The Absent Superpower by Peter Zeihan (31 highlights)

For context, I highlighted so much of the book that Kindle stopped storing my highlights, so I could only share a subset below.

The book – and his other writings, he’s quite prolific – is well worth reading if you’re into geopolitics and global trade. At the very least it’ll challenge some of your assumptions and viewpoints.

A small selection of highlights below:

  • Americans are panic-prone. Every country has a series of early experiences that shape the national mindset. For the Americans it was century-long pioneer era: for the cost of a used car in today’s dollars, Americans could Conestoga the family out to the Midwest, break ground, and within six months be exporting grain for hard currency. It was the greatest cultural and economic expansion in human history, and it taught Americans that things will get better every single year.
  • Kids […] don’t factor economically in the modern age. They used to serve as free labor on farms, but once most populations relocated into urban environments children essentially transformed into luxury goods. Think of them as more expensive Shih Tzus.
  • As the American economy evolves into a dynamic, service-oriented system, as careers give way to jobs, jobs give way to part-time work, and as part-time work gives way to hobbies that happen to generate income, the Yers are actually fairly well-prepared socially, politically, and psychologically for the new era.
  • GenX is roughly one-fifth smaller than the Boomers —considering that GenX is younger, they should be one-quarter bigger —an imbalance so extreme that GenX will not outnumber the Boomers until most of the Xers are in their sixties.
  • Like most Americans I wasn’t really sure why the Americans had walked away from the Cold War without so much as the memory of a limp while Russia was a dismembered mess. Even today Americans flinch more visibly when they think of Vietnam than they do when they think of Russia, a country that still possesses the nuclear wherewithal to end American existence.
  • the vast swathes of internal Chinese territories are physically isolated and thus painfully poor. Adding political complications to the mix, most of China’s minority groups live in the interior and most of them are not exactly thrilled to be living in the People’s Republic. The interior is home to the remaining 600 million Chinese.
  • China has a local fuel—brown coal—and has it in abundance. Consequently, in most of the past 20 years, China has added more coal-burning capacity than most of the rest of the world combined despite lip service to international climate goals and rising domestic dissatisfaction with pollution levels.
  • NAFTA may have its faults, but its economic success in Mexico has made net Mexican migration to the U.S. negative for a decade because it gives Mexicans jobs. Smash the agreements that employ Mexicans, and two results among many will be vast increases in drug flows and illegal migration as Mexicans find it harder to find a 9-to-5.
  • In about a decade, instead of living in a world where the Americans are the most powerful force for global stability, they are likely to be the most powerful force for global instability.
  • Canada knows the United States intimately, while the United States barely registers what’s going on north of its border. (The only country that even comes close to studying the United States as intently is Israel)
  • Canada’s riven geography means every Canadian province trades more with the United States than with the rest of Canada
  • Chinese People universally despise North Korea, and would drop NK in a moment if Beijing would simply give it more than a second thought.   However, the fear China uses again and again is simple;  Let North Korea fall and refugees will flood across.  Ok. Fair enough.  However, the unspoken fear is that American combat divisions will simply race up to the border and dig in
  • With their rich cultural history, the Iranians consider themselves not only the natural leaders of the region, but also the peak of the human experience. In contrast, the Saudis are a Bedouin family that just happened to cut a deal with the British at the right time and have yet to celebrate their centenary celebration. Yet they command the world’s largest oil industry, wield power that is global in scope, and are the custodians of the Holy Cities.
  • Desert life is hard, and maintaining a social structure in the desert is harder still. One of the many ways in which the Saud clan coped was the adoption of an ultra-strict version of Islam, which glorified combat and tightly regulated personal freedoms. Locals call it Salafist Islam while many outsiders know it as Wahhabism, referring to the movement’s founder, one Sheikh Ibn Abdul Wahhab.
  • Unsurprisingly, Japan now suffers under the economic weight of supporting the world’s oldest population: Japanese labor costs—the highest in Asia and among the highest in the world—nudge up a bit higher every year and the country now purchases more diapers for adults than for children. Combined, these intermingled crises have manifested as seven recessions in under 25 years.
  • The Indian geography is a complex one, riddled with river valleys, deserts, plains, mountains, hills, swamp, and a mix of coastline styles. But one feature always stands out: the Ganges Basin. Set in the oddity of a temperate zone that knows no true winter, the plain’s outstanding fertility and multiple potential growing seasons generates the largest volume of calories per acre per year of anywhere in the world. However, the Ganges itself is not navigable. The result is fantastically high rates of population growth, but fantastically low capital generation per capita. Massive populations, but crushing poverty.
  • The United States is a maritime nation. Its most strategically relevant military arm is its Navy. The core of American strategic doctrine has always been about controlling the oceans and using that control to shape global events to its liking.
  • local labor forces are very attractive because they are higher skilled than their price point would suggest—particularly in Vietnam, which boasts that magic mix of modern urban centers like Ho Chi Minh City and rural zones combined with a far-above-global-average educational standards.
  • …the American retrenchment is but one of three massive shifts in the global the order. The second is the rapid greying of the entire global population. Fewer people of working age translates directly into anemic, decaying economies — enervating global trade just as the Americans stop guaranteeing it. Third and finally, the American shale revolution has changed the mechanics — if not yet the mood — of how the Americans interact with the energy sector.
  • The end of American dependence upon extra-continental energy sources does more than sever the largest of the remaining ties that bind America’s fate to the wider world, it sets into motion a veritable cavalcade of trends: the re-industrialization of the United States, the accelerated breakdown of the global order, and a series of wide-ranging military conflicts that will shape the next two decades.
  • Without petroleum there would not be a meaningful agricultural industry — and in that I mean everything from the growing of crops to the harvesting of crops to the transport of foodstuffs from farm to table.
  • In 1920 Congress passed the Jones Act, which barred any ship from plying the American waterways that was not American-built, American-owned, American-captained, and American-crewed.
  • The American system, with the Greater Midwest and Mississippi network at its core, is not only the richest piece of territory in the world, it also is the single-most secure.
  • You can lay most of the financial bubbles (and busts) of the past two decades at the Boomers’ feet — everything from dot-com to Enron to subprime to Brazil, Russia, India, and China — all were only possible because the Boomers were ignoring risk in the quest for that extra 1% of yield.
  • The Japanese economic breakdown of 1990 wasn’t demographic in origin, but Japan has since aged past the point that it will again be a consumption-led economy. Ever.
  • As soon as 2022, Germany, Belgium, Greece, Austria, and Italy will not be past just the point of not just demographic recovery — they and more have already crossed that threshold — but financial and economic recovery as well.
  • Japan, Korea, and Taiwan has never covered more than a tiny percentage (typically less than 1%) of their energy needs.
  • Since the 1990s television power demand is down by 35% despite massive increases in quality and size. Dishwashers use 40% less electricity, air conditioners 50% less, refrigerators 60%.
  • …it isn’t just the United States that is dipping into nativism. Japan is amending its constitution to make it easier to bomb people. China is crowning a new Mao. Britain voted itself out of the European Union. The Turkish president’s leadership makes Donald Trump seem shy by comparison, Poland’s government exudes the worst characteristics of Pope Innocent III and Kanye.
  • Russian security only comes from conquering everyone nearby in order to establish buffers around the Russian core.
  • the Russians often have to find ways to motivate their conquered populations — or more to the point, to intimidate their subjects into accepting the role the Russians demand of them. The Russians do this with a deep, intrusive, and cruel intelligence service. Under Lenin it was the Cheka, under Stalin the NVBD, and Brezhnev the KGB, after the Cold War the FSB, and now it’s the FSB backed up with the social-monitoring techniques Edward Snowden brought with him from the American NSA.

