagrees strongly with Elon Musk’s views on AI — doesn’t believe we’re “summoning the demon” — it’s hype, not rooted in data

Neural net tuning – like a billion dials on a stereo

Science is hampered if there are third rails you’re not allowed to study or question

Steadfast in support of open inquiry

Researchers are cautious about releasing language models to public – easy to generate controversial outputs

Surprised by progress of the technology – but again, never trust an AI demo
Think about what’s under hood, implications for society

Recent good reads – web3, Elon, Stranger Things, fake Russian history, and CS Lewis

https://tcg.mirror.xyz/CCtokn_XR9yqGhL3OIKM4u8IxaVO0V0fmRxH-G5yWs8

We hear a lot of conversation around “hooks” for crypto-native messaging, like permissionless social graphs, verification, and token-gating, but these are features of web3 messaging, not the core use of it. None of these features have made on-chain messaging competitive with Telegram or Signal, because convenience (almost) always wins over quality. The reason these messaging protocols will be more convenient is they will unlock a whole new recipient of the message: the protocol itself. We haven’t gotten there yet because currently, messaging is regarded as an end, but web3-native messaging is a means, not an end. It’s a byproduct of completing actions.

Interacting with the protocol is a fascinating idea, although I suppose that’s what we do when we search google, or call an uber…and now there’s “interacting with an algorithm” too when we use ChatGPT or Stable Diffusion…

https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/12/12/1064751/the-viral-ai-avatar-app-lensa-undressed-me-without-my-consent/

“Women are associated with sexual content, whereas men are associated with professional, career-related content in any important domain such as medicine, science, business, and so on,” Caliskan says.

I dunno, I kinda liked my new six pack

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-14/elon-musk-twitter-ownership-full-of-firings-ad-cuts-chaos

His journey from hero of the save-the-planet wing of the Democratic Party to right-wing flag-bearer has been years in the making. It was seemingly provoked by a series of real or perceived attacks from his left flank—from unions such as the United Auto Workers, which hopes to organize Tesla workers; Covid-wary lawmakers in California who shut down Tesla’s factories during the early days of the pandemic; and labor-friendly leaders like President Joe Biden, who declines to mention Tesla in speeches about electric cars and talked about extending EV credits for only unionized automakers. When Musk feels ambushed, he lashes out.

Shakespearean psychodrama? Does the msm have a hard on for Mr. Musk or what

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/most-amazing-discoveries-2022

For the first time, biologists have observed a native species, a bobcat, raiding a python nest and eating its eggs. Later, when the bobcat returned to find the snake guarding its nest, the cat took a swipe at the reptile. “When you get interactions like this and see the native wildlife fighting back, it’s like a ray of sunshine for us,” says Ian Bartoszek, an ecologist with the Conservancy of Southwest Florida. “In 10 years of tracking snakes, I can count on one hand the number of observations” of native animals standing up to the reptiles.

Demonstrating per usual that the “real” world is an incredible place full of potential wonder and we haven’t yet understood 1% of 1% of it

https://theupheaval.substack.com/p/a-prophecy-of-evil-tolkien-lewis

The process which, if not checked, will abolish Man goes on apace among Communists and Democrats no less than among Fascists. The methods may (at first) differ in brutality. But many a mild-eyed scientists in pince-nez, many a popular dramatist, many an amateur philosopher in our midst, means in the long run just the same as the Nazi rulers of Germany. Traditional values are to be ‘debunked’ and mankind to be cut into some fresh shape at will (which must, by hypothesis, be an arbitrary will) of some few lucky people…

I had to read this twice to understand its gist, which is something like, when we stopped worshipping something greater than ourselves (be it values or a deity), that left a power vacuum, and a small set of “experts” stepped in to tell us what to worship instead. And in writing that preceding sentence, I realize I still don’t really get it, and probably need to read it again

https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1010653/she-spent-a-decade-writing-fake-russian-history.-wikipedia-just-noticed.-

Yifan went down the rabbit hole on the Kashin mine and the Tver-Moscow War, learning about battles, the personalities of aristocrats and engineers, and more history surrounding the forgotten mine. There were hundreds of related articles describing this obscure period of Slavic history in the dull, sometimes suggestive, tone of the online encyclopedia. It was only when he tried to go deeper that something started to seem off. […] Eventually, he realized that there was no such thing as the great silver mine of Kashin (which is an entirely real town in Tver Oblast, Russia). Yifan had uncovered one of the largest hoaxes in Wikipedia’s history.

Yes I am chaotic neutral, and yes I mostly find this entertaining and have more than a modicum of admiration for this high-school educated lady to weave such a George RR Martin-esque alternative history. What we humans are able to create when we truly enjoy the creating…

https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/stranger-things-season-4-captions

Jeff T.: People really focused on “eldritch thrumming.” Eldritch is that sort of arcane, unknowable, vaguely threatening, otherworldly presence. I am going to reveal the depths of how nerdy I am — I apologize in advance — but it’s also the signature spell for a warlock in Dungeons & Dragons. It’s called eldritch blast. The lore of a warlock in Dungeons & Dragons is that they make the deal with an otherworldly power, whether it’s a demon or a powerful fairy lord. So I was like, “Oh, this is the perfect term for that sense of otherworldly power intruding into our world.”