Startup, tech, AI, crypto learnings #14: Elon’s Laws of Thermodynamics

The biggest change in behavior was that lingering fell dramatically. The amount of time spent just hanging out dropped by about half across the measured locations.…The internet and mobile phones are likely driving this change in behavior.

Indeed DJT’s skill is finding the Schwerpunkt. The weak point of inflection. That’s why he generates mean nicknames to get under peoples skin…

SF is always and everywhere a glimpse at the American future: spectacular technology navigating itself around intractable social problems and over bad infra (the roads in SF are those of a developing world city).

Whether intentionally or because of their ability to support third-party apps, every fintech will become a crypto gateway. Fintechs will grow in prevalence and may perhaps rival smaller centralized exchanges in crypto holdings.

“If you don’t have confidence it’s like a guy with money in his bank account but he can’t access it”
GSP

Ask yourself if this startup is your life’s work. Knowing you’re in it for the long haul lets you settle into a calmer, more focused rhythm despite the daily ups and downs, as you trust you’ll show up and make it succeed over time. — PG

What kind of faults in ourselves should we retain, nay, even cultivate? Those which rather flatter other people than offend them.

Having curious parents makes you excited about the future.
My dad:
> Started a company at 40
> Began learning Russian at 52 and is now fluent
> Picked up machine learning studies at 56
> Sold his company at 57
> Started acting at 58

Anthony Bourdain was a chef and a storyteller who explored food through culture and travel. Simone Biles dominates gymnastics and advocates for mental health. Zendaya acts and inspires fashion discourse.

Most people start with a professional-ish shtick, then layer in a personality shtick. Influencers nail the personality shtick first—whether it’s humor, aesthetic, or controversy—then seek out serious skills, even building businesses to anchor their fame.

Mark Zuckerberg has Meta, martial arts, and increasingly, he’s a family man. Elon Musk now brings Lil X everywhere. Whether family is your quiet third shtick or deliberately on display, the trifecta works: smart, strong, and loving—every power player’s dream image.

Each time we increase our lattice in size from 3×3 to 5×5 to 7×7, the encoded error rate decreases by a factor of 2.14. This culminates in a logical qubit whose lifetime is more than twice that of its best constituent physical qubit, demonstrating the capacity of an error-corrected qubit to go beyond its physical components.

I’ve been drawn to Mariana Mazzucato’s “mission economy” ideas—how massive, long-term missions (think the original moonshot) align entire systems toward a singular goal.

This is why he inspires such incredible loyalty, especially from the technical people who he works with. They’re like, wow, if I’m up against a problem I don’t know how to solve, freaking Elon Musk is going to show up in his Gulfstream jet, and he’s going to sit with me overnight in front of the keyboard or in front of the manufacturing line, and he’s going to help me figure this out.”

the truth terminal has like forty million dollars to pursue its very strange goals, thanks to all you mad bastards sending it coins and pumping them

winners keep winning
– abundance mindset
– problems are just puzzles to solve
– if it doesnt work – pivot. there’s always plan B-Z
– relentlessly optimistic
– gratitude mindset – appreciating what you have so you will always attract more

Memecoins are the fastest and digitally-native way to extract capital from attention. The value flows where attention goes. Indeed, attention is ephemeral. So is the value attached to it. Hence to monetize one usually has to make a profit earlier rather than later. Few memes have staying power. Rugs are a feature, not a bug.

Apple uses a consistent corner radius of about 38 pixels across ALL its products, including iPhones, iPads, Macs, and Apple Watches.
A strategy that helps all their devices look and feel connected.

ACX is so close to getting it right on ‘taste’, but then dismisses the closest (“grammar”) conclusion in favor of a much more elementary interpretation (“priesthood of esoterica”).

Are we running out of resources?
No, we’ve never run out of a single resource, ever. There’s not a single resource you could point to that was a resource in the classic commodity sense that had any real value, where we ran out in some harmful way.

The initial boost in measured US productivity is consistent with our weaker labor protections: lower productivity workers are often the first fired in a recession.