Highlights from The Everything Store about how Amazon was built: “If you’re not good, Jeff will chew you up and spit you out. And if you’re good, he will jump on your back and ride you into the ground.”

Brad Stone’s The Everything Store was a good book about Amazon’s journey. Like most long and successful journeys, the details are messy, but Brad is evenhanded and thorough at reporting and analyzing the facts.

Below are some of my favorite highlights, copied verbatim from the book, which I also bought from Amazon, and read on my Kindle app lol.

HIGHLIGHTS:

They agreed on five core values and wrote them down on a whiteboard in a conference room: customer obsession, frugality, bias for action, ownership, and high bar for talent. Later Amazon would add a sixth value, innovation.

As Amazon’s growth accelerated, Bezos drove employees even harder, calling meetings over the weekends, starting an executive book club that gathered on Saturday mornings, and often repeating his quote about working smart, hard, and long.

“There are two kinds of retailers: there are those folks who work to figure how to charge more, and there are companies that work to figure how to charge less, and we are going to be the second, full-stop,” he said in that month’s quarterly conference call with analysts, coining a new Jeffism to be repeated over and over ad nauseam for years.

Kim Rachmeler shared a favorite quote she heard from a colleague around that time. “If you’re not good, Jeff will chew you up and spit you out. And if you’re good, he will jump on your back and ride you into the ground.”

He gave Blue Origin a coat of arms and a Latin motto, Gradatim Ferociter, which translates to “Step by Step, Ferociously.” The phrase accurately captures Amazon’s guiding philosophy as well. Steady progress toward seemingly impossible goals will win the day. Setbacks are temporary. Naysayers are best ignored.

He simply refused to accept Amazon’s fate as an unexciting and marginally profitable online retailer. “There’s only one way out of this predicament,” he said repeatedly to employees during this time, “and that is to invent our way out.”

Bezos believed that high margins justified rivals’ investments in research and development and attracted more competition, while low margins attracted customers and were more defensible.

