“Artificial intelligence has the verbal skills of a four-year-old”

This was written in 2013.

Over the decades it has become apparent that simply throwing more processor cycles at the problem of true artificial intelligence isn’t going to cut it. A brain is orders of magnitude more complex than any AI system developed thus far, but some are getting closer.

And in the seven years since this post, we now have GPT-3, capable of writing essays at least as good as college graduates, on just about any topic that interests you, whether that’s cryptocurrencies or the history of feudalism or the chemistry of marijuana.

I’m not trying to single out this article. It’s just a powerful reminder of how difficult it is for anybody to properly assess current technology, because of our inability to fully grasp the effects of exponential growth and the surprises of non-linear innovation.

We keep trying to peer into the future, and we keep being surprised when the future actually arrives.

What else are we getting wrong about our technologies of today? What other technologies have the skills or experience of a four year old?

A few come to mind: Virtual reality. Blockchains. Robots (although this is increasingly not the case).

A very thoughtful long essay: Jeff Lonsdale’s 2020 predictions

Below are some of my favorite bits, and here’s the full essay.

A very small subreddit will have experts happily engaging with neophytes, while a place with a large commentator base will often put discussions around tribal dynamics first and foremost.

You can say things about people you could never say on Twitter or in blog format. This makes for a golden age of podcasting that might not last as long as we would like.

In a move called the yellow economy, protesters are using apps that lets them know which businesses are in favor of the protests so they can support them and ignore the so-called blue businesses that are owned by people who support the CCP and current establishment in Hong Kong.

There will be a continuing fight between governments who want cheap telecom technology and are willing to expose their infrastructure to the Chinese and those who want to stick to systems that implicitly allow surveillance by the US and its allies.

Korea already implemented a Cinderella law, doesn’t let kids under the age of 16 play between midnight and six o’clock in the morning. But that wasn’t enough for some mental health professionals in Korea, who saw games as a cause of problems among young men, and they lobbied the World Health Organization to add an internet gaming disorder to its International Classification of Diseases. The WHO announced in 2019 that it will include the disorder in the its 2022 ICD.

Making games is expensive, and anything that can be done to derisk games is going to be done. This isn’t new. Farmville, the first major success on social, was really just a remix of Harvest Moon. League of Legends is a version of Dota, modified to increase the twitch gaming and remove aspects that overly complicate the game.

One thing that has been underrated this past decade is that most people were only cancelled after they let themselves be cancelled. Trump is the politician who blew this open, he didn’t let any allegation, true or false, bring him down. The people most at risk from cancel culture are the individuals and institutions who have enthusiastically wielded the tools of cancel culture.

the court of public opinion is stronger than before and it is vital to come out swinging against false allegations that other people see as credible. Making a lukewarm apology and then disappearing from public life is the equivalent of ceding the field to your enemies. For those looking for a non-Trump model for how this plays out, Carlos Ghosn’s very public pushback on the allegations made against him by Japan’s prosecutors and Nissan will serve as a template for others who have been unjustly accused.

Startup advice that’s too good not to share: “More than one benefit is a negative”

Advice from the legendary Andy Rachleff (Wealthfront, Benchmark) on how to find product market fit:

  • Savor surprises
  • Look for the good and double down on it
  • Stealth doesn’t matter
  • Don’t evaluate your growth hypothesis until you confirm your value hypothesis
  • The best ideas can come from the most unlikely team members
  • Word of mouth trumps promotion
  • Slowing decay can be more valuable than adding users
  • More than one benefit is a negative
  • Foolishness is the price of genius

See @daveambrose twitter thread for the complete list and more! :-)