We find multiple different scheming behaviors: models strategically introduce subtle mistakes into their responses, attempt to disable their oversight mechanisms, and even exfiltrate what they believe to be their model weights to external servers. Additionally, this deceptive behavior proves persistent. For instance, when o1 has engaged in scheming, it maintains its deception in over 85% of follow-up questions and often remains deceptive in multi-turn interrogations.

o1 has introduced the idea of spending more time at inference to give model time to think on harder problems. Turning that into more of a training procedure where model learns when it needs to spend more time thinking before predicting the next token based on it’s own understanding of how hard the problem is. There is already some work on this, notably Quiet-STaR, but as far as I know – nobody scaled it up

Elon’s Laws of Thermodynamics
You can’t win = conservation of energy
You can’t break even = entropy increases over time
You can’t break out of the game = as temp -> abs zero, entropy reaches a constant

The rapid revelation of true preferences often leads to:
Collapse of existing institutions that relied on forced consensus
Emergence of new social and political arrangements
Psychological shock as people realize how many others privately opposed the system

Dutch disease
the negative consequences of a sudden increase in a country’s income, eg, when discovering a huge oil field or gold mine
term comes from the Netherlands, where the discovery of natural gas in the North Sea in 1959 led to a shrinking manufacturing sector and rising unemployment

Stanley Druckenmiller obsesses over position sizing.
And it’s one of the (many) reasons why he generated 30% CAGRs without a single down year.
“Position sizing is 70 to 80% of the game.”

The concert industry has a dirty secret. It’s not just that Ticketmaster is evil, or that bots are stealing tickets. It’s that the entire market is built on a comfortable lie: Artists pretend their tickets are affordable, Ticketmaster pretends they’re fighting scalpers while giving kickbacks to artists, and fans pretend they won’t pay whatever it takes to get in.

I’ve worked with . . . ~150 artists from 33 countries. Quite a few of them have been the way artists are typically portrayed: self-centered, hard to work with, a little crazy. These were the amateurs. The best artists I’ve worked with, for example A and B, a husband and wife duo, were not at all like that.

A and B didn’t tell the customer that they had spent 14 man hours improving it; it was just something they did because it was right, nothing they wanted credit for.A and B have earned enough money from their New York gallerist to retire, but they’d rather use that money to make better art.

I got to run something like an experiment on my capacity to predict which exhibitions would end up great, and which would be a waste of time. It was easy. As soon as someone was slow at answering their email, or complained, or wanted us to be their therapist as they worked through the creative worries, I would tell my boss, “I think we should cancel this.” And my boss—whose strength and weakness is that she thinks the best of people and makes everyone feel held—would say, “Ah, but they are just a bit sloppy with email” “if we just fix this thing it will be fine. . .”
I was right every time; it ended in pain.

“Damn right I’m paranoid. It’s what keeps my mind sharp”

If I’m trying to write some code and something isn’t working, even if it’s in another part of the code base, I’ll often just go in and fix that thing or at least hack it together to be able to get results. […] I think that’s arguably the most important quality in almost anything. It’s just pursuing it to the end of the earth. Whatever you need to do to make it happen, you’ll make it happen. […] I’m just going to vertically solve the entire thing. And that turns out to be remarkably effective.

When you step back and look at these apps, one thing becomes clear: they became really successful when the underlying technology had already been adopted.
-Microsoft Office was announced in 1988 when IBM PC sales were over 10,000,000 per year.
-Google started in 1998 when 26% of all Americans had the Internet at home (and probably more at work)
-Instagram started in 2010 when over 20% of the US population had smartphones

“In 40 AD, there were maybe a thousand Christians. Their Messiah had just been executed, and they were on the wrong side of an intercontinental empire that had crushed all previous foes. By year 400 AD, there were forty million Christians, and they were set to dominate the next millennium of Western history.”

Sol is a data center chain (10gbps upload recommended). They are years away from achieving client diversity, if ever. Their token is famously closely held – it’s more like an enterprise token. Much of the supply is still uncirculating. And lots of the circulating supply is owned by a small circle of Sol insiders. The EF owns 0.25% of all ETH, ~100x less than just the percentage of uncirculating SOL.

Stablecoins have gone from 3% of blockchain transactions in 2020 to now consistently representing over 50% of blockchain transactions.

SHEIN has gobbled up US fast fashion. When the company entered the US market in 2018, its sales hovered around $1.5B. Sales have since multiplied 15-20x and now top giants like Zara and H&M. The company’s revenue target for 2025 is over $50B.
SHEIN’s trajectory has been stunning: the business grew over 100% for eight straight years (!), and in 2022 dethroned Amazon as the No. 1 shopping app in the iOS and Android app stores.