Bezos was clearly nervous about Netflix’s gathering momentum. With its recognizable red envelopes and late-fee-slaying DVD-by-mail program, it was forging a bond with customers and a strong brand in movies, a key media category. Bezos’s lieutenants met with CEO Reed Hastings several times during Netflix’s formative years but they always reported back that Hastings was “painfully uninterested” in selling

“Jeff does a couple of things better than anyone I’ve ever worked for,” Dalzell says. “He embraces the truth. A lot of people talk about the truth, but they don’t engage their decision-making around the best truth at the time. “The second thing is that he is not tethered by conventional thinking. What is amazing to me is that he is bound only by the laws of physics. He can’t change those. Everything else he views as open to discussion.”

“When given the choice of obsessing over competitors or obsessing over customers, we always obsess over customers,” he said

Target had outsourced its online operations to Amazon in 2001 but the relationship was far from perfect, with joint projects frequently falling behind schedule. “We had no resources to build infrastructure for Target,” says Faisal Masud, who worked on the Target business at Amazon. “It was all about Amazon first and Target next.”

He told business-development vice president Peter Krawiec not to spend over a certain amount to buy Quidsi but to make sure that Amazon did not, under any circumstances, lose the deal to Walmart.

“For different reasons, in different ways and to different degrees, companies like Apple, Nike, Disney, Google, Whole Foods, Costco and even UPS strike me as examples of large companies that are well-liked by their customers.” On the other end of spectrum, he added, companies like Walmart, Microsoft, Goldman Sachs, and ExxonMobil tended to be feared.

Regret, that formidable adversary Jeff Bezos worked so hard to outrun, hangs heavily over the life of his biological father.

The entire company is scaffolding built around his brain—an amplification machine meant to disseminate his ingenuity and drive across the greatest possible radius. “It’s scaffolding to magnify the thinking embodied by Jeff, to the greatest extent possible,” says Jeff Wilke when I bounce that theory off him. “Jeff was learning as he went along. He learned things from each of us who had expertise and incorporated the best pieces into his mental model. Now everyone is expected to think as much as they can like Jeff.”

It is easy to draw a straight line from the vision he had back then to the Amazon of today. There were a few little wobbles and detours in places, but really I don’t know any other company that has created such a juggernaut that is so consistent with the original ideas of the founder. It is almost like he fired an arrow and then followed that arc.

“The Internet is disrupting every media industry, Charlie,” he said. “You know, people can complain about that, but complaining is not a strategy.”

2019 Personal Bible – some updates and favorite excerpts

My personal bible is just a pdf doc where I save my favorite writings, notes, and thoughts. I try to read a little from it each day, and occasionally return to the original source material for that extra sauce.

Here’s the latest copy you can download.

Below are two recent additions – a fun-to-read academic essay explaining the qualities that elevate regular swimmers to the elite ranks, and excerpts from the Analects of Confucius (not as fun a read, but y’know).

All are verbatim highlights unless otherwise noted.

I’m reminded of an anecdote about how Confucianism, Daoism, and Buddhism differ. The three founders – Confucius, Lao Tzu, and Buddha are tasting vinegar. Confucius notes the vinegar is sour (Confucianism = sour; society has many degenerate people). Lao Tzu says the vinegar is sweet (Daoism = sweet; universe is guided by the harmony of the Dao). And Buddha thinks the vinegar is bitter (Buddhism = bitter; life is difficult, learn to detach).

Or another saying that I’ve heard is “the Chinese are Confucians at work, Daoists at leisure, and Buddhists at death.”

I wonder what the American version would be?

Happy 2019! In one month, it’ll be the Year of the Pig 🐷

***

The Mundanity of Excellence notes

The main differences between less and more elite swimmers:

1. Technique – Not only are the strokes different, they are so different that the “C” swimmer may be amazed to see how the “AAAA” swimmer looks when swimming. The appearance alone is dramatically different
2. Discipline – Diver Greg Louganis, who won two Olympic gold medals in 1984, practices only three hours each day—not a long time—divided into two or three sessions. But during each session, he tries to do every dive perfectly
3. Attitude – The very features of the sport that the “C” swimmer finds unpleasant, the top-level swimmer enjoys. What others see as boring—swimming back and forth over a black line for two hours, say—they find peaceful, even meditative, often challenging, or therapeutic. They enjoy hard practices, look forward to difficult competitions, try to set difficult goals

Athletes move up to the top ranks through qualitative jumps: noticeable changes in their techniques, discipline, and attitude, accomplished usually through a change in settings, e.g., joining a new team with a new coach, new friends, etc., who work at a higher level

Talent is often recognized after the fact – conveniently after all the skill acquisition and hard work have already been invested – …despite the physical capabilities he was born with, it took Peter several years (six by our estimate) to appear gifted. […] Most of them are said to be “natural” or “gifted” after they had already devoted a great deal of time and hard work to the field

Superlative performance is really a confluence of dozens of small skills or activities, each one learned or stumbled upon, which have been carefully drilled into habit and then are fitted together in a synthesized whole

In the pursuit of excellence, maintaining mundanity is the key psychological challenge

***

The Analects of Confucius

The superior man does not, even for the space of a single meal, act contrary to virtue. In moments of haste, he cleaves to it. In seasons of danger, he cleaves to it.

