All ants you see at work, all that explore the environment, all that go to war (which is total and myrmicidal) are female. Adult male ants are pitiful creatures by comparison. They have wings and can fly, huge eyes and genitalia, and small brains. They do no work for their mother and sisters, and have only one function in life: to inseminate virgin queens from other colonies during nuptial flights.
At first, most serve as attendants of the queen mother and her brood, from eggs to larvae and through pupae to newly emerged adults. Next they engage more in nest repair and miscellaneous other internal tasks. Finally, they become prone to service outside the nest, from sentinel to forager, to guard, to warrior. In a nutshell and put more plainly, where humans send their young adults into battle, ants send their old ladies.
I mostly publish podcast notes directly to Twitter these days, but when the notes aren’t well suited to that format I’ll continue to share them here.
Host: Cedric Chin @ Commonplace Expertise Guest: Lia DiBello (LDB) – cognitive neuroscientist / business consultant
Concept of strategic rehearsal – how to accelerate acquisition of expertise in different industries
LDB – obsessed with cognition, expertise
4th generation entrepreneur family “Business is cognition in action”
Cognitive agility is the new basic skill
Humans never stop changing
We actually grow new neurons all your life
In business, you can tell if you’re successful or not, good way to test & validate science
2008 NSF study – companies have similarities, business is a closed system like chess
Chess masters are all extremely different, but play with same boards and pieces, and they recognize other masters
What makes business superstars superstars? Who are one trick ponies, and who does well even in down markets?
Businesses only have 3-4 organizing forces
Talented people are very good at managing / organizing these forces
Each force can be complicated by and affect each other
1. Capital market – access to capital
2. Market (Demand)
3. Supply environment
A “One trick pony” leader is usually good at one leg but not all 3 – and usually that’s sales
Most transferrable skill is capital (#1) – availability of cash, how capital markets work
Hardest leg is #3 supply (operations)
CC – “The Outsiders” – Thorndike – profiles CEOs who are good capital allocators – every single one had a strong operator as second in command
“Business expertise is a form of distributed cognition”
Examples
-Biotech company where person who really understood the problem was in the wrong role
-CEO who saw financial crisis coming, but all of executive team had blindspot
In Europe, older / more established cos have important aristocratic and family connections – but often business acumen is lacking
We really don’t know ourselves
We didn’t evolve to have self knowledge – probably what keeps us going every day
Developed tool – Profiler – to collect data on individuals and teams – online business cases that they work through, simulate scenarios as CEO, predict outcomes
People who don’t do well at these predictions tend to be weak in one of the 3 legs
In their work w/ clients —
Problem is usually not what they think it is Opportunity (upside) is usually larger than what they think it is
Client work – Drug company thought they needed more drugs in pipeline
They found that pipeline wasn’t issue, it was bench chemistry / science – was really inefficient – automate some of earlier chemistry, have talent work on later stage work
Client work – Midwest foundry – believed problem was China – recommendation was to focus on the things that China can’t do, focus on specialty business
Did strategic rehearsal – gamified it – use ERP system, only make what you can sell, and must be on-time
Many didn’t understand concept of lead times, and were just making things to seem busy, didn’t understand costs of unsold / over made stuff
Effectively taught them principles of just-in-time manufacturing
We operate with a dominant framework – theory of mind – your brain on autopilot once you get good at something, saves energy
Shape of schemas is determined by environment, education – people who work together share common schemas, goal driven, look around and learn from others
SR interferes with those pre existing schemas – build environment that has high symbolic density, force you to make lots of decisions, 15 minutes with 60 decisions, doing it as a group, no time to stop and think
Autopilot takes over, replicate your bad habits, mistakes – it hurts to experience this so viscerally
Next day, start over from scratch, super dis equilibrated, no longer on autopilot, now new better ideas come to fore
Piaget – genetic epistemologist – levels of expertise emerge like a biological function, assimilate + accommodate, expand repertoire + schema, organize implicit theory
Vygotsky – all knowledge formed by culture, Marxist, shaped by social environment, memorize thru language all the concepts, practice / dialectical process with others to develop meaning and deep understanding
Expertise is in middle of these two
If you go to baby, first concept is grasping – it’s first malleable concept – one finger is ok, two fingers is surprised, then squeezing gets used to it, then three fingers, etc All our concepts start with our hands, working with them
What’s general form of strategic rehearsal
-Knowledge extraction
-Extract default model
-Pick a goal to construct the right mental model
-Look at financial indicators – compare to competitors – where is it underperforming – identify the problem / constraints and remove them and see what potential outcome would be
-13 proprietary factors
re: Diversity training – lectures and quizzes don’t work – but simulations with immediate feedback work much better (shown that it takes just 45 minutes to change behavior!)