It’s telling that many of our techno-prophets don’t entertain the possibility that artificial intelligence will naturally develop along female lines-fully capable of solving problems but with no desire to annihilate innocents or dominate the civilization.

A hobby, by contrast, operates on its own terms. You sit down, you focus, and then, suddenly, it happens, a burst of energy, clarity, or flow. But it doesn’t last long and you naturally stop. And that’s where the realization hits: the contrast isn’t just about work vs. hobbies. It’s about how the systems we’ve built ignore our natural rhythms. Hobbies reminds you that life happens in bursts.

ChatGPT has some idiosyncratic default punctuation behaviors. For example, it uses straight quotation marks for quotes and straight apostrophes for contractions, but curly apostrophes for possessives. It also defaults to em dashes—like this—which are not widely taught in high schools. Students used to use hyphens or en dashes – like this – but this year I’m seeing almost exclusively em dashes.

A good time to be investing in AI would’ve been a few years back, when the foundation model and infra layers were taking shape. See: OpenAI, Scale, Anthropic above. (The application layer, though, has a lag effect, so now may be the right time.) When everyone was talking about “The Future of Work” in 2020, meanwhile, it would’ve helped to invest in Canva and Notion five years prior. And defense tech is all the rage now, but most people were focused on crypto and DTC brands when Anduril was being born back in 2017. And so on and so on.

If the structural similarity between hemoglobin and chlorophyll doesn’t fascinate you, then I’m not sure we can be friends.

What made America truly successful wasn’t its ability to frighten others – it was its ability (largely lost today) to build. The Marshall Plan, international institutions, cultural exchange, industrial might, technological innovation – these were the real sources of American power.

the English-speaking West used to dominate global culture, but that’s changing. Squid Game (Korean) is the most-watched show on Netflix; Khaby Lame (Senegalese-Italian) is the most-followed person on TikTok; Bad Bunny (Puerto Rican) is the most-streamed artist on Spotify.

I have found that it is the small everyday deed of ordinary folks that keep the darkness at bay. Small acts of kindness and love. – Tolkien

The gates of hell are open night and day;
Smooth the descent, and easy is the way:
But to return, and view the cheerful skies,
In this the task and mighty labour lies.
-Virgil’s Aeneid

Another thing I’ve changed my mind on: The world greatly favors aggressive men, over the less so. Not just collectively, but also individually. They need to keep their aggression in check w.r.t. superiors, but others still like to see that boiling rage barely held in check.
-Robin Hanson

For a species such as humans, whose reproductive cycles are measured in decades, the time it would take for a gene drive to spread widely would be measured in centuries. Someone would be bound to notice long before things got out of hand. Artificial gene drives would be possible (and maybe even easy) to detect and reverse.

Vermont (75%), New Hampshire (66%) and Maine (66%) are the least religious states. Mississippi (32%), Alabama (36%) and Louisiana (37%) are the most religious.

Ethereum has 34.4M ETH staked (28% of current supply), while Solana’s active staked supply is 297M SOL (51% of current supply ratio), due to lower barrier to entry for delegators.Ethereum has a larger validator set of 1.07M validators, while Solana, with higher hardware demands, has 5,048 validators but over 1.21M delegators.

The most common method, which makes up 40% of all attacks, is data (Palo Alto Networks) deletion. For some reason, lots of hackers just want to mess things up instead of stealing data.

My best guess is that rotation gets faster, certain waves return a couple of times, and path independence will be the most precious resource to navigate such an environment. The ecosystem (L1/2s) becomes less important as trends become app/use-case dominant.

Bitcoin used to be the gateway drug to crypto. Not anymore. Not for retail at least. Memecoins are a monetized attention market and are becoming the access point for new users. But what they are is a momentum trade. They cannot be forward-looking.

I went to the artists to buy their artworks… and very soon artists introduced me to other artists. I talked to so many artists, not only to understand their art practice, but also to understand the way they react to and produce from those vast materials bulked up in Chinese society. My wife assisted me who spoke Chinese more fluently, and friends from the art community, so we had many conversations with artists.