The Master said of Zi Chan that he had four of the characteristics of a superior man -in his conduct of himself, he was humble; in serving his superior, he was respectful; in nourishing the people, he was kind; in ordering the people, he was just.

There were four things from which the Master was entirely free. He had no foregone conclusions, no arbitrary predeterminations, no obstinacy, and no egoism.

The Master said, “Hold faithfulness and sincerity as first principles. Have no friends not equal to yourself. When you have faults, do not fear to abandon them.”

The Master said, “The firm, the enduring, the simple, and the modest are near to virtue.”

Some one asked about him, saying, “I suppose he has made great progress.” The Master said, “I observe that he is fond of occupying the seat of a full-grown man; I observe that he walks shoulder to shoulder with his elders. He is not one who is seeking to make progress in learning. He wishes quickly to become a man.”

Zi Gong asked, saying, “Is there one word which may serve as a rule of practice for all one’s life?” The Master said, “Is not RECIPROCITY such a word? What you do not want done to yourself, do not do to others.”

Confucius said, “There are three things which the superior man guards against. In youth, when the physical powers are not yet settled, he guards against lust. When he is strong and the physical powers are full of vigor, he guards against quarrelsomeness. When he is old, and the animal powers are decayed, he guards against covetousness.”

With coarse rice to eat, with water to drink, and my bended arm for a pillow – I have still joy in the midst of these things

Too much general writing advice – collected notes from William Zinsser, Brandon Sanderson, Sol Stein, and lots more

The below is a collection of all the writing notes and quotes that I’ve gathered over the years. Peruse at your leisure!

No one wants to read about Odysseus leaving the sack of Troy, sailing home in moderate weather and settling down to focus on that urban renewal project he’s been putting off. – Jim Butcher

Brandon Sanderson, writing lectures notes
* “Protagonists gonna protag.”
* in Jane Austen’s work, the underlying rule of the world is “The romantic interests end up together.”
* Tragedy — a character longs for something he should not have, and acquires it at a devastating cost
* Be especially interested in setting them at odds with whatever is going to happen to them: Bilbo is interesting because he simultaneously wants and does not want to go on an adventure.
* When folks pick up your book, they are going to notice your prose first. They judge whether they keep reading based almost entirely on that.
* Sanderson writes a book guide before starting any new book. The main concerns are:
* What promises am I making (about the style of story and what will happen at the end)?
* What kind of story is this?
* How will I give a sense of progress?
* How will my resolution fulfill all the promises that need to be fulfilled in this story?
* Many of the characters we love are preternaturally good at one or two particular things. Hermione is Preternaturally Intelligent; Samwise Gamgee is Preternaturally Loyal; Katniss Everdeen is Preternaturally Gritty.
* Your goal is to keep your character from being defined by a single thing, particularly their role. Characters defined by their roles quickly become stereotypes.
* Be sure to let your cool ideas play together. Let the Topography influence the Religion. Let the Government influence the Magic. When they influence and play off each other, they’ll generate greater depth for your story.

From Jim Butcher’s (Dresden Files) blog:
1. Make the introduction for each character count. This is something you can’t afford to screw up.
2. Make promises as early as you can

“Write in a trance, act in a trance” – Mike Birbiglia

PG’s writing advice; my favorites:
* write a bad version 1 as fast as you can
* expect 80% of the ideas in an essay to happen after you start writing it, and 50% of those you start with to be wrong be confident enough to cut
* …just say the most important sentence first
* read your essays out loud to see…which bits are boring (the paragraphs you dread reading)
* write for a reader who won’t read the essay as carefully as you do

PG on essays
* When I give a draft of an essay to friends, there are two things I want to know: which parts bore them, and which seem unconvincing.
* Essayer is the French verb meaning “to try” and an essai is an attempt. An essay is something you write to try to figure something out.
* An essay you publish ought to tell the reader something he didn’t already know.
* The river’s algorithm is simple. At each step, flow down. For the essayist this translates to: flow interesting. Of all the places to go next, choose the most interesting.
* Surprises are things that you not only didn’t know, but that contradict things you thought you knew. And so they’re the most valuable sort of fact you can get.