Last few months crypto lull
Growth tech stocks doing poorly
General washout
Now back to idiosyncratic crypto world
Equities bounced off lows Are we entering stagflation? Or road bump to secular deflation?
Tech is long duration, story about future
Bonds and fiat are locking in huge losses
Investors realize they have to own growth, can’t sit in fiat or bonds, commodities prices will correct
Regardless of recession / stagflation, world can’t turn away from tech Longer term, people will allocate fixed % to crypto, and this % will grow
Rare that stocks and bonds go down at same time – happened in 2008 Only natural bond buyer is pensions – fixed annuity
Otherwise it’s just Central Bank – Europe, Japan, US – scary long term because it means government is lending to itself
Only works in secular deflation environment
Technology is wage dis-inflationary
Inflationary spike becomes dis-inflationary because it forces businesses to change, adapt more technology, reduce labor – eg, like ordering food from tablets instead of waiters This will only accelerate as boomers retire – some think this will be wage inflationary (labor reduces) – but it will be opposite because tech Overton window will open, bring more tech to increase automation / reduce need for labor
We will see this in every industry
If people wanted, they can live very cheap lives – like in Japan
Demographics are also deflationary (slowing population growth, birth rates)
Inflation will top Q2 (2022)
Govs want deflation now, by crushing demand, scaring everyone
They don’t think we’ll still have inflation in 3 years – they know it’s transitory
Stagflation = economy slows, recession, but there’s still wage and price growth
1970s similar environment – oil + commodity spike
Stagflation is dangerous – lots of mortgages + job destruction + rates cycle
Today’s different – less labor entering workforce
Many commodities can be substituted – eg, if gas prices high, people don’t go to movie theaters, etc
Media likes to talk about inflation, good for engagement / clicks – but secular deflation is harder to understand (even though reality in Japan for 30 years)
We won’t enter recession unless Fed forces it
Also will be massive easing in Japan and China
China has massive deflation problem coming – inflated house prices, shrinking demographics, no immigration – must print a lot of money to prop it up
Only question – can they handle rising food prices?
Given reliance on fertilizer which Russia controls
Crypto is entering big leagues now
But still too small for macro to really matter
Ukraine-Russia – no one can argue how speculative crypto is now
Net good – Ukraine using it, people can save wealth and escape
Most people view world as what “should happen” and what “shouldn’t happen” – should Putin have invaded? Etc
Better to focus not on “should”, but on what WILL happen next – and clearly crypto is out of bag
Also crypto in Middle East – parallel system of finance Benefits of credibly neutral systems
Geopolitical moves – instead of what should happen (“should crypto be adopted and used”), it’s a rational response to what is actually happening in world, and expected outcomes
We sanction people because we can’t arrest them – eg, Russian oligarchs
Suspension of rule of law in pursuit of higher purpose
What are the lines we can’t cross? Eg, we can’t kill dictators’ children
These depend on norms
Crypto can be used for sanctions too – there’s no tech that’s useful for people that ISN’T useful for criminals
Precarious subject since governments are actively writing crypto rules and regs right now
Each society will answer differently based on priorities
For example, India still buying Russian oil bc it’s a life or death necessity, and believe America is hypocritical because even America doesn’t follow its own sanctions (eg, still buying Russian oil too)
Short term, America / Ukraine will win Long term, other countries will move away from dependence on existing financial systems, embrace alternate systems / credibly neutral
West will continue to adopt crypto as freedom of values, speech Governments outside west will also adopt – credibly neutral money + platform
“Crypto will become all the things” Mega-political force – peer to peer encryption – not ban-able similar to how printing press isn’t ban-able
500 year epochs enabled by tech transitions