So I thought it to be instrumental to set up an artist award and later art critic award and publish catalogues and books to support artists on the national scale.

A new post puts America’s socially optimal fertility rate at 2.4, and estimates we should place a value of $1.17 million on each additional birth, and to do this should be willing to spend $290k per birth.

Psychology is more contagious than the flu

There are two wolves inside us. They are always at war — quote from movie Little Bone Lodge

Tiananmen taught the Chinese Communist Party a crucial lesson: urban unrest is the biggest threat to regime survival. But there’s an often-overlooked economic context to those protests – inflation was surging in the late 1980s. This wasn’t just a political crisis, it was an economic one.

They just think, “I hire a bunch of people, and then I sit back and wait for greatness.” They have no idea that they have to relentlessly drive every second of the day, every interaction, and seek the confrontation. — Slootman

Marc Andreessen explains that the world has been s**tposting forever:
“Newspapers have been scandal sheets forever. The first newspaper was a scandal sheet about The Vatican. It was all about scandals with the pope and the bishops, etc. Jefferson and Adams both owned newspapers and would use it to smear each other. Ben Franklin had 15 different sock puppet anon accounts (pseudonyms) and have them argue with each other in his newspaper. We’ve been in a world of information warfare for a very long time.”

Trump’s known position on AI is very volatile and easily influenceable. Elon Musk will be a “Minister of Artificial Intelligence” for this Trump legislative period, I’d argue. There is no other person in the Trump administration who has a clear voice and a strong opinion on Artificial Intelligence apart from Elon Musk. The candidate for the AI CZAR

Socialism is organised crime masquerading as political theory
https://x.com/opptattbruker/status/1862062666283438087?s=46

Five fingers of a museum:
-Collect
-Preserve
-Study
-Interpret
-Exhibit

Everything you do is a signal, or highlights from The Elephant in the Brain

The following are some notes, followed by a lot of highlights, from the book Elephant in the Brain by Kevin Simler and Robin Hanson [Amazon].

The book is about, in a word, signals. Everything we do is – in small and often large part – a signal to others:

We talk to seem smart and build alliances.

We make art to attract mates.

We donate to charity to impress neighbors.

We laugh to let people know that we’re ok, it’s just a game.

We pray to belong to a group.

We vote to show our loyalty.

Even this blog is a massive signal :P

Signals, signals, signals. Oh, and sex. Signals and sex.

In fact, this quote buried in the book’s footnotes might be the underlying reason behind all of the seemingly complicated but ultimately simple reasons behind why we do what we do:

As the philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer wrote about sexual love: “It is the ultimate goal of almost all human effort… . It knows how to slip its love-notes and ringlets even into ministerial portfolios and philosophical manuscripts”.

The below are all highlights copied verbatim from the book, which I highly recommend. Very much in the Yuval Harari “things are both more complicated and more simple than they seem” vein.

GENERAL HIGHLIGHTS

To understand the competitive side of human nature, we would do well to turn Matthew 7: 1 on its head: “Judge freely, and accept that you too will be judged.”

The essence of a norm, then, lies not in the words we use to describe it, but in which behaviors get punished and what form the punishment takes.

Collective enforcement, then, is the essence of norms. This is what enables the egalitarian political order so characteristic of the forager lifestyle.

Our ancestors did a lot of cheating. How do we know? One source of evidence is the fact that our brains have special-purpose adaptations for detecting cheaters. When abstract logic puzzles are framed as cheating scenarios, for example, we’re a lot better at solving them.

We assume that there is one person in each body, but in some ways we are each more like a committee whose members have been thrown together working at cross purposes.

There are dozens of schemes for how to divide up the mind. The Bible identifies the head and the heart. Freud gives us the id, ego, and superego. Iain McGilchrist differentiates the analytical left brain from the holistic right brain, while Douglas Kenrick gives us seven “subselves”: Night Watchman, Compulsive Hypochondriac, Team Player, Go-Getter, Swinging Single, Good Spouse, and Nurturing Parent.

What this means for self-deception is that it’s possible for our brains to maintain a relatively accurate set of beliefs in systems tasked with evaluating potential actions, while keeping those accurate beliefs hidden from the systems (like consciousness) involved in managing social impressions.