Ian McEwan’s writing habits from YouTube
* start work at 9, 9:30am, work until lunch
* if going well, continue into afternoon and evening
* generally leave afternoons for reading, serious reading
* good bit of work, good day is 500-800 words
* huge desk that he built himself, in a large study/library, filled with books
* “good day is to work all day in the knowledge that you’ll see an interesting friend in the evening”
* like the sense that there’ll be food and wine from about 7:30pm on

Ian McEwan: “literature thrives on conflict” from YouTube
* “it’s very difficult to do happiness in novels in a sustained way, we really leave that to poetry, lyric poetry, which can see our moments. its the nature of the human condition that we’re only truly happy in bursts, we can’t be constantly happy”
* very hard to make happiness work in novels, leave that to lyric poetry, because nature of happiness is momentary, poetry captures the moments
* Anna Karenina one of loveliest, most prolonged episodes of what it is to be profoundly in love, visitor arrives, and the moment vanishes
* danger that you’ll seem sentimental, smug, unreal
* “literature loves difficulty, thrives on conflict”
* “we’re right to leave best expressions of love to poets”
* “we like tangles and complications, especially in short stories”
* writers don’t have to retire early, they accumulate more life, more love, more disappointments, more of everything
* what they lose is the fabulous energy of the late 20s, early 30s
* doesn’t believe Milan Kundera: “writers have to plunder their life up to age of 35″
* “its the fleetingness that gives love its precious quality”
* “the slow collapse of your body becomes a subject in itself”
* “i think of myself as a toddler in the business of being old”
* in 70s, believed you shouldn’t describe a person’s thoughts, allude to it, clues, physical descriptions, environment, what they said or did <— realized this was wrong
* re: novels, “we have not yet invented another art form that allows us such access to the minds of others”

I’m in no hurry to send something off just after I write it, and I sometimes keep it around the house for months doing this or that to it, taking this out and putting that in. It doesn’t take that long to do the first draft of the story, that usually happens in one sitting, but it does take a while to do the various versions of the story. I’ve done as many as twenty or thirty drafts of a story. Never less than ten or twelve drafts. It’s instructive, and heartening both, to look at the early drafts of great writers. I’m thinking of the photographs of galleys belonging to Tolstoy, to name one writer who loved to revise. I mean, I don’t know if he loved it or not, but he did a great deal of it. He was always revising, right down to the time of page proofs. He went through and rewrote War and Peace eight times and was still making corrections in the galleys. – Raymond Carver

Kurt Vonnegut: 8 rules on writing a great story from Brain Pickings
1. Use the time of a total stranger in such a way that he or she will not feel the time was wasted.
2. Give the reader at least one character he or she can root for.
3. Every character should want something, even if it is only a glass of water.
4. Every sentence must do one of two things — reveal character or advance the action.
5. Start as close to the end as possible.
6. Be a Sadist. No matter how sweet and innocent your leading characters, make awful things happen to them-in order that the reader may see what they are made of.
7. Write to please just one person. If you open a window and make love to the world, so to speak, your story will get pneumonia.
8. Give your readers as much information as possible as soon as possible. To hell with suspense. Readers should have such complete understanding of what is going on, where and why, that they could finish the story themselves, should cockroaches eat the last few pages.

First rule: Do not use semicolons. They are transvestite hermaphrodites representing absolutely nothing. All they do is show you’ve been to college. – Vonnegut