Printing press attacked power of Church, Church tried to ban it but ultimately failed
Hasu – “Printing press as disintermediating technology”
Now we’re seeing this with p2p internet encryption
US military said it’s military grade tech, we should ban it
Sovereign Individual – as we enter information society, work and value will be increasingly on internet, and nation state monopoly on violence / control will weaken
Where you’re born will have less claim on your productivity Very disruptive to large governments
Hasu – Nation state is one of great innovations in world history – but today, would be great to have more competition / experimentation
People will move to places advantageous to self (eg, low tax), or with others they met online, setup their own communities
Generational gap never been bigger – older generations are shocked you can form these strong bonds online
Some older guys think internet is actually net-bad
But for young, all their social moments happen online
This pluralism will blow peoples’ minds
Hasu – need one country with free land to allow establish charter cities
In Japan, average age of farmer is 67, you can get free land if you move there and develop the land
China supporting more relaxation, less testing, less stress among young
See the troubles if stress / pressure on youth continue
Dubai – their biz model is sell land to foreigners – almost like metaverse – zero tax on everything, but I want you to buy land here – like a token gated community
Compelling flywheel – freedoms of a liberal monarchy
Monarchy which has business model to attract talent and capital
Liberal democracy promise is everyone gets a voice – but then majority tyranny over minority (eg, poor over rich, dominant ethnicity over ethnic minorities)
Nordic models seem to work
Peru – Fushimori abolished Parliament, very popular move with people who thought Parliament was corrupt and ineffective – transitioning democracy back to authoritarian / monarchy
Ethno-states will be on rise – only way people willing to sacrifice for nation
Crypto abstracts away idea that you must save in your native fiat – but instead save in common with global like-minded individuals
If huge institutions were buying and staking crypto, would almost be anachronism – individuals have been buying these dips, pushing crypto forward
Interesting end game – what are people doing to transact with each other, secure their own wealth? How will governments react to people doing this?
Guest: Alex Blania
Host: Sebastien Couture and Friederike Ernst
https://epicenter.tv/episodes/435
Background
-Vertical farming
-Caltech physics
Sam (Altman) was already working with Max on it Alex became friends with them, became a cofounder
Brought on friends from German uni, Caltech Lots of physicists as a result
He’s CEO, there’s 100 people, runs daily business
Sam is cofounder & chairman, involved in every big decision
Max is great zero to one guy
Started Worldcoin 2 years ago
How to accelerate societal transition into crypto & blockchain, should be net positive for society
Initially planned to launch a token, accessible to everyone How to solve sybil resistance so everyone gets a fair share?
Built hardware device, “the orb” to verify this It’s a platform for other projects, as well as for their own token (Worldcoin)
Onboarded 450K users already, now ready to scale
Initially thought about sybil resistance for months
Lots of existing solutions with problems – KYC, network topology Only truly scalable solution is biometrics (it’s unique to each person, only need to do it once)
You can use ZKP in crypto to make it privacy preserving while maintaining scale
Didn’t want to make a hardware device, it’s a brutal endeavor
The Orb “Proof of personhood” – how to prove you’re unique and alive, not a bot or attacker
First liveness check, checks you’re a real human Calculates unique ID from picture of eye – from eye muscle – only eye biometric data really works, fingerprint and face don’t
Iris hash stored in L2
User can then prove they’re among a set of people
But doesn’t reveal public or private key – only proves you belong to a group of people
DB of iris hashes is stored on an L2
Team is very extreme on privacy
Biometrics aren’t your identity, just your passport Orb users receive 2 key pairs – one is eg ETH wallet private & public key, second is biometric data keys (semaphore key?)