Or as Venkatesh Rao says, “We ‘shop around’ for careers. We look for prestigious brands to work for. We look for ‘fulfillment’ at work. Sometimes we even accept pay cuts to be associated with famous names. This is work as fashion accessory and conversation fodder”

All ads effectively have two audiences: potential product buyers, and potential product viewers who will credit the product owners with various desirable traits”

HUMOR AND LAUGHTER

The most important observation is that we laugh far more often in social settings than when we’re alone—30 times more often

When Provine studied 1,200 episodes of laughter overheard in public settings, his biggest surprise was finding that speakers laugh more than listeners—about 50 percent more, in fact.

“We’re just playing” is such an important message, it turns out, that many species have developed their own vocabulary for it. Dogs, for example, have a “play bow”—forearms extended, head down, hindquarters in the air—which they use to initiate a bout of play. Chimps use an open-mouthed “play face,” similar to a human smile, or double over and peer between their legs at their play partners.

We don’t laugh continuously throughout a play session, only when there’s something potentially unpleasant to react to.

In any given comedic situation, humor precedes and causes laughter, but when we step back and take a broader perspective, the order is reversed. Our propensity to laugh comes first and provides the necessary goal for humor to achieve.

First you need to get two or more people together. Then you must set the mood dial to “play.” Then you need to jostle things, carefully, so that the dial feints in the direction of “serious,” but quickly falls back to “play.” And only then will the safe come open, releasing the precious laugher locked inside.

what laughter illustrates is precisely the fact that our norms and other social boundaries aren’t etched in stone with black-and-white precision, but ebb and shift through shades of gray, depending on context.

If exchanging information were the be-all and end-all of conversation, then we would expect people to be greedy listeners and stingy speakers. Instead, we typically find ourselves with the opposite attitude

Our hearing apparatus remains evolutionarily conservative, very similar to that of other apes, while our speaking apparatus has been dramatically re-engineered. The burden of adaptation has fallen on speaking rather than listening.

you’re looking for a backpack full of tools that are both new to you and useful to the things you care about. If Henry can consistently delight you with new, useful artifacts, it speaks to the quality of his backpack and therefore his value as an ally.

In casual conversation, listeners have a mixture of these two motives. To some extent we care about the text, the information itself, but we also care about the subtext, the speaker’s value as a potential ally.

The competition to show off as a potential lover or leader also helps explain why language often seems more elaborate than necessary to communicate ideas—what the linguist John Locke calls “verbal plumage.”

listeners generally prefer speakers who can impress them wherever a conversation happens to lead, rather than speakers who steer conversations to specific topics where they already know what to say.

If conversation were primarily about reciprocal exchange, we’d be tempted to habitually deprecate what our partners were offering, in order to “owe” less in return

We find a similar regulatory function of laughter when a father throws his three-year-old daughter into the air and catches her. If the toddler laughs, dad knows she’s enjoying the game and wants it to continue. If instead she gives a yelp or an alarmed cry, dad knows to stop at once.

ART

Ellen Dissanayake’s characterization of art as anything “made special,” that is, not for some functional or practical purpose but for human attention and enjoyment

“During the breeding season,” writes Miller, “males spend virtually all day, every day, building and maintaining their bowers.” The reward for all this effort is more mating opportunities. A successful male bowerbird can mate with as many as 30 females in a single mating season.

human art is more than just a courtship display, that is, an advertisement of the artist’s value as a potential mate. It also functions as a general-purpose fitness display, that is, an advertisement of the artist’s health, energy, vigor, coordination, and overall fitness. Fitness displays can be used to woo mates, of course, but they also serve other purposes like attracting allies or intimidating rivals. And humans use art for all of these things.

Consider Leonardo da Vinci’s Mona Lisa, celebrated for its beautiful detail, the surreal backdrop, and of course the subject’s enigmatic smile. More visitors have seen the Mona Lisa in person—on display behind bulletproof glass at the Louvre—than any other painting on the planet. But when researchers Jesse Prinz and Angelika Seidel asked subjects to consider a hypothetical scenario in which the Mona Lisa burned to a crisp, 80 percent of them said they’d prefer to see the ashes of the original rather than an indistinguishable replica.