On Writing Well by William Zinsser (also in a previous blog post)
* Nobody told all the new computer writers that the essence of writing is rewriting. Just because they’re writing fluently doesn’t mean they’re writing well.
* Consider all the prepositions that are draped onto verbs that don’t need any help. We no longer head committees. We head them up. We don’t face problems anymore. We face up to them when we can free up a few minutes.
* Often a difficult problem in a sentence can be solved by simply getting rid of it.
* “Experiencing” is one of the worst clutterers. Even your dentist will ask if you are experiencing any pain. If he had his own kid in the chair he would say, “Does it hurt?”
* Beware, then, of the long word that’s no better than the short word: “assistance” (help), “numerous” (many), “facilitate” (ease), “individual” (man or woman), “remainder” (rest), “initial” (first), “implement” (do), “sufficient” (enough), “attempt” (try), “referred to as” (called)
* Most first drafts can be cut by 50 percent without losing any information or losing the author’s voice.
* It’s amazing how often an editor can throw away the first three or four paragraphs of an article, or even the first few pages, and start with the paragraph where the writer begins to sound like himself or herself.
* Sell yourself, and your subject will exert its own appeal. Believe in your own identity and your own opinions. Writing is an act of ego, and you might as well admit it.
* You are writing primarily to please yourself, and if you go about it with enjoyment you will also entertain the readers who are worth writing for.
* Trust your material if it’s taking you into terrain you didn’t intend to enter but where the vibrations are good.
* But take special care with the last sentence of each paragraph—it’s the crucial springboard to the next paragraph.
* The perfect ending should take your readers slightly by surprise and yet seem exactly right.
* Surprise is the most refreshing element in nonfiction writing.
* Don’t say you were a bit confused and sort of tired and a little depressed and somewhat annoyed. Be confused. Be tired. Be depressed. Be annoyed.
* Humor is best achieved by understatement, and there’s nothing subtle about an exclamation point.
* Many of us were taught that no sentence should begin with “but.” If that’s what you learned, unlearn it—there’s no stronger word at the start.
* …it is still widely believed—a residue from school and college—that “which” is more correct, more acceptable, more literary. It’s not. In most situations, “that” is what you would naturally say and therefore what you should write.
* Most of the nudgers urged me to adopt the plural: to use “readers” and “writers,” followed thereafter by “they.” I don’t like plurals; they weaken writing because they are less specific than the singular, less easy to visualize.
* The longer I work at the craft of writing, the more I realize that there’s nothing more interesting than the truth.
* When you use a quotation, start the sentence with it. Don’t lead up to it with a vapid phrase saying what the man said.
* Memoir isn’t the summary of a life; it’s a window into a life, very much like a photograph in its selective composition.
* The answer is that if you’re trying to write humor, almost everything you do is serious. Few Americans understand this.
* Joseph Heller and Stanley Kubrick heightened the truth about war just enough to catch its lunacy, and we recognize it as lunacy.
* There is a kind of writing that sounds so relaxed that you think you hear the author talking to you. E. B. White was probably its best practitioner
* Here’s how a typical piece by E. B. White begins: I spent several days and nights in mid-September with an ailing pig and I feel driven to account for this stretch of time, more particularly since the pig died at last, and I lived, and things might easily have gone the other way round and none left to do the accounting.
* Writing that will endure tends to consist of words that are short and strong; words that sedate are words of three, four and five syllables, mostly of Latin origin, many of them ending in “ion” and embodying a vague concept.
* “What does it take to be a comic writer?” He said, “It takes audacity and exuberance and gaiety, and the most important one is audacity.” Then he said: “The reader has to feel that the writer is feeling good.”
* My only consolation is that I’ll get another shot at those dismal sentences tomorrow and the next day and the day after. With each rewrite I try to force my personality onto the material.
* Writers who write interestingly tend to be men and women who keep themselves interested. That’s almost the whole point of becoming a writer.
* The moral for nonfiction writers is: think broadly about your assignment. Don’t assume that an article for Audubon has to be strictly about nature, or an article for Car & Driver strictly about cars.
* As an editor and a teacher I’ve found that the most untaught and underestimated skill in nonfiction writing is how to organize a long article: how to put the jigsaw puzzle together.
* Two final words occur to me. One is quest, the other is intention.
* narrative—good old-fashioned storytelling—is what should pull your readers along without their noticing the tug. The only thing they should notice is that you have made a sensible plan for your journey. Every step should seem inevitable.
* When you get such a message from your material—when your story tells you it’s over, regardless of what subsequently happened—look for the door.
* Writing is a powerful search mechanism, and one of its satisfactions is to come to terms with your life narrative. Another is to work through some of life’s hardest knocks—loss, grief, illness, addiction, disappointment, failure—and to find understanding and solace.
* The small stories that still stick in your memory have a resonance of their own. Trust them.
* You must find some way to elevate your act of writing into an entertainment. Usually this means giving the reader an enjoyable surprise. Any number of devices will do the job: humor, anecdote, paradox, an unexpected quotation, a powerful fact, an outlandish detail, a circuitous approach, an elegant arrangement of words.

From David Ogilvy’s 10 tips on writing
2. Write the way you talk. Naturally.
3. Use short words, short sentences and short paragraphs.
7. Never send a letter or a memo on the day you write it. Read it aloud the next morning — and then edit it

Write freely and as rapidly as possible and throw the whole thing on paper. Never correct or rewrite until the whole thing is down. Rewrite in process is usually found to be an excuse for not going on. It also interferes with flow and rhythm which can only come from a kind of unconscious association with the material.
-John Steinbeck

Highlights from Joseph Romm’s Language Intelligence book
* Lincoln continued his passion for poetry and Shakespeare throughout his entire life. He spent hours reading passages from Shakespeare to his personal secretary, John Hay, and the artist F. B. Carpenter.
* The second most retweeted tweet of 2010 was from the rapper Drake: “We always ignore the ones who adore us, and adore the ones who ignore us.” That’s a classic chiasmus
* The power of repetition: Michael Deaver, the Karl Rove of the Reagan presidency, said in 2003 of the Bush White House: “This business of saying the same thing over and over and over again—which to a lot of Washington insiders and pundits is boring—works. That was sort of what we figured out in the Reagan White House. And I think these people do it very, very well.”
* Ultimately, the reason foreshadowing works, and the reason we can expect more of it in popular culture and political coverage is that we like to believe that people’s individual lives have a circularity, a consistency—a pattern.
* “To be a master of metaphor,” Aristotle writes in Poetics, is “a sign of genius, since a good metaphor implies intuitive perception of the similarity in dissimilars.”
* Rumsfeld is particularly good at asking questions that he then answers: “Is it [post-war Iraq] going to be as efficient as a dictatorship? No. Is it going to be vastly more desirable? You bet.”
* DON’T DENY, STATE AND ASSERT A DIFFERENT THING: The authors found that rather than deny a false claim, it is better to make a completely new assertion that makes no reference to the original myth. It takes a lot of message discipline to do this, but if you want to debunk a myth, you need to focus on stating the truth, not repeating the myth. […] Richard Nixon said, “I am not a crook,” and only his final word still rings in our ears.