Only thing you can prove from the hash is that you belong to a group of users (eg, you use a specific app) – which is more secure than eg, your Google username
Expect to eventually open source hardware designs
SC: Concern that hardware becomes hacked or corrupted, open sourcing hardware would be helpful. Is there a nightmare scenario?
Real concern is malicious people who build own orbs and pretend it’s the official Orb
Need to be very transparent and educational about this
SC: Got a DNA kit for Xmas, but decided to send it back – it’s the unknown unknowns he can’t square
Worldcoin is truly privacy preserving by its design and usage of ZKPs
Token is L2 on Ethereum, optimistic rollup Will allow minting token on other blockchains like Solana or Near
Right now if you lose your semaphore key (the Orb specific key), then you lose your identity – still need to solve for this
They’re building own app to help with onboarding
New users sign up, receive Worldcoin tokens, with governance rights
Experimenting with incentive mechanisms 10B tokens, capped supply, 8B to users
Early users receive more tokens – a gradual unlock over time (eg, 2 years) – more like UBI Other projects will also airdrop to Worldcoin network – should start happening soon
They’re very excited about UBI, especially when AGI gets closer
If reach supply cap (eg, if literally everyone in world adopts it), let’s see what governance / community decides to do
Started as small team in SF apartment
Plan to make 50K of these orbs every year
Already onboarded 450K with just 30 devices – think about the eventual scale
Each device can onboard 800-2K people/week – the numbers are much better than they initially thought
Operational load is insane – how to educate, properly onboard
30 devices – spread widely, very experimental, across globe (Europe, Africa, Indonesia, etc) Want to find operators who would otherwise run companies
Strong Pareto distribution – the best ones onboard a lot more people
Eg, operator ran a crypto club in Kenya, onboards a lot of young people there
Worldcoin not tradable today – you receive IOUs today – wait until main net goes live
Young people find it cool and exciting
Becomes platform for other protocols and tokens
Orb operators receive stablecoin payments, not Worldcoin
How do you align operators?
Eg, operator could trick people, go to elderly home and scan everyone’s irises
Tough problem, still experimenting, seeing these problems already with just 30 orbs
Corporate structure US entity, German entity, Swiss foundation
Small team in SF, most of team in Europe – in small town in middle of Germany, did this during covid so they could work together Swiss foundation for token issuance
Figuring out how to properly setup DAO, with governance rights, etc
Raised $25M from top VCs @ $1B valuation – a16z, SBF, CoinFund, etc
Plan 10% to foundation, 10% to external investors (including above VCs)
// I’m not sure if he’s referring to token allocation or equity ownership in company
FE: How does this align with fair launch mission? If want to do global UBI coin but insiders own 20%
20% is less than other projects, those investors like cdixon are great partners to have, but early advisors / investors thought it was too low and wouldn’t work
Even now they think it’s a struggle since hardware + global scale requires a lot of capital
Incentives should all be aligned around the token, not the company itself
SC: seems like it should be a public good
“It will become a public good”
“I love our investors”
FE: What’s the meme for Worldcoin?
Bitcoin is 0.9 Gini coefficient, Worldcoin will be 0.4 (much better)
Everyone gets ownership in this thing, new playing field
FE: You’re creating value first and foremost for the investors…is it gonna rub people the wrong way? Will it get forked?
We can adapt and change – issue other tokens – etc – have talked to Balaji about this too
SC: Ukraine conflict will accelerate crypto regulation
In 20 years, how will WC make world better?
Solve Sybil resistance
Biggest onboarding to web3 See path to 1B users in <3 years – “was very surprising to us”
UBI deployment
Expect 10M+ users by end of 2022
Open SDK soon – under 3 months
Orbs will lead to different user distribution than other crypto networks – because orb operators spread geographically, and then onboard high penetration locally
This network will give other builders access to lots of new users
Will launch Discord and Telegram relatively soon
FE: wouldn’t personally use biometrics, prefers “web of trust” to scale in truly decentralized manner – “you don’t want to have a conductor for this”