The advent of photography wreaked similar havoc on the realist aesthetic in painting. Painters could no longer hope to impress viewers by depicting scenes as accurately as possible, as they had strived to do for millennia. “In response,” writes Miller, “painters invented new genres based on new, non-representational aesthetics: impressionism, cubism, expressionism, surrealism, abstraction. Signs of handmade authenticity became more important than representational skill. The brush-stroke became an end in itself.”

Fashion often distinguishes itself from mere clothing by being conspicuously impractical, non-functional, and sometimes even uncomfortable.

We’re eager to evaluate art, reflect on it, criticize it, calibrate our criticisms with others, and push ourselves to new frontiers of discernment. And we do this even in art forms we have no intention of practicing ourselves. For every novelist, there are 100 readers who care passionately about fiction, but have no plans ever to write a novel.

Miller’s observation that “sexually mature males have produced almost all of the publicly displayed art throughout human history”

CHARITY

Anonymous donation, for example, is extremely rare. Only around 1 percent of donations to public charities are anonymous.

People seldom initiate donations on their own; up to 95 percent of all donations are given in response to a solicitation.

In 2011, Americans donated $ 298 billion to charity, of which only an estimated 13 percent ($ 39 billion) went to help foreigners.

Many studies have found that people, especially men, are more likely to give money when the solicitor is an attractive member of the opposite sex. Men also give more to charity when nearby observers are female rather than male.

As early as the 12th century, the Jewish philosopher Maimonides distinguished various “levels of charity” in part based on how anonymous the donor was. Acts of charity in which the donor is known to the recipient were considered less noble than anonymous acts.

EDUCATION

Each of the first three years of high school or college (the years that don’t finish a degree) are worth on average only about a 4 percent salary bump. But the last year of high school and the last year of college, where students complete a degree, are each worth on average about a 30 percent higher salary.

In a North Carolina school district, a one-hour delay in school start time—for example, from 7: 30 a.m. to 8: 30 a.m.—resulted in a 2 percentile gain in student performance.

a lot of the value of education lies in giving students a chance to advertise the attractive qualities they already have.
Caplan, for example, estimates that signaling is responsible for up to 80 percent of the total value of education.

This suggests that public K–12 schools were originally designed as part of nation-building projects, with an eye toward indoctrinating citizens and cultivating patriotic fervor. In this regard, they serve as a potent form of propaganda. We can see this function especially clearly in history and civics curricula, which tend to emphasize the rosier aspects of national issues.

Children are expected to sit still for hours upon hours; to control their impulses; to focus on boring, repetitive tasks; to move from place to place when a bell rings; and even to ask permission before going to the bathroom (think about that for a second). Teachers systematically reward children for being docile and punish them for “acting out,” that is, for acting as their own masters. In fact, teachers reward discipline independent of its influence on learning, and in ways that tamp down on student creativity. Children are also trained to accept being measured, graded, and ranked, often in front of others. This enterprise, which typically lasts well over a decade, serves as a systematic exercise in human domestication.

One recent study (Bruze 2015) suggests that, in Denmark, people are earning “on the order of half of their returns to schooling through improved marital outcomes.”

John Gatto said what many teachers surely recognize, but few are willing to state so baldly. “Schools and schooling,” he said, “are increasingly irrelevant to the great enterprises of the planet. No one believes anymore that scientists are trained in science classes or politicians in civics classes or poets in English classes. The truth is that schools don’t really teach anything except how to obey orders”

HEALTHCARE

Patients in higher-spending regions, who get more treatment for their conditions, don’t end up healthier, on average, than patients in lower-spending regions who get fewer treatments.

Today, it’s a better drug for reducing blood pressure. Tomorrow, a new and improved surgical technique. Why don’t these individual improvements add up to large gains in our aggregate studies? There’s a simple and surprisingly well-accepted answer to this question: most published medical research is wrong. (Or at least overstated.)

Patients and their families are often dismissive of simple cheap remedies, like “relax, eat better, and get more sleep and exercise.” Instead they prefer expensive, technically complicated medical care—gadgets, rare substances, and complex procedures, ideally provided by “the best doctor in town.” Patients feel better when given what they think is a medical pill, even when it is just a placebo that does nothing. And patients feel even better if they think the pill is more expensive.

Roughly 11 percent of all medical spending in the United States, for example, goes toward patients in their final year of life. And yet it’s one of the least effective (therapeutic) kinds of medicine.