Ernest Hemingway’s Basic Principles of Writing [link]
2) Master your subject through experience and reading.
3) Work in disciplined isolation.
4) Begin early in the morning and concentrate for several hours each day.
7) Stop writing when things are going well and you know what will happen next so that you have sufficient momentum to continue the next day.
10) Work continuously on a project once you start it.
11) Keep a record of your daily progress.

From various George Orwell essays

Orwell says every scrupulous writer should ask these questions
1. What am I trying to say?
2. What words will express it?
3. What image or idiom will make it clearer?
4. Is this image fresh enough to have an effect?
5. Could I put it more shortly?
6. Have I said anything that is avoidably ugly?

(i) Never use a metaphor, simile, or other figure of speech which you are used to seeing in print.
(ii) Never use a long word where a short one will do.
(iii) If it is possible to cut a word out, always cut it out.
(iv) Never use the passive where you can use the active.
(v) Never use a foreign phrase, a scientific word, or a jargon word if you can think of an everyday English equivalent.
(vi) Break any of these rules sooner than say anything outright barbarous.

Writing a book is a horrible, exhausting struggle, like a long bout of some painful illness. One would never undertake such a thing if one were not driven on by some demon whom one can neither resist nor understand. For all one knows that demon is simply the same instinct that makes a baby squall for attention. – Orwell

I see that it is invariably where I lacked a political purpose that I wrote lifeless books – Orwell

George R.R. Martin interview w/ Walt and Kara from YouTube
* spent 10 years in TV and film
* constantly got feedback that scripts had too many characters, action, complexity
* for GoT, “let it all hang out”, didn’t have limits of Hollywood
* stopped predicting when his books will come out, he’s always wrong and it upsets people
* George quizzed his showrunners at an early meeting, “who is Jon Snow’s mother?”
* me: theory is Jon Snow is Ned Stark’s sister Lyanna’s son with Rhaeger Targaryen
* “characters are what it’s all about for me”
* doesn’t believe fantasy and sci-fi are different, it’s like different furniture, it’s all about the characters
* reads and studies a lot of history, borrows liberally
* “if you steal from one person it’s plagiarism, if you steal from many it’s research”
* George still writes on a DOS computer with Wordstar 4.0
* huge advantages to working with HBO: doesn’t censor adult content, larger budget, doesn’t worship ratings, commits to entire seasons and not just 2-3 episodes
* thinks The Wire is one of the greatest shows on TV

Sol Stein’s book Stein on Writing
* Use real people as your models for characters — instant recognition, visual imagery, emotional bonding
* Great fiction paints pictures
* Great fiction uses lots of immediate scene (“the man looks up and sees the grey clouds slowly forming”), less narrative summary and description
* Your lead is KEY. The first sentence, paragraph, and page must GRAB the reader
* Fiction evokes EMOTION. Nonfiction conveys INFORMATION
* Normal conversations has filler and echoes but dialogue should only include them if it serves a purpose (e.g., no “Oh”, “Um”, “How are you?” in reply to “How are you?”
* Try reading dialogue in monotone to force the WORDS to do all the work
* Twain: “If you catch an adjective, kill it”
* Great titles use METAPHOR
* “a farewell to arms”
* “grapes of wrath”
* “red badge of courage”
* me: all of GoT uses metaphor (A Storm of Swords, A Feast for Crows, A Dance with Dragons)
* EVOKE rather than EMOTE
* Good writing has PARTICULARITY – not just detail, but detail unique to a person, scene, object
* Tension is Latin for “to stretch” – caused by moments of uncertainty

John McPhee on how to write
* all about the lead, it should shine “like a flashlight down the rest of the piece”, once you have it the whole thing is easier
* read it aloud to yourself or someone else
* always try to make things simpler, use shorter words
* requires all his students to create a structure/outline of their piece first

How Steven Johnson writes from YouTube
* 2-3 hours at time
* has a study in basement
* 1st cup coffee ok, one glass of wine in evenings after kid sleeps, anything more is counter-productive
* when writing book, likes to write 500 words a day

How to write better: fresh favorite highlights from William Zinsser’s On Writing Well

I recently stumbled my highlights from William Zinsser’s classic book, On Writing Well [Amazon]. His advice is still as relevant now as it was in 1976 when first published.

I’ve already shared some highlights, but now there’s even more :).

Writing advice is like a food recipe: you should read several versions, memorize the ingredients and principles, and then let your creative mind and personal taste do the rest.

Highlights:

Nobody told all the new computer writers that the essence of writing is rewriting. Just because they’re writing fluently doesn’t mean they’re writing well.

Consider all the prepositions that are draped onto verbs that don’t need any help. We no longer head committees. We head them up. We don’t face problems anymore. We face up to them when we can free up a few minutes.