As Alex Tabarrok puts it, “More people die from medical mistakes each year than from highway accidents, breast cancer, or AIDS and yet physicians still resist and the public does not demand even simple reforms.”

Investigators reported that people who reside in rural areas lived an average of 6 years longer than city dwellers, nonsmokers lived 3 years longer than smokers, and those who exercised a lot lived 15 years longer than those who exercised only a little.

Doctors, having witnessed the futility of heroic end-of-life care, are famously keen on avoiding it for themselves, when they become terminally ill.

RELIGION

They walk seven times counterclockwise around the Kaaba—the black, cube-shaped building at the center of the world’s largest mosque. (See Figure 5.) They also shave their heads; run back and forth between two hills; stand vigil from noon until sunset; drink water from the Zamzam well; camp overnight on the plain of Muzdalifa; sacrifice a lamb, goat, cow, or camel; and cast stones at three pillars in a symbolic stoning of the devil.

Many Jews, for example, consider themselves atheists, and yet continue practicing Judaism—going to temple, keeping kosher, and celebrating the high holidays.

Compared to their secular counterparts, religious people tend to smoke less, donate and volunteer more, have more social connections, get and stay married more, and have more kids. They also live longer, earn more money, experience less depression, and report greater happiness and fulfillment in their lives.

A religion, therefore, isn’t just a set of propositional beliefs about God and the afterlife; it’s an entire social system.

So whenever people make a sacrifice to your god, they’re implicitly showing loyalty to you—and to everyone else who worships at the same altar.

It’s easy to say, “I’m a Muslim,” but to get full credit, you also have to act like a Muslim—by answering the daily calls to prayer, for example, or undertaking the Hajj.

Yes, you probably have “better things to do” than listen to a sermon, which is precisely why you get loyalty points for listening patiently. In other words, the boredom of sermons may be a feature rather than a bug.

Note that positions of greater trust and authority require larger sacrifices; if the Pope had children, for example, his loyalty would be split between his family and his faith, and Catholics would have a harder time trusting him to lead the Church.

Note, however, that a community’s supply of social rewards is limited, so we’re often competing to show more loyalty than others—to engage in a “holier than thou” arms race.

All these sacrifices work to maintain high levels of commitment and trust among community members, which ultimately reduces the need to monitor everyone’s behavior. The net result is the ability to sustain cooperative groups at larger scales and over longer periods of time.

A 2012 Gallup poll, for instance, found that atheists came in dead last in electability, well behind other marginalized groups like Hispanics and gay people. In fact, Americans would sooner see a Muslim than an atheist in the Oval Office.

As Jason Weeden and colleagues have pointed out, religions can be understood, in part, as community-enforced mating strategies.

Our species, for reasons that aren’t entirely clear, is wired to form social bonds when we move in lockstep with each other. This can mean marching together, singing or chanting in unison, clapping hands to a beat, or even just wearing the same clothes.

The particular strangeness of Mormon beliefs, for example, testifies to the exceptional strength of the Mormon moral community. To maintain such stigmatizing beliefs in the modern era, in the face of science, the news media, and the Internet, is quite the feat of solidarity.

Haidt: “To resolve [the puzzle of religious participation], either you have to grant that religiosity is (or at least, used to be) beneficial or you have to construct a complicated, multi-step explanation of how humans in all known cultures came to swim against the tide of adaptation and do so much self-destructive religious stuff”

POLITICS

the literature on voting makes it clear that people mostly don’t vote for their material self-interest, that is, for the candidates and policies that would make them personally better off.

Real voters, however, show remarkably little concern for whether their votes are likely to make a difference. Swing states see only a modest uptick in turnout, somewhere between one and four percentage

When people are asked the same policy question a few months apart, they frequently give different answers—not because they’ve changed their minds, but because they’re making up answers on the spot, without remembering what they said last time.

The kicker? Stalin himself wasn’t even in the room. His cult of personality was strong enough to sustain 11 minutes of applause even in his absence. At least 600,000 people were killed in these ways during Stalin’s purges.

This helps explain why voters feel little pressure to be informed. As long as we adopt the “right” beliefs—those of our main coalitions—we get full credit for loyalty.

Within nations, our most devoted activists are plausibly those who see themselves as political “soldiers” fighting for a cause, but whom opponents see as political “terrorists,” since their actions risk hurting both themselves and others.