“Experiencing” is one of the worst clutterers. Even your dentist will ask if you are experiencing any pain. If he had his own kid in the chair he would say, “Does it hurt?”

Don’t inflate what needs no inflating: “with the possible exception of” (except), “due to the fact that” (because), “he totally lacked the ability to” (he couldn’t), “until such time as” (until), “for the purpose of” (for).

Most first drafts can be cut by 50 percent without losing any information or losing the author’s voice.

It’s amazing how often an editor can throw away the first three or four paragraphs of an article, or even the first few pages, and start with the paragraph where the writer begins to sound like himself or herself.

Sell yourself, and your subject will exert its own appeal. Believe in your own identity and your own opinions. Writing is an act of ego, and you might as well admit it.

Editors and readers don’t know what they want to read until they read it. Besides, they’re always looking for something new.

You are writing primarily to please yourself, and if you go about it with enjoyment you will also entertain the readers who are worth writing for.

Master the small gradations between words that seem to be synonyms. What’s the difference between “cajole,” “wheedle,” “blandish” and “coax”?

“the pen must at length comply with the tongue,” as Samuel Johnson said, and that today’s spoken garbage may be tomorrow’s written gold.

Another choice is unity of mood. You might want to talk to the reader in the casual voice that The New Yorker has strenuously refined.

every successful piece of nonfiction should leave the reader with one provocative thought that he or she didn’t have before. Not two thoughts, or five—just one.

Trust your material if it’s taking you into terrain you didn’t intend to enter but where the vibrations are good.

The most important sentence in any article is the first one. If it doesn’t induce the reader to proceed to the second sentence, your article is dead.

One moral of this story is that you should always collect more material than you will use. Every article is strong in proportion to the surplus of details from which you can choose the few that will serve you best…

The perfect ending should take your readers slightly by surprise and yet seem exactly right.

Something I often do in my writing is to bring the story full circle—to strike at the end an echo of a note that was sounded at the beginning.

Don’t say you were a bit confused and sort of tired and a little depressed and somewhat annoyed. Be confused. Be tired. Be depressed. Be annoyed. Don’t hedge your prose with little timidities. Good writing is lean and confident.

Among good writers it is the short sentence that predominates, and don’t tell me about Norman Mailer—he’s a genius.

Humor is best achieved by understatement, and there’s nothing subtle about an exclamation point.

Many of us were taught that no sentence should begin with “but.” If that’s what you learned, unlearn it—there’s no stronger word at the start.

Surprisingly often a difficult problem in a sentence can be solved by simply getting rid of it.

Keep your paragraphs short. Writing is visual—it catches the eye before it has a chance to catch the brain.

Most rewriting consists of reshaping and tightening and refining the raw material you wrote on your first try. Much of it consists of making sure you’ve given the reader a narrative flow he can follow with no trouble from beginning to end.

The longer I work at the craft of writing, the more I realize that there’s nothing more interesting than the truth.

I’m not saying that fiction is dead. Obviously the novelist can take us into places where no other writer can go: into the deep emotions and the interior life.

When you use a quotation, start the sentence with it. Don’t lead up to it with a vapid phrase saying what the man said. BAD: Mr. Smith said that he liked to “go downtown once a week and have lunch with some of my old friends.”

Finally, don’t strain to find synonyms for “he said.” Don’t make your man assert, aver and expostulate just to avoid repeating “he said,” and please—please!—don’t write “he smiled” or “he grinned.” I’ve never heard anybody smile.

Memoir is the art of inventing the truth.

A tenet of journalism is that “the reader knows nothing.” As tenets go, it’s not flattering, but a technical writer can never forget it.

The ego of the modern athlete has in turn rubbed off on the modern sportswriter. I’m struck by how many sportswriters now think they are the story, their thoughts more interesting than the game they were sent to cover.

It’s necessary, in short, to be a critic—which, at some point in his or her career, almost every writer wants to be.

We like good critics as much for their personality as for their opinions.

How should a good piece of criticism start? You must make an immediate effort to orient your readers to the special world they are about to enter.

The most boring sentence in the daily newspaper is the last sentence of the editorial, which says “It is too early to tell whether the new policy will work” or “The effectiveness of the decision remains to be seen.”

Writing that will endure tends to consist of words that are short and strong; words that sedate are words of three, four and five syllables, mostly of Latin origin, many of them ending in “ion” and embodying a vague concept.

Writers who write interestingly tend to be men and women who keep themselves interested. That’s almost the whole point of becoming a writer.

any time you can tell a story in the form of a quest or a pilgrimage you’ll be ahead of the game.

Readers should always feel that you know more about your subject than you’ve put in writing.

When you get such a message from your material—when your story tells you it’s over, regardless of what subsequently happened—look for the door.

Writing is a powerful search mechanism, and one of its satisfactions is to come to terms with your life narrative. Another is to work through some of life’s hardest knocks—loss, grief, illness, addiction, disappointment, failure—and to find understanding and solace.